What will JP decide?

Which Race

  • MTOY should run in the Supreme Hurdle

    Votes: 24 88.9%

  • MTOY should run in the Champion Hurdle

    Votes: 3 11.1%
  • Total voters
    27
Tanlic

Tanlic

Senior Jockey
Joined
Dec 6, 2011
Messages
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Location
Bangkok Thailand
Most of us would love to be in JP McManus's shoes but right now I'd hate to be the one to make a decision on where MTOY will run at The Festival.

No matter which way he goes he's possibly going to upset someone. Of course they are big men and will take it on the chin publicly but I'd imagine either AP and Nicky will be none too pleased privately.

No matter what AP says publicly he must realize that he has a good chance to win both the Supreme on Jezki and the Champion Hurdle on My Tent OR Yours as could JP could.

With AP and JP's only other chance of winning the Champion Hurdle lies with Binocular it's hardly likely they could secure the double with him surely past his best.

JP has always been very supportive of his trainers and he must be aware running MTOY would be a bit of a kick in the teeth for Nicky Henderson.

What I have been led to believe as they think Grandouet will win the Champion Hurdle and like everyone else MTOY would win the Superme standing on his head. If it turns out that way then Nicky comes out on top but AP and JP lose out on possibly winning a Champion Hurdle.

Hard decision for JP to make: Does he listen to Nicky Henderson and keep MTOY to Novice V Novice or does he go Champion Hurdle with him.

I hope he supports Nicky Henderson's veiw and goes to the Supreme desopite I had a bet a small on MTOY just forthe hell of it..Grassy''s fault!!

My own view, at least I think I think it is, is JP should run him in the Suprme because that's what the trainer has advised and it's not all because Nicky can grab 2 prizes the form Grandouet has been in he'll kick MTOY into touch anyway.

MTOY looked awesome at Newbury against handicappers but he did that on the bridle. When he's come off the bridle in the past he's never found a lot and I can not see him not coming off the bridle against Champion Hurdle horses.

The question is if you were JP why and where would you run MTOY?
 
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Even a cautious assessment of the Betfair form would suggest that it is good enough to win a decent running of the Supreme.

With MTOY not looking extended to win there, you would have to think he has a seriously good chance in the novice event. I'd personally have more faith in his form chance than that of Jezki; largely because it's difficult to know exactly what the latter has acheived (in terms of the level he has reached) in his outings.

Running MTOY in a Champion Hurdle is an different matter. Despite being hugely impressive at Newbury, he did win a handicap off 149 on bad ground, and he would face an altogether much tougher examination in a Champion Hurdle.

Clearly, there is the promise of more to come from MTOY, but I question whether there is enough to come in the short-term, to make him truly competitive in a Champion Hurdle. I have had some cover in the event that he is switched, but facing-down horses like Hurricane Fly, Zarkander, RoR and Grandouet, will put the gun to his head - and I don't think he really needs that at this stage of his career.
 
I doubt very much JP is going to be swayed by a few opinions on a forum. As ever he will do what suits him best and from past experience leave any decision as late as possible.

Always think it's important to confirm where you are coming from on threads like this - for what it's worth I have had small bets at 9/4 for the Supreme and 10/1 for the Champion - financially it makes little difference to me where he goes.

At this stage nobody knows how good My Tent Or Yours is and that probably includes those most closely connected with the horse.

My guess would be that he wouldn't need much improvement to go very close in a Champion. With the possible exception of Cotton Mill (on the good ground) he is the one horse who could take a significant leap forward.

We are not talking vintage 70's style opposition. Hurricane Fly was woeful last year and although he has continued on his merry way against second raters you have to wonder whether even a reproduction of his defeat of Peddlers Cross would be good enough. In my opinion he is plenty short enough. I would bracket Zarkander and Grandouet as not being good enough. Zarkander just looks too slow and Grandouet has suffered a little setback and could easily be a lesser version of My Tent Or Yours. Assuming the ground dries Rock On Ruby is the most solid alternative but on all known evidence he is no more than an average Champion Hurdle winner.

Not a big statistics man but it appears six would be just about the right age for a first time winner.

To me it would be a strange decision to forsake the chance of winning two races, including one of the major prizes, just to have the first and second favourites in the Supreme.

Yes, My Tent Or Yours is unproven at Cheltenham so he could potentially disappoint in either race.
 
JP hasn't been afraid to have multiple Supreme runners in the past-Cardinal Hill/Joe Mac and Captain Cee Bee/ Joe Mac spring to mind.I would make it odds on that MTOY doesn't run in the Champion.
Jezki at an ew price could be a nice start to the meeting.
 
treetangle said:
Always think it's important to confirm where you are coming from on threads like this - for what it's worth I have had small bets at 9/4 for the Supreme and 10/1 for the Champion - financially it makes little difference to me where he goes.
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My position on this matter is 100% influenced by my bets on MTOY for the Supreme (some of which I have laid to get Champion Hurle cover at 18/1).

There is also the small matter of me not needing any free-radicals in opposition to the Fly.

There is also the other small matter of me having had a £10 Trixie Betafir Multiple with MTOY (17/1 - Supreme), Hurricane Fly (5/1) and Bobs Worth (5/1).

In short, I don't want MTOY anywhere near the fecking Champion Hurdle!! :cool:
 
LUKE said:
JP hasn't been afraid to have multiple Supreme runners in the past-Cardinal Hill/Joe Mac and Captain Cee Bee/ Joe Mac spring to mind.I would make it odds on that MTOY doesn't run in the Champion.
Jezki at an ew price could be a nice start to the meeting.
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Difference being none of those were ever being considered for the Champion.
 
But it's a typing mistake and for Cardinal Hill/Joe Mac read Captain Cee Bee/Binocular - who most certainly was considered for the Champion.

I have MTOY at 16s, 14s & 10s so like Grassy I don't want him even contemplated for the CH but while McCoy was pretty adamant at Newbury that he wouldn't go down the CH route this year, I cannot see why JP would foresake the chance of 2 winners (1 the biggest hurdle race of the season) to be double handed in just the novice event.

Unless of course Nicky tells him his novice has no chance of beating Grandouet (who I have for the CH so another reason I need MTOY to run in the opener).

Lee
 
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Champion Hurdle Price: 13
Champion Hurdle WAR price: 5
Perceived odds of running in the CH: 2.6 (8/5)
 
My apologies.

I don't have a tenner Trixie at all - I have a £7 Treble on MTOY (16/1), HF (5/1) and BW (4/1).

I do have a £30 Treble about Jezki (9/2), HF (9/2) and BW (7/2) though, so have some degree of cover in the event that MTOY is re-routed.
 
Is Grandouet going straight to the festival without another run? When was the last winner of the CH to do so with it's last run before the turn of the year.
 
Have backed Jezki at double figure prices and also on Grandouet quite big.From a selfish point of view I hope he goes to the supreme as favourites have a shocking record on stats!!!:lol:
 
in all fairness it would be a worry for most horses but his trainer is the master at having them ready for the big day.

grandouet's profile appears very similar to see you then who was so fragile he only raced once or twice a season but he won three champion hurdles.

if you were a grandouet backer or fan my main worry would be actually getting him there in one piece. if he does i'd imagine he'll be fit & ready on the day.
 
He shouldn't run in the champion but would have more than a good chance of winning it. The reason why not is that he is still a handful and a bit immature and for that very race you want him to win it in the easiest fashion without marks being left. Might all seem contradictory this but its a case of maximising his ability at the right stages

There's some peculiar backtracking on his win last week. Suggestions that all the other runners were not suited by the pace or didn't run to form, yes all of them, have been bandied about. Paralysis by analysis. This is one very very talented horse, every single one have been bandied about. Bollocks. This is one very very talented horse
 
Yes good cheers Grass.

Getting a bit concerned about the MTOY / Grandouet situations though so thought I'd hunt Fist down in the hope that some of his Nicky love rubs off on me and restores my confidence :lol:

and a bit like you, I only tend to appear during the proper racing season...

Hope you're well mate.

Lee
 
treetangle said:
Binocular considered for the Champion as a 4yo?
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No he wasn't even going to run at Cheltenham until the 11th hour. Nicky wanted to run him in the Triumph but was told no because the cash was down on JP would be certainty trained by Alan King......The Champion Hurdle was never considered and Nicky was left hanging and told the media he thought he'd probably miss the festival and go to Aintree.

Then they decided two heads were better than one but Captain Cee Bee was never as highly thought of as Jezki or MTOY are so whether it's relevant to this thread is debatable. King horse was thought to be JP's best novice at the time.
 
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