What wins the Cheltenham Festival handicaps?

Outsider said:
How do you work that out D.
136 last chase and 133? Hurdles
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If people reckon he might be a festival good thing over hurdles off 133 then by implication they fancy he's possibly a 143 hurdler. Hurdlers, when they go chasing, tend to be 10+lbs better in that discipline so he could be a 153+ chaser getting to run off 136.
 
Burdett Road might now miss the Champion Hurdle and run in the County instead.

Unfortunately, having done so well to go straight to the Greatwood off 133, I really don't think they did the horse any favours by going to Kempton for the Christmas Hurdle.

They got third place prize money, but I'd say that's scant compensation for the further 8lb hike that came with it.

Burdett Road is now 17lb higher than when winning the Greatwood and I've got a feeling 150 is as good as he is over hurdles.
 
The connections are no idiots. I reckon if 150 was his limit I don't think they'd have taken in the Christmas Hurdle. I agree he shouldn't have gone for it but he took Lossie out of her comfort zone and she went on to set a killer pace last weekend.

I'm keeping an open mind about the Leopardstown race. I have a sneaking suspicion that State Man might have folded had she not fallen. One thing I found strange, possibly telling, was the puff of his cheeks Townend made as he crossed the line. That looked like pure relief.
 
edgt said:
Frontrunner's good thing for a handicap was Git Maker if he runs in Kim Muir after being runner up last year.
Depends on how you rate Saturday's run at Haydock, I suppose.
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Looking at how lethargic he was for the first three miles it looked like a good prep run for his next start. It turned out to be an eye catching run.

I like him for the Kim Muir, but Danny from this parish reckons he will now go for the Midlands National or Scottish National.

Those cheeky people at Bet 365 go a stand out 33/1 for the Kim Muir, as if they know something, and I find this off putting.
 
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Marb said:
Yes looking at how lethargic he was for the first two and a half miles it looked like a good prep run for his next start.

I like him for the Kim Muir, but Danny from this parish reckons he will now go for the Midlands National or Scottish National.

And those cheeky people at Bet 365 go a stand out 33/1 for the Kim Muir, as if they know something, and I find this off putting.
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I must be seeing things.

Bet 365 now 20/1.

They were 33s after Saturday.

I'm not sure if this is because they've gone NRNB or something?
 
I'm keen on Transmission if he goes for the NHC and Kabral du Mathan in the County although would fear the JP wank in that race. Pinkerton would also carry my money in the Plate as long as the ground isn't too bad.
 
I've decided to cover all my bets with Gericault Roque. I'm acutely aware of Remastered's credentials and it keeps bugging me that Tom Scu has opted for GR instead. It's the one runner that I could see me looking back at after it won and kicking myself for not backing it.
Gericault Roque ( David Pipe ) finished 3rd to Le Milos in the Coral Cup at Newbury here and then missed the following two years having got jarred up in the race. One run in January at Windsor wasn't bad and there's previous Festival form with a 2nd to Corach Rambler in the 2022 Ultima Chase. Holds entries ( off 131) in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase and the revised National Hunt Chase as still a novice. Same connections won the Ultima in successive years with Un Temps Pour Tout. Still only a nine-year-old despite the long absence.
 
A question for you good people.

So entries came out yesterday.

If a horse were to win before the official weights are out, whenever that is, would their official mark go up in the handicap, or would they be given a penalty, thereby making it easier to get a run?

I only ask this, as my good doctor, TJ Eckleburg is only rated 125 at the moment, but he's entered on Saturday at Chepstow, where I'm hoping if he wins he could sneak in the handicap for the Grand Annual.

All pie in the sky thinking, you understand, but any help appreciated, and stranger things have happend?
 
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Robicheaux said:
Trying to get the 20s Nrnb J. Machin at betfair, without success alas.
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I was quite impressed with the horse who finished directly behind him last time, Classic King, who was staying on at the finish as well as anything and has hit a career-high performance wise in his last two runs.

I get Machin is a Skelton and therefore appealing as a plot job, but if you look at Classic King last time, he's on some sort of an upward curve, and he's an interesting contender?
 
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Marb said:
A question for you good people.

So entries came out yesterday.

If a horse were to win before the official weights are out, whenever that is, would their official mark go up in the handicap, or would they be given a penalty, thereby making it easier to get a run?

I only ask this, as my good doctor, TJ Eckleburg is only rated 125 at the moment, but he's entered on Saturday at Chepstow, where I'm hoping if he wins he could sneak in the handicap for the Grand Annual.

All pie in the sky thinking, you understand, but any help appreciated, and stranger things have happend?
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I was looking up a horse rated 127 yesterday ( Demnat - Venetia Williams ) and checked on the Racing Post website on the penalty structure for possibly sneaking into a handicap at the bottom of the weights.
Looks like the weights are published next Tuesday 25th , and there is a 5 pound penalty for the winner of a chase after Sunday 23rd February.
132 was the lowest rated horse to get a run in last year's Grand Annual so your horse may have to win by a good margin. Demnat has an entry for Warwick on Friday too.
 
The already-shortening Kopeck De Mee may be of interest not least because of the more lenient way the BHA Handicapper traditionally converts French Handicap marks from kilograms to pounds compared to the Irish assessor.
 
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