Well the first bit is probably straight forward if the question posed is tantamount to which way won't he go? and I notice that the bookies have pushed him out for the GC and Champion Chase, whilst shortening him for the RyanAir as favourite.
I've given it a bit of thought as I had high hopes for him this season, and my simple conclusion is that he doesn't stay 3 miles, and never did. The grounds for believing he would are understandable, but probably flawed, and Alan King has compounded this with a few errors that might now haunt the horse.
Now detractors of my hypothesis will point to a stayers hurdle victory? So what. It's not necessary to be able to stay a truly run 3 miles, on spring ground, against what are largely inferior horses, off what is invariably a false pace, to win this race.
It would have been interesting to see if he were capable of winning this race had he been required to run a true grade 1 time, instead of bowling along about 30L's off this level of class. I'm tempted to conclude now that he would have been one of those host of casualties that I've speculated would be exposed and have been pulled up if the race was truly run. It also helps underline a bit, my suspicion that the calibre of horses contesting the stayers lack true grade 1 credentials, and most certainly in terms of its depth, and this is where Alan King's gone wrong.
His Hurdles records at 24F+ in grade 1 reads 1, 1, 1, 2 - whilst his chase record at the same distance in the same grade reads 5 & PU. I can't have it that this is down to fences. He's never fallen at one to the best of my knowledge, and did win what's starting to look like a decent Arkle, as well as a few other assignments en route. If he couldn't jump like Iris's Gift for instance, he could never have made this transition.
What I'm hypothesising is that Alan's been seduced into believing MWDS gets 3 miles based on his hurdles performances where he was able to compensate for his lack of true stamina by taking on horses of questionable ability at typically compassionate speeds.
Now because grade 1 staying chasers are run to grade 1 times (unlike their false cousins over hurdles) he's been exposed for trip rather than fencing, when sent chasing. It also accounts to my mind at least, why King was reasonably bullish about having the horse right prior to Haydock, and making positive noises etc My best guess now is that he was sending out all the signals in his home work which he'd done previously before going on to triumph in both the Stayers and the Arkle. King I suspect had been seduced by these signs, and had failed to legislate for the fact that even if finely tuned to his normal level of preparation, the horse was still going into unknown territory having never been asked to run 3 miles before at a true pace. It accounts for why he travelled perfectly well on the first circuit at Haydock, even looking to be going better than Kauto Star. He laid up with him effortlessly for about 2.2 to 2.4 furlongs, but with about half a mile to go, he hit the wall. Bang.
Or to put it another way
Arkle = can jump a fence? Yes
World Hurdle = gets a true 3 miles at grade 1? No
King was at a bit of a loss afterwards, and incorrectly deduced that the horse wasn't ready and that he'd left too much to do on him etc This I believe was a wrong conclusion. What i think he should have realised was that he'd got the horse right and he'd done his job correctly, but critically, that he doesn't stay 3 miles against grade 1 chasers. Staying the trip against so called grade 1 hurdlers is a totally different, and infinately easier assignment, as thier collective lack of ability conceals any fragility, which in turns seduces connections into false conclusions.
Having therefore drawn the wrong explanation from Haydock, he compounded this mistake and proceeded to hammer the horse at home, as he was operating under the a mis-diagnosis at pointed towards fitness and lack of preparation. Wrong!!! He'd been telling the media all week that MWDS had been put through a rigourous regime and the evidence of that was apparent today. Because he'd been over-trained for the King George he looked decidely off colour and pulled up shattered. At least at Haydock he was race fit and primed to go, albeit at the wrong distance unless of course he was meeting obliging slow boat hurdlers.
Now what damage might have been done I don't know, but i can't help feeling Alan King has got thsi one very badly wrong, and it stems from over-rating the strength of, and not necessarily appreciating the nature of, the stayers hurdle. This he compounded by blaming himself for Haydock, when the explanation lay elsewhere. The unfortunate problem with his mis-diagnosis, is that once he convinced himself of it, he locked himself into a suicidal response, which played out today and ended with a PU in the left hand column.
MWDS if given a break to recover from the Barbury Castle boot camp, is still the stables best 2 miler I believe, and is a more likely winner of the Champion Chase than VPU. The RyanAir looks to me as if it could become just about the most competitive grade 1 at the festival, with so many being scarred off the Gold Cup route. I reckon the 2 mile Champion might not be the easier assignment?
I've given it a bit of thought as I had high hopes for him this season, and my simple conclusion is that he doesn't stay 3 miles, and never did. The grounds for believing he would are understandable, but probably flawed, and Alan King has compounded this with a few errors that might now haunt the horse.
Now detractors of my hypothesis will point to a stayers hurdle victory? So what. It's not necessary to be able to stay a truly run 3 miles, on spring ground, against what are largely inferior horses, off what is invariably a false pace, to win this race.
It would have been interesting to see if he were capable of winning this race had he been required to run a true grade 1 time, instead of bowling along about 30L's off this level of class. I'm tempted to conclude now that he would have been one of those host of casualties that I've speculated would be exposed and have been pulled up if the race was truly run. It also helps underline a bit, my suspicion that the calibre of horses contesting the stayers lack true grade 1 credentials, and most certainly in terms of its depth, and this is where Alan King's gone wrong.
His Hurdles records at 24F+ in grade 1 reads 1, 1, 1, 2 - whilst his chase record at the same distance in the same grade reads 5 & PU. I can't have it that this is down to fences. He's never fallen at one to the best of my knowledge, and did win what's starting to look like a decent Arkle, as well as a few other assignments en route. If he couldn't jump like Iris's Gift for instance, he could never have made this transition.
What I'm hypothesising is that Alan's been seduced into believing MWDS gets 3 miles based on his hurdles performances where he was able to compensate for his lack of true stamina by taking on horses of questionable ability at typically compassionate speeds.
Now because grade 1 staying chasers are run to grade 1 times (unlike their false cousins over hurdles) he's been exposed for trip rather than fencing, when sent chasing. It also accounts to my mind at least, why King was reasonably bullish about having the horse right prior to Haydock, and making positive noises etc My best guess now is that he was sending out all the signals in his home work which he'd done previously before going on to triumph in both the Stayers and the Arkle. King I suspect had been seduced by these signs, and had failed to legislate for the fact that even if finely tuned to his normal level of preparation, the horse was still going into unknown territory having never been asked to run 3 miles before at a true pace. It accounts for why he travelled perfectly well on the first circuit at Haydock, even looking to be going better than Kauto Star. He laid up with him effortlessly for about 2.2 to 2.4 furlongs, but with about half a mile to go, he hit the wall. Bang.
Or to put it another way
Arkle = can jump a fence? Yes
World Hurdle = gets a true 3 miles at grade 1? No
King was at a bit of a loss afterwards, and incorrectly deduced that the horse wasn't ready and that he'd left too much to do on him etc This I believe was a wrong conclusion. What i think he should have realised was that he'd got the horse right and he'd done his job correctly, but critically, that he doesn't stay 3 miles against grade 1 chasers. Staying the trip against so called grade 1 hurdlers is a totally different, and infinately easier assignment, as thier collective lack of ability conceals any fragility, which in turns seduces connections into false conclusions.
Having therefore drawn the wrong explanation from Haydock, he compounded this mistake and proceeded to hammer the horse at home, as he was operating under the a mis-diagnosis at pointed towards fitness and lack of preparation. Wrong!!! He'd been telling the media all week that MWDS had been put through a rigourous regime and the evidence of that was apparent today. Because he'd been over-trained for the King George he looked decidely off colour and pulled up shattered. At least at Haydock he was race fit and primed to go, albeit at the wrong distance unless of course he was meeting obliging slow boat hurdlers.
Now what damage might have been done I don't know, but i can't help feeling Alan King has got thsi one very badly wrong, and it stems from over-rating the strength of, and not necessarily appreciating the nature of, the stayers hurdle. This he compounded by blaming himself for Haydock, when the explanation lay elsewhere. The unfortunate problem with his mis-diagnosis, is that once he convinced himself of it, he locked himself into a suicidal response, which played out today and ended with a PU in the left hand column.
MWDS if given a break to recover from the Barbury Castle boot camp, is still the stables best 2 miler I believe, and is a more likely winner of the Champion Chase than VPU. The RyanAir looks to me as if it could become just about the most competitive grade 1 at the festival, with so many being scarred off the Gold Cup route. I reckon the 2 mile Champion might not be the easier assignment?
