Which Way De Solzen

I was talking about that this morning with a friend actually - although he's still having winners, King has had a few horses disappoint over the last week or so. I wonder if there's a bug starting to go around the yard or something.
 
Won the 2 mile chase at Kempton, the Grade 1 hurdle at Chepstow and just touched off in the Welsh National.

He may well be getting a bug or something but it looked a lack of interest on MWDS part at Kempton more than anything else.
 
I agree, it did look like a lack of interest on MWDS part but if he's not right that could be why - he hasn't looked remotely ungenuine before.

If there is a virus starting in the yard then it is entirely possible that they are still getting winners as it doesn't spread instantly and not every horse will be affected. King's had enough fancied runners run disappointingly over Christmas for that thought to enter my head, and that of the friend I was talking to earlier. It's also interesting to hear what HS says about the two barns - horses in one could be affected more than horses in another. Barn stabling systems are very good but in the case of bugs going around, they tend to spread that bit quicker in such environments.
 
The main block is two big barns, but they are long with stalls either side of an aisle, in one case with another single aisle running parallel - and although interconnected, they are separated by a section with all the food stores etc so they are not that open to air passing through - the walkway between is a kind of dogleg. The third barn is quite a trot away - 20 yards or so. The other boxes are quite a bit further away again, and iirc they are all quite small - c12/20 horses only. The horses are exercised only with others in their barn or section, so it would be quite hard for any virus to pass right round the yard - it would tend to stay within the one it started in.

Seems the most likely explanation to me, Zirkel's run today was too bad to be true and he wasn't the only one recently
 
That could be the case, although Zirkel isn't in the same stables as My Way De Solzen.

I actually think he is in the same stable as Voy Por Ustedes.

If My Way De Solzen had a virus then you would have to look at Blazing Bailey, Pouvoir, Halcon Genelardais, etc... who are all in the same stable, yet they seem ok, especially the latter 2.
 
Blazing Bailey has also mystified his trainer lately with some bad performances when he had been working well.

I had a horse who had a virus for a few months, could not shake it off and altho it worked fine at home once on the track, with additional pressure over a longer distance and time, it always folded. Finally we found the virus and got rid of it.

The virus theory would make sense. My Way is quite genuine and is a gentleman, cannot imagine him getting fed up with the job.

And you know how it is, some horses, like some people, escape getting the bug even when the ones next door have it so maybe Voy Por and Francheok (who is in the very top barns anyway far from the ones near the house) are just more immune.
 
Regarding the calibre of the horse's contesting staying hurdles;

In the first case I used the plural, although of course accept the thread is ostensibly about MWDS, even though it's inevitable that such debates will ultimately broaden out. Singling out MWDS gave me the germ of idea though.

If Cheltenham is the self-styled 'equine Olympics of jump racing' then its surely not unreasonable to expect the novices who turn up there and contest the grade 1 feature hurdles to be the best emerging talent on offer (fitness permitting)? Now my suspicion about the Staying Hurdle division is that it's the "last station on the line", and thus attracts those horses who haven't been able to "get off elsewhere".

What I've tried to do to illustrate this is take the class of 2005 (MWDS's) and track them through their journey. It is not unreasonable to assume by now, that nearly 3 years on, these novices will have matured and found their level?

The results are quite interesting, and I'd suggest support my hypothesis by virtue of the way the gene pool thins out, with the stayers being the last port of call. Some of the horses mix their assingments between hurdles and fences, and others mix their distances up too, I've tried to reflect however as faithfully as i can how they were campaigned.

Arcalis = Champion Hurdle > County Hurdle; 2 mile Hurdles
Wild Passion = Nov Chs > 2 mile open company > finally stepping up mid dist chases
Dusky Warbler (no relation) = Mid dist H'cap H's > Nov Chasing
Prins Willem = Couple of spins at mid dist H's > predominantly onto the flat there after
Aleron = Nov H's > Flat > H'cap H's > H'cap Chases > finally onto staying H'cap Chases
CHILLING PLACE = Mid dist Nov Chasers > H'Cap H's > Staying H'cap H's
Publican = Chasing > Staying H'cap Chasing
Justified = Nov Chasing > Open Company 2 - 2.5 mile Chasing
Akshar = Flat > a couple of chases > back to the flat & H'caps
Manorson = H'cap H > Chasing
Stan = Nov Chasing > H'cap Chasing predominantly 2 miles
Shuhood = Died Novice chasing shortly after
Marcel = Nov Chasing > Chasing 2 - 2.5 miles
Cherub = H'cap H's > Nov Chasing
MY WAY DE SOLZEN = Staying H's > Nov Chasing > Chasing open company at staying trips
Akhtari = Mid dist H's > Mid dist Nov Chasing > Staying H'cap Chases
Villon = 1 run over fences, dead/ retired?
Perfect Storm = 2 mile H'cap H's > Flat > selling and claiming H's
Only Vintage = Mid dist H'cap H's > staying Nov and H'cap Chasing
Maddiba = A/W H'caps and other low grade affairs on the flat

In short only two horses from this grade 1 field of 20, pursued a line that resulted in them contesting staying hurdles with any sense of regularity and campaign. They finished 6th and 15th respectively. Now if this is typical of the sort of through put, it's hardly surprising that the division ends up being stripped of talent.

I thought I'd role it out to the Sun Alliance Hurdle too. I'll spare you a blow by blow account of the precise routes taken by eahc horse as illustrated above, they can become convuluted a bit, but broadly speaking the horses that contested the 2005 renewal ended up as follows;

Hurdles = 3
Chasing = 16
Flat = 1

By now of course we were blessed with a grade 2 novice hurdle for stayers which has alarmingly been raised to grade 1 this season with no apparent evidence to support it's status (unless of course it's a testimony to BJK norty ). To some extent this represents part of what I'm suggesting, hence my earlier reference to existentialism earlier. I see it, or do I? does it exist or doesn't it? Do i believe it or don't I? Just because the HRA call it a grade 1, do i have to believe they're right?. Anyway, the production line from 2005 reads

Hurdles = 6
Chasers = 12

Combining the three grade1/2 novice hurdles from 2005 therefore gives the following;

Hurdles = 11
Chases = 40
Flat = 4

Now with the better horses who stay over hurdles the following year likely to remain focused at 2 miles (Arcalis etc) it does make you wonder just what is being filtered through to the staying division, if only 20% are predominantly contesting hurdles races 2 and half years later, and how accurate a grade 1 tag is, if it is then applied to them somewhat disingeniously to capture those who failed to win? The Supreme supplied a future winner admittedly , who finished 15th in his class of 2005, it also supplied one Chilling Place (6th) who went over fences but has since returned to staying handicap hurdles.

The previous investigation as to where top 3 finishers were sourced from revealed a similar pattern. The correlation between 1st or 2nd placed finishers in the novice grade 1 hurdles going into open 2 mile company the following season was quite stark (see previous list). Few that ended up in the staying division had true grade 1 credentials as novices. Of the four I was prepared to conceed did, (off a bigger numerical sample) 3 went onto win the main event a total of 5 times between them to date (which would have probably been 6 were it not for F&M). It was also noticable how quite a few of the horses that have made the frame over the last 10 years came to the divison through mid distance handicap hurdles, or were campaigned specifically at staying hurdles outside of the Festival. Again, the evidence points to a kind of comparative calibre deficiency when set alongside the sourcing of 2 mile grade 1 hurdlers.

From a novice crop of 55 horses at the 2005 festival, so far as I can see, only 3 (5% of the grade 1 cream) went onto run in a World Hurdle in the next 2 renewals.

Against this kind of backdrop you'll understand that I'm slightly sceptical about what the true value of the stayers is, and aren't necessarily convinced just because the HRA pin a grade 1 label on it, that it is. I'd also ask you all to open your minds to the possibility that it's abit of a confidence trick potentially, instead of blindly following the HRA. It would also go some way towards accounting for why the division consistently runs the slowest times, and consistently does so by about 13% below a grade 1 par. With this in mind I'd be wary of making too much of MWDS's grade 1 wins, but they are on the board, and as has been said, he can only beat those put in front of him. having saisd that, he appear to be something of a late developer, and was insulated in a weak division that didn't expose any stamina limitations he might have had at 3 miles.

Do I think he's a grade 1 animal? Yes, and at 2 miles over fences, a very good one.

Do i think World Hurdlers are generally grade 1 horses? No, with a handful of exceptions.

I could go onto the value of the stopwatch etc.... we've had this argument before. The only thing I'll reiterate is that any horse can win a race, and there's many ways of doing it. However, only the very best horses can win top races, in very fast times. There's no other consistent explanation for accounting why horses X can cover ground Y in Z time. Why don't stayers hurdlers ever seem to be able to do it? I don't know, but I susepct they aren't really good enough, and we give them too much credit.

Dessie has trotted out the Lindop explanation as this one is often put up by those who wish to attack the line of investigation. As he's pointed out, it's without real grounds, but for some reason (presumebly it was given an less than fully informed airing?) appears to have gone into folklore as the impregnable defence.


Hope that helps a bit, and I'd even written out an explanation in word with all sorts of graphs and different colour lines to try and explain the MWDS trip thing, only for the software on this package to refuse to accept it cry.

The only observation I'd make about a virus in the yard, is that it tends to get punted around when a few poor performances occur, as it makes for a convenient explanation. I should perhaps say though having observed similar discussions previously, this one looks a bit desperate. It's either amighty selective virus, or it's box hopping depending on how a horse runs. It does have more of the look of someone trying to create a virus to fit a hope. For the time being, I'm prepared to go with the notion that MWDS doesn't stay a truly run 3 miles, but does stay a moderate to easy 3 miles
 
Originally posted by Warbler@Dec 28 2007, 10:45 PM

If Cheltenham is the self-styled 'equine Olympics of jump racing' then its surely not unreasonable to expect the novices who turn up there and contest the grade 1 feature hurdles to be the best emerging talent on offer

The only observation I'd make about a virus in the yard, is that it tends to get punted around when a few poor performances occur, as it makes for a convenient explanation. I should perhaps say though having observed similar discussions previously, this one looks a bit desperate. It's either amighty selective virus, or it's box hopping depending on how a horse runs. It does have more of the look of someone trying to create a virus to fit a hope.
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On the first point I've singled out, that's because the most valuable 'all age equal weight' race is staged there and because of relentless hype over the last few years, it's now seen that way. But Cheltenham is a quirky course which doesn't suit all horses by any means. Why should a horse which prefers to go left handed be necessarily 'better' than one which doesn't? Or one which is mustard on a flat track but doesn't like jumping up and down hills be necessarily inferior? It really annoys me tbh this elevation of Cheltenham above all else.

Warbler, Your remarks about our fears of a virus would seem to indicate that you don't know much about them. They don't necessarily affect all horses in a yard. They might, for instance, be spread from barn to barn by the same lad or girl working on the horses in question and not washing etc - they pat the horses noses, feed them polos etc, and it's very easy to transfer these mucus/saliva dwelling infections like that [the same posse of lads and girls will work on a gorup of horses then move down to the next group...] Viruses can even be transmitted on tack etc and via shared water buckets. And horses - like people - have differing immune systems, some - like me - will pick up any passing bug and some will always throw them off.

Your remarks also ignore what we know about Alan King. He's an exceptional trainer who knows exactly what he has got, and what to do with it. For several of his best horses to suddenly be performing well below expectations with no discernible reason [and no loss of sparkle on the gallops] would exactly indicate a virus. It certainly *doesn't* indicate that he's suddenly forgotten how to do his job, as some of your remarks in this thread have implied :P

This has little bearing on whether or not MWDS does or doesn't stay 3 miles, something we won't find out until he's back in top form.
 
Cheers BM and Dessie :D

If you want to sit down HS and back calculate an entire season of novice hurdles progress on flat tracks, right handed tracks, soft ground, stiff tracks, galloping tracks or whatever parameter you choose to impose to try and dispute the facts, and then track each and everyone through their career development noting any achievements they made in staying hurdles, negative or positive, be my guest!!! I'll frankly be amazed if you come to a significantly different conclusion (without trying to bend any objectivity by alighting on something you think offers you the best prospects based on known performance). The sample is supposed to be snapshot, and at 55 not any insignificant one. I only selected 2005 as it was pertinent to MWDS. If I'd taken the festive period at Kempton instead, i suspect you'd be the first to point out that I'd omitted Cheltenham?

As you suggested I don't know that much about viruses, and we'll see in time. I do know how I crudely spot a stable that's likely to be affected, and it isn't necessarily in the number of wins, but rather in the ratio of PU's to wins, or in very obvious cases PU'd as a percentage of runners. Over the Xmas period King's had 7 winners and 3 PU's, not normally the sort of ratio I'd associate with a virus. The explanation at this stage looks to have all the hallmarks of the desperation that people search for when making excuses for favourite horses (and that's a geenral observation). I suspect he'll have a quiet few weeks in January, many top stables do, it's certainly not unusual this time of year.

Incidentally, since when has Alan King, or any other trainer never made an error of judgement, a mistake, or taken a wrong course of action? If you're seriously suggesting that the man's so far above such things, then I fear you've fallen under some kind of spell which has led to the suspension of your critical faculties.

FWIW, would I have done things differently if I were he? I doubt it in truth. I think I might have been more alert to the possibility (i use the word possibility deliberately) that the horse doesn't stay a truly run 3 miles than he, as I'm sure he hasn't got the time to waste scribbling away on pieces of paper and number crunching speed ratings and then plotting patterns against different race types over 10 year plus periods. I'm equally sure that if confronted with the same possibility I'd have erred on the side he did too, choosing to dismiss the race as not being a going day, although the way he ran at Haydock did show all the signs of stamina doubts (much more so than anything he did at Kempton, which pointed to another explanation, which I think I've spelt out before)

If you'd read the thread correctly of course, you'd realise that what I'd said about King was not that he'd done his job incorrectly, but quite opposite.

He'd done his job correctly up to Haydock, and I believe he'd got the horse right (as indeed did he, if his public utterances are to be believed). Afterall, he'd have been following a tried and tested regime. Where I believe he went wrong, was in mis-diagnosing the cause of the Haydock flop, something he then compounded by commiting to a punishing regime which ran an obvious risk of over-cooking the horse. Something I believe happened, but was understandable.

If however you think Alan King is 100% bomb proof, then so be it. I'm sure he's got more humility than to suggest such a thing. experts in any field of work, periodically make mistakes.
 
Yes I know even good trainers make mistakes, and AK is always the first to admit it when this happens. If this were *just* MWDS under-performing, then I'd be inclined to think he made a mistake, period. But it's not.

I happen to think AK is an exceptionally good trainer and to have so many of his horses running well below the level of what they have already achieved, indicates a physical problem in the horses. Of course he may have changed his whole training regime; but this wouldn't explain either why some horses are still running to top level and others are bombing abysmally. I think I'm right in saying btw that AK very rarely has runners which are PU, so even that is in itself an indication of something wrong [imo, anyway]

Forgive me - no I haven't been following the detail! - I took on board at the start your point about Staying hurdlers maybe not being proper Grade 1 animals and thought there was some truth in it; but I can't be arsed to follow these heavyweight forum slanging matches where the same ground is gone over several times [the words 'bees' and 'bonnets' come to mind...]. The detail is no doubt fascinating but I'm quite ill right now and I can't cope with it - I'll go back to it another time.

So my remarks about Cheltenham weren't based on your stats in particular, I was just commenting on the general assumption that what happens at Cheltenham is the be all and end all of jump racing. The course doesn't suit some very good horses at all - cf Desert Orchid
 
Have to say considering all evidence that I will probably have to take him out of our best TTTF line--but I will be gutted if he wins the Ryanair with blinkers on.
 
I wouldn't be so provocative Bar :D though thanks anyway and I suppose I'd be lying if i said it had never felt like the thread needed splitting into two divisions at times. :P

I must confess that having returned to the case in point (Which Way De Solzen) I hadn't appreciated that his 20 - 21F runs had equally been the subject of less than searching pace. Unfortunately, I don't have my own figures to hand, and don't particularly fancy back calculating them, so will rely instead on the TS - RPR analysis;

20 - 21F

TS RPR

114 158 = -44
113 149 = -36
109 158 = -49
120 148 = -28

The first three of these are BJK figures, and the nearest one (a difference of 28Ibs) he lost. All of sudden I think there might even be grounds for wondering if he's going to be vulnerable to a true pace at 21F on a stiff track in a grade 1 chase. The RyanAir looks as if it could be particularly competitive too, and there's few hiding places in this sort of company. My best guess is that he could well be right on the edge of his opertional optimum.

It might be worth digging out the Betfair Chase again and trying to work at what point you think the first non Kauto horse went past him? If he gets a moderate to decent pace in the RyanAir he should be ok, but if he gets a searching one, I think we could well see him hanging on for grim death coming up the hill. In many respects it might even look a bit like his World Hurdle victory, where he benefited from the non participation of Injured Drever, and only just hung on from a horse who'd finished 7th in a Champion hurdle (RPR - 151) under Johnny Murtagh.

I should perhaps say as well, (although it risks diversion) where did this Londop myth come from? And why have so many people seemingly adopted it as gospel without (I assume) checking it through? I can't find anything in the figures to suggest he wouldn't have come anything other than last in the Lockinge.
 
but I can't be arsed to follow these heavyweight forum slanging matches where the same ground is gone over several times [the words 'bees' and 'bonnets' come to mind...]. The detail is no doubt fascinating but I'm quite ill right now and I can't cope with it - I'll go back to it another time.
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Thats a peurile comment. It is not a slanging match, it is just a layered discussion. People don't form all their racing opinions on who the saw having a G&T with Nicky Hendersons cousin in the Ferret and Fairy in Upper Lambourn. They think about stuff and are generous enough to share it.
 
Quite right - it was never a slanging match, just the odd invective from the usual suspect, but it was largely one way traffic in that respect and no one recipricated. Anyway I'm sure people are more than capable of drawing their own conclusions, (well most anyway it would appear).

Back to the possibilty that MWDS might struggle to stay a true run 21F. Having attempted to watch the Betafir Chase again on You Tube (its one of those stop/start affairs that I never seem to know how to let run), it appears that MWDS is being ridden in the final quarter of the top turn into the home straight and is clearly struggling as they come over the fourth last. It is obvious that had the chasing pack wanted to pass him at this point, they could have done. It is only when he reaches the third from home however, that Exotic Dancer jumps past him.

Now the wonders of Google Earth and GPS can be brought into play here (I've got a new toy too Mordin :P ). If you position yourself 300 metres above Haydock, click on the ruler icon, and select 'yards' from the drop down menu, you can trail a line from the finishing post back through all of the fences noting the precise distance between the two, dependent on the spot you want to click into as your measuring point. :dork:

The gap from the fourth last to the post is 903.19 yards, which is the point where one feels MWDS was running on empty and capable of being passed.

The gap from the third last to the post is 641.79 yards, which is the point where Exotic did pass him in the jump.

641.79 /212 = 3.02 Furlongs

In a 24 furlong race, this does point to him being passed at about 21F and being vulnerable from 19.75F's if the fourth last is used, in other words he might very well be on his limit at about thsi point unless he's been sheltered by a sympathetic pace.

Now you could say that the ground at Haydock was heavy, and that Kauto and Exotic won't be taking in the Ryan Air, and with that in mind, you'd be inclined to push the envelope a bit.

Against that though, you've got the fact that Haydock is a flat track without a punishing 2 or 3 final furlongs uphill. The list of horses who've emptied on the hill of course is legendry and it's claimed more illustrious victims than MWDS. Ireckon he's right on his limit in a true run race against specialist 2.5 mile horses. If he gets a decent pace he'll be ok, but a searching pace i think is likely to see him filling the places
 
Originally posted by an capall@Dec 29 2007, 12:41 PM
Thats a peurile comment. It is not a slanging match, it is just a layered discussion. People don't form all their racing opinions on who the saw having a G&T with Nicky Hendersons cousin in the Ferret and Fairy in Upper Lambourn. They think about stuff and are generous enough to share it.
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In fairness to Headstrong (and others) getting through Warbler's posts can be like cracking the enigma code at times. I think it's a perfectly fair point that Stayers Hurdles lack the strength in depth of the two mile division and that it's possible (especially on the New Course) for class to compensate for a relative lack of stamina. However, I don't think the production of lists of speed figures and summaries of the subsequent runs of various contenders adds anything to the clarity of the argument. The liberal smattering of metaphors and tangential arguments makes the argument even more difficult to follow.
 
Warbler is a freak and I applaud him for showing his working.

Warbler could simply tell us that My Way De Solzen is not a strong stayer, but that is not enough as people disagree and disagree strongly. Warbler could justify his statement with 'because it isn't and thats it' but that is not how he thinks and not how he expresses his opinions, even though his detractors are happy to slam him with similarly short brush offs, he continues to think, and in all fairness he tries to see where they are coming from in their disagreement.


Maths teacher ' How can I mark your work IF YOU SHOW NO WORKING ?!'


The point being that Warblers lengthy explanations fully allow us contemplate and/or mark his work, and allow himself to mark his own work, for example, going back later to tinker with a theory rather than ditch it entirely.

Many are incapable of such beyond blurting 'Kauto Star is no good' unless they expand with ' still no good and and and you'll never get me to admit its any good'. Those people don't have the attention span and don't even want to have the attention span to listen to a theory about why.

Their procedure is,

a) apply preset prejudices

b) decide in two seconds if horse is good or decide if horse is not good

c) stick to guns

d) apply head to sahara desert


I hearby dub Warbler, 'the thinking mans freak'

:dork:
Freak!




** the opinions regarding My Way De Solzen and Kauto Star are not necessarily those of the author**
 
Originally posted by an capall@Dec 29 2007, 11:41 AM
but I can't be arsed to follow these heavyweight forum slanging matches where the same ground is gone over several times time.
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Thats a peurile comment. It is not a slanging match, it is just a layered discussion. People don't form all their racing opinions on who the saw having a G&T with Nicky Hendersons cousin in the Ferret and Fairy in Upper Lambourn. They think about stuff and are generous enough to share it.
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Nor do I, as is obvious to anyone who follows what I write, and I haven't been in a Lambourn pub on more than the odd occasion [after racing] for many a month. What a damn stupid thing to say.

I'm ill. I'm awaiting a third bout of sinus surgery which might take months to come through. Meanwhile: I have severe respiratory problems due to chronic sinus disease, which mean I can hardly breathe; and hardly sleep. I haven't been out of the house or indeed out of bed since Xmas day. I can't concentrate for long, and I certainly can't follow the finer details of stats of that sort - which tbh don't interest me that much except in so far as they show a trend, and I can pick up that by skimming and reading the conclusion, as any half intelligent person could. And I don't want to read a load of SL's posts in which - as usual when she is refuting criticism of a favourite horse/trainer - just keep repeating the same point, a bit louder and more aggressively. I don't enjoy that sort of conflict [and agreed Warbler, you haven't been 'slanging' back - but you've made up in quantity what she's offered in vitriol LOL].

I've never dissed Warbler's posts, and never shall; they are obviously very well thought out and all of us can be grateful that he puts them up. That does not oblige us all to give them the same time and attention that he obviously does to write them, though those interested in such arcane details no doubt do. I take from them the bits that interest me, or to which I feel there is a response I can make, as in the case of MWDS, or yard viruses - a subject which I've not only read up a great deal in racing/horse mags, but discussed with quite a few professionals, esp trainers.

Warbler knows more about stats than I could learn in a month of Sundays, I just don't have the maths. On the other hand I know more about horses than Warbler ever will - I first rode when I was 3 or 4, my grandmother was racing mad, my godfather owned racehorses, and I've followed racing on and off all my life, intensively in the last 10 years. I've had shares in horses myself. And btw, I didn't set foot in Lambourn til I was in my mid 50s :P

I've known Alan King personally for about 5/6 years, so obviously I take a great deal of detailed interest in his career and methods, quite apart from my interest in the Elite horses in his string. I think that entitles me to an opinion on whether or not AK has just made a ballsup here, or whether there might be some other reason for his current spate of underforming runners.

There's no call for mindless insults just because I choose quite reasonably to refute Warbler's conclusion in the instance of MWDS.

I'll be kind and assume you'd just come in from the pub AC when you posted that last night :xmassanta:
 
Originally posted by rorydelargy@Dec 29 2007, 01:15 PM
You're having a laugh with that post Warbler, surely??
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Did you mean his post about GoogleEarth's view of Haydock? - I did find that fascinating in fact!

By the way, I'm not disputing Warbler's point that MWDS prob doesn't stay 3 miles, tho I don't think we can be certain til he comes back to form. His general hypothesis is really interesting.

I'm disputing that AK has made a mess of MWDS's training regime this season. I think the horse has got a physical problem, and as it's undetected this would indicate heart [like Detroit City] or virus. As others from the yard have run well below form, I lean towards virus. Hope that's all clear...
 
A ha - I thank ye Goober, and am more than happy with attached tag :D I did contemplate posting "MWDS doesn't stay a truly run 3 miles, and 95% of staying hurdlers are no better than 0-140 handicappers, and anyone who disagrees with me clearly doesn't know what they're on about. End off". But that would of course invite similar, and if this forum is ever going to elevate itself above mud slinging and pithy one liners, then the onus has to be on its contributors to delve a bit deeper. If that doesn't suit everyone, fine, just don't read the postings and contribute thus. There's plenty of threads I regard as superficial and thus leave well alone.

As regards how serious I am about MWDS staying a truly run 21F, I don't know yet, but I'm warming to the idea that he might very well be on the apex of his range in being asked to. Much beyond this, and I reckon he starts to slip down the other side and fall away in terms of performance.

Looking at it step by step;

I hadn't appreciated fully that he'd never been pitched into a truly run grade 1 race at that distance yet, and certainly not over fences. Now the over-riding logic, regardless of what I think the true calibre of staying hurdlers to be, is that a win at 3 miles in a World Hurdle, must surely entitle him to last 21F?

I'm finding that difficult to dismiss thus. Therefore I'm not suggesting he won't stay etc, what I'm saying is that he could well be on the limit of his optimum (the two things are of course very different) and this might make him vulnerable to something that has a bit more gas in the tank coming up the hill. All of this will be rendered superfluous of course if the pace isn't testing.

The next thing to do therefore is to look for evidence of him being asked to run a truly run race at a staying trip, and see how he fared. The only one I would be happy to use in the context of the Ryan Air is the Betfair Chase. It's a bit hit and miss as to when you think he was beaten in terms of emptying, and I'd be curious as to where people put it, but try and envisage at what point you think the first horse other than Kauto could have passed him and MWDS would have been unable to do anything about it.

I think it occurs turning into the home straight at about the 4th fence. In any event, Exotic Dancer actually does it when out jumping him at the 3rd from home, even though he could probably have achieved it earlier if he'd chosen to. Now I don't know what's necessarily wrong with using Google Earth to work out what distance it is from these pinpoints to the winning post? All of them are clearly visible, and as you close in to an altitude of 100 feet you can easily use the package to draw a straight line through all the fences to the winning post. As I understand it, it's NASA technology and is remarkably accurate to silly fractions, and in that respect, I'd rather rely on it, than Kirkland Tellwrong any day. Suffice to say, the yardages I've given you will be pretty damn close, and any error will be on 'my click' rather than the GPS. The 4th fence in particular, looks to be in an identical place to the race video, although I can't vouch for the third with no obvious reference point to line it up against from the video and aerial. That it involves the finishing straight, rather than the round course, also largely removes the varaible factor of running rails.

The next thing to do is to try and establish how reliable the Haydock run is as an indicator. Alan King was adamant that he had the horse right before the race. It's not unreasonable to assume that he put him through the same kind of preparation that he has done so successfully previously, and the signs he saw in the horse were similarly encouraging. I suspect what you saw is what you got on this occasion. It was only after the race when King was flannelling around for an explanation, that he raised the possibility that he'd got the prep all wrong. I honestly don't think he did. I think the horse laid up at a good clip with Kauto Star for as long as he could, and was beaten between the 4th and 3rd last, which is about 903 and 641 yards to the finish, which if converted into furlongs equals 4.25 and 3.00. If you deduct that from the 3 miles race disatnce then the pressure point is somewhere between 19.75 and 21F's. Resisting RyanAir horses though, should be easier than Kauto and Exotic, even if they might be quicker for the shorter trip.

It might seem off the wall at face value, but I don't see why we shouldn't use these new technologies a little bit. After all I seem to recall using the Isle of Wight rainfall radar early doors a few months ago to discover it had been lashing down for hours at Deauville, and duly lumped on Myboycharlie before the rest of the betting public had cottoned on and still thought Tariq was the good thing (the latter was later pulled out :angy: )

At the likely prices I'd be wary now of MWDS in a truly run 21F race as he'll be going into partially charted water for the first time, and that's not normally a place to be siding with shortish priced fav's. I would prefer to side with something like Aces Four instead. At this stage, I can see he might be vulnerable to getting snaffled in the last 170yds or so, but would prefer to check the RPR and TS's out against my own figures first.

I've got an open mind on it, but all of a sudden I'm far from certain the Ryan Air is his for the taking. I'd be much happier to see him line up for the 2 Mile Champion where I do think he stands a better chance, and if anything, I'd put the weaker horse (imo) VPU in the RyanAir.
 
Regarding Google Earth Warbler, how up-to-date is your version ?

I find it interesting that they had the fences out at the time you used it when, since the remodelling of the track, they have narrowed the national hunt course and nowadays only wheel out the jumps when they need them. My free-upload 2007 version of this program shows the course before work began and therefore the old fences in their old positions. The horses now use the old hurdle track ( inside the old chase track) for hurdles and chases with the fences and hurdles wheeled in and out for each. Nowadays they jump four fences in the home straight rather than jump three then go around the open ditch and water jump for the run-in ( no open ditch and waterjump infront of the stands nowadays)

I'm sure this won't cause too much trauma to the basis of your maths!
 
For heaven's sake Warbler, it's perfectly possible to follow the gist of an argument based on detailed stats without bothering with more than the gist, much tho it's appreciated that you take the trouble to give chapter and verse.

And it's perfectly possible, and surely permissible, when following the gist of an argument to pick up on the odd tangential remark, or even mistaken conclusion, regarding one particular horse/trainer, where they seem to be *on all of the available evidence* mistaken.

As I see it, your research into MWDS's chances of staying in a 3m chase have led you to a general hypothesis regarding staying hurdlers which is both fascinating and probably correct. It's not necessary to follow every stat to see that.

Extrapolating from your general thesis, that the trainer has got his regime for MWDS all wrong, when several other horses in the yard are running well below par as well, seems to me a non-sequitor - particularly in this instance. Saying so does not invalidate your *general* argument.

People are quite free to read whatever they like on here in whichever manner best suits their own needs and purposes; and to respond accordingly. I don't consider anything I've said in this thread to be facile or silly, nor does anything criticise your *general* conclusion.

I've just pointed out that you can't really build an argument on the case of one horse, several of whose stablemates are also running well below par, in the process blaming it all on trainer error. In widening out the argument to study a lot more horses and races you more or less accepted that yourself. Your argument in the specific case of MWDS demonstrates the usual weaknesses of relying primarily on stats, rather than starting with the horses. It's pretty obvious to those of us who know HORSES that there is something wrong with some of AK's string right now. But you've refused to address what we've had to say except to dismiss our observations as wishful thinking.

I'll leave it there as I think this thread is becoming - no, better not go there :rolleyes:
 
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