Who's good at perms?

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SlimChance

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Some of you will know I'm a big fan of the Racing UK betting Labs. On a few occasions they have mentioned the folly on betting the same amount on a long shot as a favourite when putting together a perm. I never do them but I'm fascinated to learn how to do them efficiently. Given the time of year the annual Cheltenham Tipster competitions are in the horizon so with it brings the oppurtunity to have a go at doing it correctly. I usually stick multiple entries in but I never know how to structure the entry to give me the best chance.

Any advice?
 
I was sorely tempted to make a scouse/hairdresser/Kevin Keegan jibe when I saw the thread title but couldn't bring myself to do it when I saw your post......

Ive watched all of the betting labs, great show. Sadly, multiples aren't for me so I can't help. I know the section you're talking about as well and it is pretty complex maths.
 
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The Keegan reference would have had me seething. Poor of you to be bigger than that.
 
I thought perms were simply 'any x from y' so the stake had to be the same.

I feel like I'm missing out on something. I must go and research this...
 
The woman i had was shyite at perms. Mine only used to last a week, i ended up going for the David Sylvian look. Ah the 80s.
 
I can only offer what I think, as I'm no expert in the area and don't do them too often.

If you're going to bet variably (not what I do when I do them), then it would be something along the lines of estimating the true chance of each runner, then working out the true chance of each line in the perm and staking accordingly. So you're having half on a 1000/1 line as what you are a 500/1 line (at the perceived true odds).

On top of that, you could also work out the obtainable value for each line and factor that in, though I would think just staking according to true chance and letting the value take care of itself would be enough.

Sods law dictates that if you did the above the 1000/1 line would be the winning one. I actually came very close to a huge win recently via perming. I left out a solid contender in one race and instead included a large priced 'hunch' in another. Don't think I've held my head in my hands for so long before.
 
DO, if you haven't seen the betting labs they are the RUK site - it's the one with Dave Gutfreund in it... Or however you spell his name.
 
If we're talking more than one horse in various races then it is something I do occasionally but it would be very rare to do it more than two. If I think a couple of races can be narrowed down to two serious contenders each, I have seen me betting them to varying stakes in doubles. I just call them mixed doubles. But I tend to split them into separate bets and stake them according to my own preferences.

Eg
Race a : 5/1 & 8/1 fancies
Race b : 5/1 & 33/1 fancies.

5/1 x 5/1 = win dbl
5/1 x 33/1 = ew dbl
8/1 x 33/1 = ew dbl
5/1 x 8/1 = would need to think about this one a bit more but the place portion would probably more than cover the four bets so that would probably be my insurance policy (ie go each-way)
 
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Thanks for the replies lads.

CP - The idea of working out the accum is clever. That will help me.
DO - I'll be perming your selections in anything with the word handicap so no pressure. . .
 
CPGagie said:
If you're going to bet variably (not what I do when I do them), then it would be something along the lines of estimating the true chance of each runner, then working out the true chance of each line in the perm and staking accordingly. So you're having half on a 1000/1 line as what you are a 500/1 line (at the perceived true odds).
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That’s brilliant and thought provoking but....

The problems here are:
1) Variables can change externally after you have placed your bet.
2) More often than not your bet potential return exceeds the house limit but you can’t reduce your stake because the house sets a minimum stake unit, thus meaning you are actually betting too much.

How do we overcome them:
1) Firstly seek out the house that offers the best price or accumulative prices on your selections, take the prices placing your bet best odds guaranteed, or place it during happy hour.
2) The variables within the variables, don’t bet a Goliath if 30% of your stake is waste because parts of it exceed the max, reduce the number of selections instead and repeat the bet changing one or more selections in smaller perms, better still perm all your selections into smaller perms i.e. turn your 7 selections into 21 Canadians. This actually has the effect of putting more of your stake on the easier obtainable parts of your bets, doubles trebles etc, and is the easiest way of sharing your stake accordingly without having to do the working out of the perceived odds that CPGagie talks of.

Don’t forget the offers too i.e. 100 % bonus for 4 winners etc, because that can also have a roundabout way of reducing your overall stake.

And certainly don’t forget the beautiful most gorgeous Lucky 15’s that when permed in manners already spoken of, can turn a stake of £105 into £170 actual, and £84 of that on the singles alone. Why wouldn’t you want to do multiples if this were so.


I have said enough, an open forum really isn’t the place to talk about this. Just remember to win at this game you have to stay in it, staying in it means you increase your chances of hitting the jackpot from time to time.
 
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I just put racing perms into Google and there are any number of pages discussing these, whether any of them are any good I leave for you to decide, as a non bettor they don't interest me.
 
Maxbet said:
That’s brilliant and thought provoking but....

The problems here are:
1) Variables can change externally after you have placed your bet.
2) More often than not your bet potential return exceeds the house limit but you can’t reduce your stake because the house sets a minimum stake unit, thus meaning you are actually betting too much.

How do we overcome them:
1) Firstly seek out the house that offers the best price or accumulative prices on your selections, take the prices placing your bet best odds guaranteed, or place it during happy hour.
2) The variables within the variables, don’t bet a Goliath if 30% of your stake is waste because parts of it exceed the max, reduce the number of selections instead and repeat the bet changing one or more selections in smaller perms, better still perm all your selections into smaller perms i.e. turn your 7 selections into 21 Canadians. This actually has the effect of putting more of your stake on the easier obtainable parts of your bets, doubles trebles etc, and is the easiest way of sharing your stake accordingly without having to do the working out of the perceived odds that CPGagie talks of.

Don’t forget the offers too i.e. 100 % bonus for 4 winners etc, because that can also have a roundabout way of reducing your overall stake.

And certainly don’t forget the beautiful most gorgeous Lucky 15’s that when permed in manners already spoken of, can turn a stake of £105 into £170 actual, and £84 of that on the singles alone. Why wouldn’t you want to do multiples if this were so.


I have said enough, an open forum really isn’t the place to talk about this. Just remember to win at this game you have to stay in it, staying in it means you increase your chances of hitting the jackpot from time to time.
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Great stuff Max.

So lets simplify it. Say you're entering 5 lines in a Cheltenham competition. How is it best to construct this on say the Tuesday of Cheltenham? I always make the same mistake every year of just doing individual lines and then I'm biased the following day to the entry with the most points and I give up on the entries that did badly.

1st 20 points
2nd 10 points
3rd 5 points

SP 14/1 - 25/1 = 10 points
SP 20/1 + = 20 points
 
With so few lines I would form 3 banks of 5 selections like this:

A,B,C,D,E.....strongly fancied
1,2,3,4,5......Best outsiders
a,b,c,d,e.....good priced outsiders

Then:

1) Rank each bank of 5 with your best fancied or valued selection to the left.
2) For the first 2 banks of 5, pair them like this A/B, B/C,C/D,D/E,E/A. 1/2,2/3,3/4,4/5,5/1. Take the diagonal line as an indication that one is over the other.
3) Form the last bank like this a,b,c,d,e
Now if you have Excel and you entered them vertically your 5 perms would read Horizontally like this:
A,B,1,2,a
B,C,2,3,b
C,D,3,4,c
D,E,4,5,d
E,A,5,1,e

You could randomise it slightly with more selections

Hope I got the gist right and that this helps
 
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Maxbet said:
With so few lines I would form 3 banks of 5 selections like this:

A,B,C,D,E.....strongly fancied
1,2,3,4,5......Best outsiders
a,b,c,d,e.....good priced outsiders

Then:

1) Rank each bank of 5 with your best fancied or valued selection to the left.
2) For the first 2 banks of 5, pair them like this A/B, B/C,C/D,D/E,E/A. 1/2,2/3,3/4,4/5,5/1. Take the diagonal line as an indication that one is over the other.
3) Form the last bank like this a,b,c,d,e
Now if you have Excel and you entered them vertically your 5 perms would read Horizontally like this:
A,B,1,2,a
B,C,2,3,b
C,D,3,4,c
D,E,4,5,d
E,A,5,1,e

You could randomise it slightly with more selections

Hope I got the gist right and that this helps
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Fair play Max. You'll be the go to man for the Cheltenham placepot!
 
Far, far too much like hard-work.

Fu*ck that lark. I'd rather be a mug-punter than a number-sucking-robot, scratching around in the dust for pennies.

I am thick as shite in the neck of a bottle when it comes to numbers though, so not saying my approach is necessarily best. It does have soul though. ;)
 
I'd never hit a Jackpot or go over the limit. I'd never stake enough to, and I'd never find enough races in one day to do it with smaller stakes.

I didn't consider exotic bets regarding the perm question, was only thinking of selections being used for straight win or EW accumulator lines. That does put a different aspect on it if having to consider bonuses. I've never done a yankee, trixie, lucky 15 or anything like that. The odd RFC is as exotic as I go, bar the occasional accy and very rare TC.
 
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Looks to me like the perming approach must require a hell of a tank at the outset, to withstand the inevitable long losing run.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Looks to me like the perming approach must require a hell of a tank at the outset, to withstand the inevitable long losing run.
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Last year I permed your selections on Gold Cup day on 3 races that were 5 places. I had 3 running for me in the last leg and all were unplaced. It would have been a nice return.
 
I'd be interested to know what type of bets everyone places at The Festival other than the obvious singles? I've had a tinker with e/w multiples in the past but never had any joy.

I just want something at small stakes to keep me interested each day with a potential for a nice payout. Are e/w multiples the way to go or are there other more statistically advantageous bets of a similar nature?
 
I've done an each way acca on Moon Racer (bumper), Ma Filleule (Ryanair), Top Notch (Triumph) and Salsify (Foxhunters).
Also done a win treble on Faugheen (CH), Annie Power (Mares) and Sprinter Sacre (QM)
 
Thanks, but I was after a more general answer rather than specific selections. I like the treble though. I know there's some maths geniuses out there so just wanted to know what the best multiple bets are. Just simple accy's, yankees, lucky 15's, the placepot etc.

I always think that if all or most of my selections came in on a given day I'd obviously be pleased but also pissed off that I hadn't put a small multiple bet on.
 
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