Why do you bet and on what basis do you select a horse ?

Diamond Geezer

Diamond Geezer

Gone But Not Forgotten
Joined
May 2, 2003
Messages
13,884
As a non bettor I'm interested in what makes people want to have a bet and how people make a selection or which factors you consider and does that change if you're on course.

Do you go by form, by how the markets are shaping up, by information received, do you follow stats or trends, trainers in form, follow certain tipsters like Pricewise, only back in certain types of races, or only do certain types of bet or maybe just the placepot. If on course do you go by how a horse looks in the ring, or by what you've seen live with your own eyes previously. Do you keep records so you know how much you are winning or losing over a period of time and how much do you kid yourself and others when the reality is something else.:ninja:

I am intrigued by how some on here reckon they make a profit year on year and yet they are still working :ninja: Is that because you can consistently no longer get on for what you want and can't earn enough or because you only bet as a hobby and don't have the confidence to do it more seriously maybe because you have a mortgage to pay and a family to support so are forced to discipline yourself.

I ask because I have followed racing and worked in connecting industries (bookmakers and more recently a supplier to most of the racing stables in the UK) all my life and have never had the slightest interest in betting apart from the occasion Grand National bet .
 
Form first, then market. Trend and stats I almost universally ignore. I rarely, if ever, have a serious bet based on info received - unless I consider the source to be authoritative, and even then, I don't always act on it - and I never, ever follow tipsters, as I can find a million-and-one ways to lose my dough all by myself.

I bet as a hobby, and look to turn a profit. Going pro makes no appeal, as I would need to be extremely (and unreasonably) successful, for it to replace what I earn from the day-job. I also think it would be tedious in the extreme to try and earn a living from the sport. It would suck the joy out of it for me, and I'd rather be an enthusiastic amateur with a passion for Jumps racing, than view every event in terms of whether it puts gravy in the boat.

Punting for a living is too high-stress, and from what I've seen of genuine pro-gamblers, they look a miserable lot; seeming generally undernourished, and attired by Brentford Nylons.

Fu*ck that for a game of soldiers.
 
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Nobody wins all the time and if you did you certainly wouldn't be welcome in any bookies but if you are controlled and put in the and work and spread the load you can make it pay.

I have devised a few bets that feed the interest pay massive dividends when they come up and don't seriously impact on your life when they don't, but more importantly they are devised to keep me in the game. For my type of punting the odds have never been better with all the competition between the bookies.

I am barred by some local bookies but non of the big ones...I don't keep bonus cards or anything that can trace me to the same person. I don't ponder in shops, my wife puts some bets on for me I do others...but sincerely if they could put the lot together and work out my fall back they would certainly stop me.

I use 4_6 online bookies Betfred Laddies and Hills for the shops.

I use the Tote and betfair for my place only bets. A bet I devised based around 120 trebles but with a difference, and that being, I can do them individually but still as part of the 10 selections, and I can have more than one going at anytime...

The reasoning behind it means it doesn't get out of hand, you can stop if the profits get to big that you are wagering more than you want to. But mostly because 6 places at evens or above and I'm in profit.

I can do them individually because I wrote a basic program in excel and by just simply entering the odds of the last winner it tells me what to bet on the next. A guy at work wanted to make me an App for it but I don't need it....all you need is control...the hardest thing to apply.
 
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Maxbet said:
I am barred by some local bookies but non of the big ones...I don't keep bonus cards or anything that can trace me to the same person. I don't ponder in shops, my wife puts some bets on for me I do others...but sincerely if they could put the lot together and work out my fall back they would certainly stop me.

I use 4_6 online bookies Betfred Laddies and Hills for the shops.

I use the Tote and betfair for my place only bets. A bet I devised based around 120 trebles but with a difference, and that being, I can do them individually but still as part of the 10 selections, and I can have more than one going at anytime...

The reasoning behind it means it doesn't get out of hand, you can stop if the profits get to big that you are wagering more than you want to. But mostly because 6 places at evens or above and I'm in profit.

I can do them individually because I wrote a basic program in excel and by just simply entering the odds of the last winner it tells me what to bet on the next. A guy at work wanted to make me an App for it but I don't need it....all you need is control...the hardest thing to apply.
Click to expand...

Now this is interesting :D
 
Form, form, form, including selective time ratings. Then value.

I tend only to bet in televised races and/or those worth £20k+ as below that non-triers become much more of a problem.

I don't keep stats in terms of whether most of my bets are top rated, though. I tend to look for horses on upwards curves or which are, by my reckoning, better than the general picture suggests.

If my fancy is favourite, I have a decision to make regarding value. If I think it will win and it isn't favourite, it's almost certainly a bet, unless it's still very short.

I tend not to back at less than 2/1 (unless I really think it should be evens or shorter) and my ideal price is in the 6/1-10/1 range.
 
Grasshopper said:
Form first, then market. Trend and stats I almost universally ignore. I rarely, if ever, have a serious bet based on info received - unless I consider the source to be authoritative, and even then, I don't always act on it - and I never, ever follow tipsters, as I can find a million-and-one ways to lose my dough all by myself.

I bet as a hobby, and look to turn a profit. Going pro makes no appeal, as I would need to be extremely (and unreasonably) successful, for it to replace what I earn from the day-job. I also think it would be tedious in the extreme to try and earn a living from the sport. It would suck the joy out of it for me, and I'd rather be an enthusiastic amateur with a passion for Jumps racing, than view every event in terms of whether it puts gravy in the boat.

Punting for a living is too high-stress, and from what I've seen of genuine pro-gamblers, they look a miserable lot; seeming generally undernourished, and attired by Brentford Nylons.

Fu*ck that for a game of soldiers.
Click to expand...

Absolutely spot on

Last "pro" I met lived with his mum. And by the state of him he wouldn't be getting it anywhere else

The rest I entirely agree with too. Form still the biggest beast in the jungle. Being able not to have a bet or not requiring one to enjoy the game is certainly a plus I believe


For me though betting is an interest in a sport I attend and enjoy. I'm also pretty sure that by following it at the races and closely within a fairly small circuit (top level southern jumps) is an advantage .
 
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DG, the buzz of a winner is still what makes me want to have a bet. There are a lot of variables to be considered when making a selection. I am rarely on a racecourse.
Form? Yes. I expect what has happened before to happen again unless there are good reasons to suggest otherwise.
Markets? Yes, markets are good indicators, most importantly within the last five minutes of betting. My bet would be on by then, however.
Information? A little, perhaps.
Stats or trends? Some are important (trainer/course stats) but others (say big race trends) are terribly influenced by the bias of a small sample size.
Tipsters? The success rate of Pricewise is intriguing but I don't follow his selections (probably should!).
Types of races? Form variables relate differently to different type of races but currently I am betting on the all weather and over fences and all over the shop (possibly I should specialise).
I like a win bet, occasionally a place on Betfair, and not many (usually just one) a day.
Yes, I keep accounts and couldn't imagine not doing so.
I have not been making a profit year on year so the professional option is out, I guess. I would think there are a lot of other factors that go into becoming a pro-punter beyond one's ability to turn a profit betting on horse racing. I would agree with Grasshopper and say that it doesn't always look a very attractive or even exciting career move. I think I would get very bored.
An interesting question and its interesting that you have 'never had the slightest interest in betting' yet worked in the industry. I feel like it is a mug's game but I'm just trying to somehow make sure before I move on! Reading form can be a
joyful, very stimulating activity and second-guessing the intentions of trainers and owners (and tipsters and gamblers) is part of this.
Self-discipline, for me, has been the hardest thing to learn. Putting method up against the madness of this game (by which I mean assessing the success/failure of my form study) has been very helpful also.
 
Yes, it is form for me in the bigger races. I'll have a few bets sometimes in the week on the aw by looking at Gigilo's analysis (the guy is a genius), but the aw is often the evenings after a few beers - it's only a two quid a race and a bit of a laugh with a mate.

Cheltenham is different - I love it and live for that week. I will look at it seriously and seek the form. The value, for me, is derived from the "overpriced" horses. For some this means never backing the favourite and looking elsewhere but sometimes, again for me, it means having a a big bet on the favourite. I never bet more than a tenner, btw. More often it's an ew accumulator on the day.

But... a tenner on the nose for The Fly this year.
 
The why is easy, it's the only thing in life that I've ever been good at. I've a wretched work history and my luck with the ladies has always been of the bad kind.

I tend to do a lot of analysis of my own bets as much as reading the form book. I mentioned this in another thread but at the 7/2-8/1 price range on conditions races (flat and jumps) I crush. Consistant profits there since the early 90s. But I do terrible at longer priced horses (on the flat especially) in those same conditions races - with one exception - if the horse is trained overseas. I think because that horse would be in my wheelhouse (the term I've coined for that price range I do well with) if it was trained over here. Cirrus Des Aigles in the Champion Stakes is an example of that phenomena. That is why Cheltenham is so important. If I have a bit of luck on the non-runner front I will go into a typical Festival with seven or eight wheelhouse bets.

I also have a good record with long priced horses in flat handicaps (three of my four biggest ever winners were in that sphere) but horses who fit the profile I look for for those races are few and far between and so I can go two or three years without a proper go at one.

All that said it isn't easy of course and last flat season I missed out on a few winners for one reason or another. The funniest was being in Benidorm on a stag do in June. I was completely dehydrated and badly hung over and remembered the Irish Derby was being run that day. I wanted to back Trading Leather but couldn't find a bookies anywhere despite being given directions by one of my friends. Ended up getting lost and missed the race completely.
 
Jumps only for me,I have no interest whatsoever in the flat.Cheltenham is a big thing for me and I will back ante post l15 and singles all year.I play mainly on Saturdays,l15s and multiples on mainly televised stuff.Form book and what takes my eye,I'm not one for trends (this can't win the race because....) but I do follow closely what comes out of races that produce festival winners,just something that works for me.I look to build my bank throughout the year for cheltenham mainly through rugby betting (sore subject at the moment).I use hills online for racing but I am limited with them for rugby.I use a small chain that's local to me for multiples from week to week as they offer 4 times odds one winner.Anyone who can make a living from racing I take my hat off to,without inside knowledge and a big bank to start with,it's fast way to an early grave!There's a documentary floating around on you tube about Harry findlay-bag of nerves.
 
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Well DO, I do make a small profit and contrary to many peoples view and indeed logic I use trends.

But firstly I discount any horse less than 10/1 and then apply certain trends to see what falls out.

I perceive that people may think that past results cannot predict trends but in my view trends are what the older generation of trainers use, even if subconsciously.

I base this logic on some of the trainers I met back in the Eighties, who were pretty good at placing horses in the right races and to my logical eye what they were really doing was following past/established trends. I have simply refined their process.

I have a low winning percentage but the likes of 'Bally Legend' (1 of two, I bet in the race) keep racing exciting for me.

MR2
 
Selective betting. Most certainly pay no attention to 'tipsters'.
Go by what you see and make your own mind up. That way you can take all the plaudits or all the blame.
Don't bet online and rarely Antepost bar the odd exception for Cheltenham. I'm a walk in to the bookie and part with cash from the hand on the day type. The only thing I ask is that when I open the paper, I just hope win/lose, that the pricewise c**t hasn't tipped the one I fancy, otherwise that is the price bolloxed before I can get my arse there.
 
The sercret of selection
by Slim Chance

1. Look at Oddschecker
2. Look at the machine
3. Look at oddschecker
4. Look at the machine
5. Place your bet
6. Back fit your reason for your selection (a flimsy formline or the word improvement or scope should suffice) and post it on the forum.

AND REPEAT
 
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Have oddschecker on constantly,wait for books opening by 3pm and then try and get as many multiples as possible on with all clueless firms on the aw.
 
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