Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
- Joined
- May 2, 2003
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Blog by Geoff Banks, anyone agree or disagree ?
http://steeplechasing.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/3553/
http://steeplechasing.wordpress.com/2013/11/03/3553/
I only skimmed the article but that photo on what tracks will be like without bookies is mischievously misleading.
Picture Longchamp on a Group race Sunday, or any of the big American or Australian tracks. When we get rid of bookies we can have connections covering their annual training costs by winning a claimer. We can have G1s worth a minimum of £1m a pop. We can have a Derby worth £5m or even £10m. We can have a Grand National worth the same and every race at Cheltenham worth a minimum of 500-grand each.
And all because the bookies aren't taking out huge percentages of betting turnover.
You can't get rid of bookmakers for a kick off, we live in a capitalist society where they are allowed to operate and have a vast history. The punters also hugely benefit from competition in the market, good luck to beating a tote monopoly at 130%, it's nigh on mathematically impossible to win unless you're Bill Benter.
suspect in the short term things would be tough for punters but in the longer term the astute ones would find a way of turning a profit because the only way to do so is to find winners that fewer people have found
Yes, I know that and the bookmaking industry is probably the most competitive it's ever been which is brilliant for punters. I've never argued against that.I'm sorry DO but you're showing a very naive knowledge of betting and the betting industry.
You can bet most televised races on a Saturday to less than 110% sometimes, hell I have seen 99% books on the real big days. The reason this is possible is due to the ultra competitive nature of the betting industry, the punter has never had it so good. Take the 2.05 Kempton today, a competitive handicap chase. It is currently at 105% overround with all bookmakers on Oddschecker.
I think you're granting too much savvy to the average betting shop punter. They're not all like TH forumites who know what's what. 90% of them are drongos. The fact they will bet on virtual racing is all the evidence you need. Shouting at the screen as the race reaches its climax and calling the jockey for everything is more if needed. And there's the ones who fire quid after quid into the FOBTs. They're not interested in value. They only want a winner.As soon as you increase that margin by introducing a tote monopoply, you increase gross win and then you will see a sharp fall in turnover as punters will soon get sick of it. So whilst punters may not seem bothered by overrounds on a race by race basis, they will soon notice when their pocket is getting hit harder than before and so will racing when turnover subsequently nosedives.
This is my point. Even within a 130% Tote there will be value, especially away from the favourites (which is where most of my punting lies). It's just a question of finding it. The 130% is probably a worst-case scenario anyway. Look at the tote returns for Ascot on Saturday where probably only a tiny fraction of betting turnover on the race would have taken place on the tote. With a monopoly under a non-profit making nationally owned betting facility, overrounds could very easily get close to the minimum.If you think one man on his own can beat a 130% tote then you need to brush up on mathematics and probability. The odd freak can beat Totes but only when they are ultra liquid with a good proportion of mug money in them and even then, you need a small army of analysts and a damn good algorathim as the big syndicates in Hong Kong do. The HKJC have learnt this isn't good for racing as well as all they do is win off Joe Punter who doesn't have the tools, knowledge, time etc. to even get close to profiting off a 130% tote.
I think you're granting too much savvy to the average betting shop punter. They're not all like TH forumites who know what's what. 90% of them are drongos. The fact they will bet on virtual racing is all the evidence you need. Shouting at the screen as the race reaches its climax and calling the jockey for everything is more if needed. And there's the ones who fire quid after quid into the FOBTs. They're not interested in value. They only want a winner.