William Hill Hurdle _ Kempton

A

Ardross

Senior Jockey
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Aug 8, 2007
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As much as I admire Rock on Ruby I am a big fan of The New One and hope and expect him to win this race - should be a cracker .
 
interesting - i know about value..but thats over a series of bets.

but can someone explain what difference the price of ROR makes if he isn't primed on his first run..if he runs below his best it makes no difference if he's 10/1 or even money...you lose

so if you decide he won't be fit..why take any price?..
 
His first race last year was on heavy ground at Cheltenham. He wasn't 100% but not far off. This is a lot easier.
 
I suspect the seasonal programme for ROR is different this time round. They have to accept he won't beat Hurricane Fly so they have to map out a route that won't involve the major trials. If chasing is to be his game then they'll want a few decent pots along the way as there isn't a great deal of money in novice chases away from the big meetings.

Assuming the Champion is on the agenda for TNO, will they really have him fully fit first time up?

There's as much reason for TNO to be short of 100% as there is for ROR.
 
there is another reason to oppose ROR..Kempton 2 miles...a test that is not stiff enough for him..even the season he won the CH he was beaten for toe after the last here. In fact he has been beaten each time he has run at a flat track ..i'll argue he would have been beaten at Donny by the sadly missed Darlan

TNO also needs a stiffer test

i'd rather back Australia Day than either of them..as at the prices neither of the first two in the betting have ideal conditions...both are poor bets imo...can't see how anyone can back either one with confidence
 
official ratings don't matter when the ones with the big ratings don't run to them...a front runner could easily have stolen this...have you never seen that before?

AD is out now anyway

so no pace on top of everything...which is the best speed horse out of the 2 of them

its like backing two 12f horses racing against each other over 8f..complete guesswork really
 
Sea Lord looks vulnerable on this ground..now Good to soft

sea lord has 20lb in hand on RPR's..i assume you think it wins...but why is it above evens?
 
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One genuine use of the market is nh horses fitness and readiness first time out. There will always be excpetions but I never touch a bad drifter in such circumstances
 
ROR's 2m form is miles better than anything TNO can boast at the trip. Fry won't have left too much to work on, and the betting wholly under-rates Rock On Ruby's chance. TNO might need much further than a sharp2m on quickish ground.

Current odds are all about 'This is NTD's time of year', and ROR has to be the bet at 2/1.
 
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