Windsor Forest Stakes

T

trackside528

At the Start
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Apr 30, 2006
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7/4 about Lush Lashes will probably make or break my week. The Bolger filly looks a massive price in my book.

Agree? Disagree?
 
My take, suspect it will be a Bookies day...

Chantilly Tiffany (Rated 82)
Winner of two weak races in Germany last year but domestic form is some way below Group 2 level and whilst this race is weak, it’s hard to see her having any say in proceedings when her best rating came in a soft ground listed race at Doncaster behind Royal Confidence.

Eva’s Request (Rated 83)
Course and distance winner which counts for a lot and that represents her best rating, along with a win in a Goodwood listed race last month (Both 83s) and she went on to take the Prince Elizabeth stakes at Epsom (82) but she could be called a lucky winner of that race as the second hung all over the track and threw away her chance when looking like winning. She has the consistent profile and ratings and the course form to give her a decent chance in this company nonetheless.

Heaven Sent (Rated 86)
Been on the go a while but really stepped up her game in recent times, finishing not far behind some of the best 3 year old fillies last year and arguably posting her best speed performance to date at Newmarket in the Dahlia Stakes, that was a terrible race and she didn’t do it easily but her time was exemplary. Another C&D winner who has to be respected despite her highly exposed profile.

Lush Lashes (Rated 96)
Her Coronation win last year rates miles above her rivals and it was a huge figure of 96. She went on to post lesser but still very good figures in the Nassau, Yorkshire Oaks, Matron and Opera. That form ranks streets ahead of her rivals and she is clearly a very good filly from a yard who excels with her type. She has 2 tame efforts to overcome in Hong Kong and in the Tattersalls Gold Cup but the ground was almost certainly to blame last time out. She has a 5lb penalty to carry here and if she can return to her form of last Summer, she’ll win this by a huge margin.

Proviso (Rated 81)
Her French Oaks run is the best on the clock since her 2 year old days and she’s seen the behinds of a lot of very good fillies (Goldikova, Zarkava etc.) and whilst a mile on fast ground probably suits her best, she has to pull a lot of improvement to win this and I can’t see where that’s going to come from.

Rosaleen (Rated 81)
Moderate Pontefract Listed race win last time out her best showing on the figures and although she too is a C&D winner, she has an enormous amount on her plate here and she should end up finishing well down the field.

Royal Confidence (Rated 84)
Her fourth in Lingfield Group 3 is her best speed figure and that was over 7 furlongs and against some pretty average fillies, has since finished midfield behind Main Aim at Haydock. Have doubts as to whether she has the class or stamina to trouble a group winning filly.

She’s Our Mark (Rated 89)
Posted some very high figures in soft ground Irish handicaps and weak group races (Curragh on 5th May 2008 being her highest) but those ratings are sporadic in a highly tested campaign and whilst she has won on Good to Firm, she’s a good way below the required level here.

Spacious (Rated 87)
Looked to be a filly of great potential last year with a 2nd in the Guineas behind Natagora and a 4th in the Coronation behind Lush Lashes where she encountered a troubled passage (Best speed figure). Her form since then has flattened out and questions about her attitude have also come into her question, her only win since her two year old days was in a small field conditions race at Doncaster where she scraped home by the tightest of margins and never looked particularly interested. First run this year at Epsom wasn’t very encouraging and she was well beat by Eva’s Request on her reappearance at Epsom on Derby day and whilst she may not have handled the track, I just think she’s never gone on from her promise as a three year old and she’s onto another hiding here.

Conclusion
Lush Lashes is an absolute cut above this lot, her form from last year is simply outstanding with excellent performances in numerous Group Ones, the highlight being over this C&D in the Coronation. However, I wouldn’t be too keen on taking a short price about her as she’s posted 2 tame efforts the last twice, you can make excuses for those showings and she is the most likely winner but it has to be said that Jim Bolger has had quite a few beat at short prices in Ireland since Derby weekend and I’m prepared to take her on. Heaven Sent would be the selection but she needed every yard of the 1m1f at Newmarket on Guineas weekend and she made heavy weather of it. I’m prepared to stick my neck out and predict a bit of an upset for the likely favourite and I reckon Mick Channon’s in form filly could take this event over a course and distance she’s won over before.

Prediction
1st – Eva’s Request
2nd – Lush Lashes
3rd – Heaven Sent
 
I thought Lush Lashes effort at The Curragh on her debut in heavy ground was more than satisfactory...she'll be hard to beat tomorrow.
 
I think 7/4 is a bit too big and I wouldn't dare lay her but I wouldn't be steaming in either. I am a tad concerned Bolger has had a few run below par over the last week.

I'd much rather take the in-form Eva's Request at a 9/1 each-way and take a punt she'll turn the fav over, if not then the place return will more than do.
 
I might have guessed the Jim Bolger fan club would say that Euro. :p

If she repeats her Coronation effort, she'll win by a huge margin.

I'd just rather be on the Channon filly to place at the prices.
 
A quandry. Is the 13/8 or 7/4 too good to be true? As has been said, at the top of her form (or probably a 1lb or 2 below it) she'd murder these.

The comeback run was ok, this time last year the talk was about her dropping back in trip to a mile and if she had the pace for it, which she did - beating the well supported favourite that day, Spacious, comfortably. Looking at her rivals you can't help but think it's hers for the taking tomorrow.

With it being the 2nd race of the day and 5/1 the field in the first I think punters will get stuck in and see her going off nearer to evens than 2/1. So, too good to be true? Lets hope not...!
 
Steve T said:
A quandry. Is the 13/8 or 7/4 too good to be true? As has been said, at the top of her form (or probably a 1lb or 2 below it) she'd murder these.
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Well, it's over the straight mile but that didn't stop Nannina replicating her Coronation win from the year before. Gosden's filly didn't have the 5lb penalty but she still would have won. I make LL a better animal and this isn't as good a field.
 
Have to agree with Euro; a straight mile on fast ground won't hold any fears and she's proved herself in a different league to those opposing her (though the Stoute filly has to be respected).
 
I've laid her. There are doubts for me regarding the trip, her well-being and the form of her stable and she carries a penalty, too. She's very short.
 
My only bet of the meeting Lush Lashes will destroy these and the price is huge. Only FAV of the day to win though. If you think Tartan Bearer is the same price ???

Oh and just to reiterate LL will win today.
 
Gamla Stan said:
I might have guessed the Jim Bolger fan club would say that Euro. :p
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Oi, i'm the president :D

He gave a good interview on ATR this morning, seemed to me like he is trying to be more open and couldn't have been more informative.
 
trackside528 said:
7/4 about Lush Lashes will probably make or break my week. The Bolger filly looks a massive price in my book.

Agree? Disagree?
Click to expand...

I couldn't agree more. I think she should be close to evens, as she's a massive cut above these on all known form. Taking into account her comeback was satisfactory (Bolger thinks the same, and she needed it the same as she did last year), plus the fact that she ran so many remarkably consistent races last year, she seems one to trust with a big bet.
 
Yeah I thought his interview was pretty decent Hamm. I was just waiting for him to ring up Weatherbys midway through and declare Cuis Chaire for the Coronation live on air though.
 
Looking back to last years form, there should be none of these capable of getting near a 95% right Lush Lashes, so basically your taking 13/8 on being anywhere near her former self. Im willing to take that gamble. Strongest fav of the day, in what looks a tricky days racing.
 
Please stop all the positivity around LL, I seem to have backed it left right and centre already, no more encouragement!
 
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