Wot No Systems?

Tonto

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I have visited many a horse racing forum and have even posted the odd comment on the odd one. I haven't come across one that is as completely devoid of systems as this forum.

It would be interesting to hear why not.
 
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order of superiority on the forum

1. Horse Info
2. Known people in the racing media
3. Football
4. Big Races/meetings
5. Race Analysis - opinion
6. Race analysis - anorak stuff
7. owt else
 
order of superiority on the forum

1. Horse Info
2. Known people in the racing media
3. Football
4. Big Races/meetings
5. Race Analysis - opinion
6. Race analysis - anorak stuff
7. owt else

Slim Chance a shocking omission from the number 1 spot.
 
order of superiority on the forum

1. Horse Info
2. Known people in the racing media
3. Football
4. Big Races/meetings
5. Race Analysis - opinion
6. Race analysis - anorak stuff
7. owt else

Best post you've made since..... best post you've ever made :D
 
I have visited many a horse racing forum and have even posted the odd comment on the odd one. I haven't come across one that is as completely devoid of systems as this forum.

It would be interesting to hear why not.

This forum is really the intelligent punters hang out. A friend of mine swears blindly on the first time hoodie system blindly but I rather a more mathematical side to betting and I also will have the lot on when I know something the market doesn't which is essentially what you have to do. It's impossible for a system to remain profitable with the ever evolving Betfair machine in my opinion.
 
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There are so many ways to blow bookmakers apart if you have an account with all of them. Systems are small potatoes.
 
This forum is really the intelligent punters hang out. A friend of mine swears blindly on the first time hoodie system blindly but I rather a more mathematical side to betting and I also will have the lot on when I know something the market doesn't which is essentially what you have to do. It's impossible for a system to remain profitable with the ever evolving Betfair machine in my opinion.

There's a lot of work and expertise gone into RAV, and I mean a lot. RAV isn't a 'normal' system.

RAV looks for horses that have the 'potential' to lose. Those are the ones I post on here each day.

RAV then, shortly before the off, analyses the betting to determine if the market believes the horse will lose.

RAV then, shortly before the off, determines whether the odds represent value.

Only if the betting market analysis indicates that the horse will lose and I can get value is the bet placed.

In theory, and thus far in practice, RAV has evolved as the market has evolved.
 
I have a folder full of 'systems' I devised myself. Every one makes a profit on paper. Races aren't run on paper.

I always win when I am trying out something with fun money,

I started of laying one horse in each race High stakes for low profits and it worked great.....put some real cash in played and was skint within a week chasing losses.

Place betting....... The idea was to back big on good thing to win but just back them for a place. Worked great especially during the bad weather when there were lots of withdrawals. Stuck some money in but no patience waiting for the right horses , took chances lost the lot.

Tried backing laying or place betting depending on the race lost again.

The only one that does work for me is multi dutching........bottled out of the Hunt cup btw.

I start teach day with a bank of *** and have a liability of 15% of my balance per race.

I just click on every horse I think could win and that might be 9 of the 12 runners and might only win 15 quid for an 80 quid liabilty.

The secret is to avoid low class races that look exceptionally open and nothing is really fancied.....................only problem is at least 3 days a week there an abundance of races like that and you get things winning at 160 on the machine and it hits you hard when it happens as you need at least 5 or 6 winners on the trot to claw it back.

The other problem is the massive difference in one's thinking when you are doing i for fun and doing it for real.

It's very much like what you are saying,,,,,,on paper they all win but in reality they seldom do.
 
There's a lot of work and expertise gone into RAV, and I mean a lot. RAV isn't a 'normal' system.

RAV looks for horses that have the 'potential' to lose. Those are the ones I post on here each day.

RAV then, shortly before the off, analyses the betting to determine if the market believes the horse will lose.

RAV then, shortly before the off, determines whether the odds represent value.

Only if the betting market analysis indicates that the horse will lose and I can get value is the bet placed.

In theory, and thus far in practice, RAV has evolved as the market has evolved.

Horses that have the potential to lose? Let me talk to Trev I'll get right back to you :lol:
 
There's a lot of work and expertise gone into RAV, and I mean a lot. RAV isn't a 'normal' system.

RAV looks for horses that have the 'potential' to lose. Those are the ones I post on here each day.

RAV then, shortly before the off, analyses the betting to determine if the market believes the horse will lose.

RAV then, shortly before the off, determines whether the odds represent value.

Only if the betting market analysis indicates that the horse will lose and I can get value is the bet placed.

In theory, and thus far in practice, RAV has evolved as the market has evolved.

The Betfair market is highly efficient near the off so you have zero edge.
 
The Betfair market is highly efficient near the off so you have zero edge.

You are absolutely bang on with that comment SlimChance. The MARKET near the off is highly efficient. However, this applies to a large number of horses running in a large number of races.

When it comes to an individual horse in an individual race, then the market is highly inefficient and that inefficiency can most certainly be exploited.
 
You are absolutely bang on with that comment SlimChance. The MARKET near the off is highly efficient. However, this applies to a large number of horses running in a large number of races.

When it comes to an individual horse in an individual race, then the market is highly inefficient and that inefficiency can most certainly be exploited.

What you say can of course be true but you are contradicting yourself. If you are making 5-6 selections a day over a sustained period then you are laying a large number of a horses in a large number of races and therefore you're long term expected margin is negative.
 
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What you say can of course be true but you are contradicting yourself. If you are making 5-6 selections a day over a sustained period then you are laying a large number of a horses in a large number of races and therefore you're long term expected margin is negative.

No I'm not contradicting myself.

One of the filters looks at value. If the bet has no laying value, the bet is not placed.
 
You're dodging the question. You can't beat Betfair near the off with a large sample size. I don't care who you are or what you do.
 
You're dodging the question. You can't beat Betfair near the off with a large sample size. I don't care who you are or what you do.

No I'm not dodging the question.

Yes you can beat Betfair near the off but only if the method/selection system is non-random. If it's random, long term, you can't beat Betfair and will lose because of commission.

If it's a non-random selection system/method, then, long term, you can win.

Also, if you place value bets, then again, you can win, provided that the method for determining value is accurate.
 
If you were doing this you wouldn't be wasting your time on a forum, so clearly you're not.
 
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