You're writing style is very similar to past posters. This thread will go on for about 12 pages and then you'll get bored an move on to your next character.
Why I think this:
1. Your post structure. Very few posters use paragraphs.
2. Words. You insert unnecessary words in sentences to make yourself sound more intellectual.
3. When you post these threads you're always starting a new project with a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow without giving any details of how you make the selections.
4. Repetition - "I say, out of fear. Strictly speaking, it's not out of fear that I'm trying to develop a new system." This is a particularly good example of how you write and I've seen this type of sentence from you a million times.
5. How quickly you bang out long replies. You're absolutely gagging to build your character as quickly as possible.
I'm really not to bothered if this post is wrong because I've at least provided my workings for everyobe to agree of disagree but it's quite obvious to me you're a reincarnation.
Whoever you think I am, I can assure you I'm not and, actually, it should be easy to verify this by comparing IP addresses. In fact, it's possible to determine which part of the country I live in and compare it with that relating to whoever you think I am. It's very likely that we live in different parts of the country. One of your administrators should be able to confirm this by looking at the log files for this forum.
People of my age, provided that they had a reasonable education, were taught to write in paragraphs. It seems likely therefore that the person that you think I am and I are probably of similar ages.
I didn't start my post with the promise of a pot of gold. I merely stated that I wished to collaborate with people with ideas different to mine to see if we could combine our knowledge and come up with a new and profitable system. If you think this is a promise of a pot of gold, so be it.
My repetition is purely a coincidence.
I bang out replies fairly quickly because I happen to think that I know what I'm talking about when it comes to nags. I've spent enough time over the years researching them. I've done my time as they say.
You know what frightens me about you? You make unbelievable assumptions based on the flimsiest of evidence and, all too often, and not unsurprisingly, get things wrong.
You accused me of betting blind even though it was obvious from an earlier post that I was not.
You accused me of having a logically flawed system and yet I have given you few details of the system. How you arrive at this conclusion is beyond me.
I suspect that soon after I started to post, you decided that I was someone else. You then only looked for information which confirmed this and ignored information which indicated otherwise. There's a term for this. It's called confirmation bias.
When I initially posted on here, I stated that I would post some information by way of an act of good faith. Well, I'm as good as my word and here it is:
To you SlimChance: I'd stay away from the nags if I were you. Making incorrect assumptions and suffering from confirmation bias on your scale is a lethal combination. I'm not saying this to be inflammatory, I'm just trying to be helpful.
Someone on here stated that if I'd layed a horse at 6/1? and it fell to 5/4? before the off, I'd be crossing my fingers. Actually, no I wouldn't. I ALWAYS lay close to the off so this wouldn't happen. Secondly, horses whose odds crash before the off lose more often than their odds suggest. Please read this if you already haven't:
https://betting.betfair.com/horse-r...and-drifters-a-myth-worth-busting-120708.html
Some people dismiss this article because they think that it was written by Jack on behalf of Betfair and is therefore wrong. Others think that because it was written in 2008, it is no longer valid. All I can say is: WRONG AND WRONG. If a horse is steaming, lay it and if it's drifting, back it. You won't go far wrong. Besides, you can do some basic research and find out for yourself if you are concerned that the information is inaccurate.
I know several owners personally and have access to several current trainers and one ex-trainer via third parties. As such, I receive a certain amount of unsolicited tips. I always make a note of them and the odds at the time of tip receipt and the odds at the off. I can honestly say that laying the tips makes a profit and backing them makes a loss. I suggest that you do similar if you receive tips that are reported to have come from a yard. Why will you lose if you bet such horses? VALUE. By the time you get the tip, the value has generally gone and, if you aren't getting value, you are going to lose long term.
That brings me nicely to my last piece of advice. Dave Nevison has his critics but there's one thing that I believe he has right and that's VALUE. He is of the opinion that if you can't get value, even though you think the horse will win, don't back it. If you don't get value, long term, you will lose. So, whatever else you do, make sure that you have a method which provides you with a reasonable estimate of the horse's actual chances of winning so that you are able to determine whether there is value in a bet or not.
Anyways, SlimChance, I wish that I could say that it's been good to talk but it hasn't. It's been like trench warfare chatting with you. I don't have the time, energy or inclination to fight battles with you.
I can assure you that I'm not who you think I am.
I am an honest and genuine guy.
I came to this forum in good faith and was willing to work with people in order to develop something new.
I honestly wish that I hadn't bothered.
Sad.
I won't be back.
