Yankees, lucky 15,31,63,Heinz, Goliath's etc

granger

granger

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Reassessing betting strategies and for this topic I have largely ignored all the titled bets over the course of my gambling life.

Where is slim when you need him

What are all your strategies on these types of bets - do you do them AP or day of racing?

What level of stakes and do you see a long term return of any sort

I like the idea of landing a big festival multi hotpot as an aside for anyone who thinks they have a multi selection of note :)
 
Nice thread Granger.

For years after I started gambling I always used to do Yankees and Canadians pretty much as my sole betting strategies, aside from big festivals but in those days I never used to keep record of my bets.

About 12 years ago I started recording everything and probably more through coincidence than judgement also started eradicating the multiples from my betting plans, instead focusing on singles and beating SP.

I've made a fair profit every year since 2014 (inclusive) and I sometimes wonder whether that's the removal of multiples or other factors at play - although probably a combination in all likelihood.

But I too now find myself drawn to the idea of playing a few ante post e/w multis, largely drawn in by the enthusiasm shown by many on here that I've decent respect for.

To that end I've been scouring the Cheltenham ante post lists in the hope of coming up with one or two myself but other than thinking Suapasundae at 6/1 NRNB for the Stayers should be the cornerstone of any e/w multi I'm struggling to come up with anything more, despite having inclination towards horses like Rocky's Treasure for the NH Chase (entered up for Warwick this weekend), Champagne Platinum in the Supreme and even Espoir D'allen for the Champion (Pricewised today :()
 
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My experience is similar to wilsonl's.

I tended to go with 'three-crosses' and yankees or the occasional union jack in my early days but soon realised if I'd stuck to singles I'd be in profit so for many many years religiously avoided multiples.

Profits grew modestly over the years till it got to the point I realised my small-stake bets were only just covering outgoings (form books, Handicap Book, RP etc, which were continually increasing) annually. I upscaled significantly and that's when I noticed how much I was really making - lots!

I upscaled again a few years back but the last couple of years have been loss-making so I've scaled back quite a bit recently (only for fortunes to turn - typically - but I'm too cautious to think the corner has been turned properly).

We've had debates on here and I've been drawn to multiples in the last few years.

The logic, as I see it, is the compounded value of them.

For example, if on the same day I reckon two 10/1 shots should really be no more than 5/1 each then that's clearly value. If they should both be 5/1 then the double should be 35/1. But if they're both 10/1 then the odds you're getting are 120/1. Obviously it's still 1/35 that you're going to lose but there's still value in the bet at the longer odds.

While singles tend to (or used to!) keep my head above water, it was the doubles that tended to boost the balance significantly.

If I bet five singles at an average of 5/1 on a Saturday at an outlay of five points, one winner will probably cover me while two will ensure a profit. But the double will boost that profit. I wouldn't bet full perms on five. I might bet win doubles and an ew acc. If the prices are big enough (10s or more) I'll maybe back the doubles ew.

I do plan to explore the NRNB+BOG concessions ante-post for Cheltenham this year for possible value snaffles.
 
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Using a £1 stake here to illustrate my point

I can see that a multiple can be the bet if you're hoping for that big one, aren't we all? It's a "slim chance" that you'll pick up anything but yet for the cost of a lottery ticket you could pick up - say- around 15,000/1 for an E/w accy if all four won @ 10's (or 200,000/1 @ 20's :blink:)

Given the fabulous return my question would be - why bother with an e/w yankee increasing your stake 10 fold for only a 20% increase in the return? If you fancy 4 (or whatever number) strongly then back them individually but with the accy as insurance "just in case".
 
I do lucky 63s on a Saturday card when I'm off for interest, only 50p though (£31) more in hope that one day I'll go near enough through a card. Also depends on the prices of what I'm backing, any long shots I'll reduce the stake to sometimes 10p e/w.

Through Cheltenham last year, despite making profit, I lost a lot on multiples with one leg being the constant nack of letting me down. Might Bite emptying up the hill hurts me still now. As does Apple's Jades no show. Probably why my AP portfolio is near enough empty this year.

I've stuck to singles really this season and find myself slightly better off. Also spending more time studying form etc. Though Kalondra will probably always be the most I've lost on a single bet. I'll probably stick to singles for the next few years. I'd love to spend more time looking into races, unfortunately with my job and my hours, I have to pick and choose races.
 
The odds of you getting one yankee up that will bring in a pot of gold are way too high for me.

I’ve had a couple up as far as I remember but for peanuts and at short odds.

Did get the William Hill Jackpot 6 with bonuses up in Dawn Run’s year but nothing like that since.

Had 3 out of 4 ante post at Chelters twice both times beat by the second leg…..it’s the toughest way ever to try and make money…..if it’s fun and anxiety wrapped into one you want….you got it

Apart from those who dig out the Sprinter Sacres’or Altiors’ and grab AP prices with huge best before anyone else cottons on I reckon the most successful everyday punters are those who use logical insurance over greed rather than throw sh*te at a wall and hope some sticks.

Three methods

Bet one 3 cross doubles and a treble per week.
Unless you are the worst punter on the planet you must have a great chance to win.

100 pounds stake per week say 50 weeks betting = 5000 pounds per year

Your average price must be 7/2 and one winning treble should just about pay for the entire year

Get 3 up your 10k plus up for the year
if 1 in 6 return a winning double you can add 3k to other winnings.

The much safer alternative is:
Spread 90 pounds at prices no less than 2/1 5/2 3/1 or an averge of 5/2
Add aq 10 pounds treble.
1 winner you will win about 3 quid 2 winners you more than double your money
All 3 win pay a minimum of 750 pounds.

The only time I go to a 4 horse bet which is as crazy as I am prepared to get,,,,,,,,,,,most of the time is like the best I put up in what are you betting today 2 days ago.

For what it’s worth I did another successful one yesterday that paid only evens

You need consistency and must stick to your guns to make it pay.

Battleoverdoyen 2.88
Tornado Flyer 2.88
X
Arvico Bleu 3.25
Punches Cross 3.25
X
Miss Tata 2.75
Meri Devie 5
X
Mister Dino 2.38
Knocknanuss 3

The idea is to look for races like the first bet 2.88 2.88 12/1 bar
Some days there are 2 or 3 some days more

100 pounds on the first leg returns 144.00

144.00 at 3.25 and 3.25 returns 234.00

You can then dutch the nest 2 with the full 234 or stick the profit on or half the profit on.

With careful picking the odds are in your favour IMO

Good luck throwing sh*ite at the wall hope some sticks for you
 
On 12/9/81 I had the first 6 up in an ew ITV7. My last horse was called Shergar (some may remember the name!) to win the St Leger. It was unplaced. I`m still traumatised!!
 
Generally stick to singles myself and have made a reasonable profit in 11 of the last 12 years. Occasionally get tempted by multiples (mostly each way doubles and trixies) but often find myself being let down by one. I find it quite hard to stomach nil reward when selecting a winner or even two


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Desperate Dan said:
On 12/9/81 I had the first 6 up in an ew ITV7. My last horse was called Shergar (some may remember the name!) to win the St Leger. It was unplaced. I`m still traumatised!!
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Ouch!

An old auntie of mine used to get decent money back regularly on the ITV7. She watched all the racing on TV but never read form as such. She just remembered seeing some horse run well some day or some jockey she liked or the horse a wee (f) in the Daily Express card. Back then it seemed like she was getting ten or fifteen quid back every other week (I used to put her lines on for her and collect her winnings). She'd always blow it at the bingo, mind :lol:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, but almost as galling when you find two decent winners on the one day and don't have them in a double!
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No that one’s easier to stomach as there’s some reward (obviously could have bee so much more)


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wilsonl said:
Nice thread Granger.

For years after I started gambling I always used to do Yankees and Canadians pretty much as my sole betting strategies, aside from big festivals but in those days I never used to keep record of my bets.

About 12 years ago I started recording everything and probably more through coincidence than judgement also started eradicating the multiples from my betting plans, instead focusing on singles and beating SP.

I've made a fair profit every year since 2014 (inclusive) and I sometimes wonder whether that's the removal of multiples or other factors at play - although probably a combination in all likelihood.

But I too now find myself drawn to the idea of playing a few ante post e/w multis, largely drawn in by the enthusiasm shown by many on here that I've decent respect for.

To that end I've been scouring the Cheltenham ante post lists in the hope of coming up with one or two myself but other than thinking Suapasundae at 6/1 NRNB for the Stayers should be the cornerstone of any e/w multi I'm struggling to come up with anything more, despite having inclination towards horses like Rocky's Treasure for the NH Chase (entered up for Warwick this weekend), Champagne Platinum in the Supreme and even Espoir D'allen for the Champion (Pricewised today :()
Click to expand...

I am struggling for angles for The Festival ATM, but then I haven't done my research yet, and have been waiting for the horses to stand out to me or catch my eye. Having said that, I am happy with my anti post selections in the competition...e.g. Apple's Jade at 7/2, Lalor at 10/1 and Shantou Flyer at about 8/1 who should shorten after tomorrow. But I haven't seen anything at bigger than 10/1 so far this season that is striking me as a stonking anti post bet, etc.
 
2017diary said:
You might notice that I gave an example earlier using four 20/1 winners. That's for the day when you give us those four winners :thumbsup:
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Ha ha, I did get two 33s together in a bet but they were on different days of Cheltenham.2009.
I will keep trying though.
 
Over the course of the last season or two, I’ve been doing more each-way multiples for the Festival, whereas previously I would usually do Win Only.

I tend bet early (will usually have a few down before the season really kicks-off), and continue to build multiples throughout the season. I essentially ignore early NRNB concessions, and am happy* to take a bigger-price, and accept the risk of not getting a run.

It’s anathema to me, not to bet ante-post for the Festival......something which applies equally to most early-closing races (BVGC, Hennessy, KG, Betfair Hurdle etc).

* Happy until they are found in a ditch at the bottom of the gallop with a leg missing, at any rate.
 
Grasshopper said:
It’s anathema to me, not to bet ante-post for the Festival......something which applies equally to most early-closing races (BVGC, Hennessy, KG, Betfair Hurdle etc).
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That's pretty much how I was 'brought up'. Although I was in my mid-teens when my old man chucked it completely (I later was told he came to a 'pact' with God at a time when my mother was unwell and clearly a lot less well than the family were told at the time) ante-post bets in the National, Gold Cup, Hennessy, Scottish National etc were much more topics of discussion between him and my older brothers than football.

(I suppose the 'pact' can be said to have worked. My mother got another 25 years after that.)
 
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Found it hard to know whether to laugh or cry at that Outsider.

In all seriousness, I'm very sorry to hear it and I hope your health improves very soon.
 
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