Multiples are great for Cheltenham but madness without nrnb.
I disagree Archie. Yes you have to factor in the risk of injury, but the difference in prices from September to January is huge, particularly with the 'roll-up' factor. Bet365 cash out option is also a useful option that didn't exist previously. This season it has been particularly useful for Samcro antepost bets.
To demonstrate I've just had some multiples go down recently following the announcement of Next Destination's injury. Whilst it's a pain, it doesn't bother me because I expect some to go down, and I have ample compensation because of the prices I have on others in other multiples. Most people would die for 7/4 multiples including Altior for example. When compared to his current price of 2/5, he alone makes my bets potentially four and half times more profitable than they would be, and when you factor in the roll up of better prices about other hoses included in multiples you can end up with bets that are 20,30,40x etc, better. You could still argue that Altior has to get there of course, but assuming he does I'm sure everyone will have him in as a banker. I take a view that if I end up with anywhere above 20% of my investment in multiples running at the Festival I'm happy. The reality is you only need one multiple running and for it to be a winner to be happy, but 20% is the backstop that suits my mentality. The reality is however that I'd have to be pretty unfortunate to lose more than 80% of my antepost bets to non-runners.
On the wider point, multiples have been an integral part of my betting strategy for a few years now. I always find them to be a bet that suits a particular kind of thinking though. I have friends who never back multiples and never will. As Viking points out it can be galling to have two winners and not pick up because the third one loses in a treble. The answer to that is simple though. If you feel strongly enough to think they're solid enough for a multiple, surely you can have a good bet on the singles too? The backstop is easy if that's what you need. I'm fine with these bets having a low strike rate though, because when they land there is significant compensation, and I've most likely got them in singles somewhere along the way anyway.
I've been profitable with my multiples for a number of seasons now. Not least because of the Festival which for me is fertile ground. Inflated prices in what are largely reliable antepost markets is perfect when you can put in anchor horses such as Altior, Buveur D'air, Tiger Roll, etc, at massively inflated prices compared to sp's or nrnb prices.
For a long time at the Festival I used to back and lay from the moment the first markets were formed, all the way to the day of the race. Coming in and out of individual horses before and after significant trials. It was a profitable strategy, but the bookies made the work harder and harder, and the requirement for the sums invested were getting bigger, and most significantly account restrictions and closures were taking their toll. It's also very time consuming. Whilst I can't say I won't go back to it in the future when I have more time, I struggle to stay all over it like I used to, so the strategy using multiples makes my life much easier
Like Grassy, these days my antepost investment in Cheltenham is mostly multiples. I usually have a handful of singles with the intention of letting them run, but still may let them go (hopefully for a profit), if I change my mind or if I think differently on the day of the race.
My advice to those who are considering using multiples as part of their strategy is don't over invest until you learn what you're good at. Think of it this way. Three 4/1 winners in a treble pays 124/1. At 4/1 at the Festival you're probably talking about three horses at the head of the market in what have become very reliable markets in the non-handicaps over the last few year. Ten similar bets perming 5-7 horses from different races has cost you £10 for a potential £125 return from each of the ten bets. If you then spend a further pound and put them all in one acca and get very lucky your £1 will return you £15k at average odds of 4/1, plus a further £1250 from the trebles, making a total potential return of £16250 from an £11 bet.
Now consider how tough it is to back three winners at any race meeting. Not easy, but it can be much easier to find 3 winners across 4 days of a Festival. But nevertheless it's worth considering the backstop of each way betting. Most people wouldn't consider backing a 4/1 horse each way as a single bet, but as a multiple that's entirely different. A £10 ew bet on a treble at average odds of 4/1 pays £80 and finding three horses to place in the right races at the Festival is not so hard. In my opinion this is the smartest bet of all. This is where I use Archie's principle of not backing ew multiples before no runner no bet though. I couldn't afford too many of these going down before the Festival or it would be a losing bet, so it's not worth the risk. However with nrnb now in play, pretty much all of my multiples between now and the first Tuesday in March will be ew multiples.
Anyway guys. Expect low strike rates and be patient. If you're any good at finding winners, you're smart when you use it, and don't get too greedy chasing the bookies maximums, you should boost your profits.
. My next one will most likely be Tiger Roll for the X-Country, though his price is starting to be squeezed.
) I didn't manage to quite get the correct perms and missed out by a huge pay day. I recall posting a photo of the betting receipts on one the threads back then.