York Day 2

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The Gimcrack looks a cracking renewal to me. I hope the Hannon horse (Monsieur Chevalier) goes off crazy short as I am really sweet on Showcasing. Really taken with him in both his starts and I like the Arcano formline. In fact I could see Showcasing and Orpen Grey fighting it out with MC only in third spot...

Any strong fancies in this or any of the other races tomorrow?
 
Having a quiet time of things at present as I've got shafted at every festival this Summer and seem to make my money on the lesser Saturdays and odd French races.

That said, I think Charlotte Point is a big price in the last and I'll be backing Orpen Grey to beat Monsieur Chev.

I also can't decide whether Changingoftheguard is the biggest certainty in Ebor history & a group horse in a handicap or the crappest price in Ebor history. At 9/2, he was probably the former, at 3/1, probably nearer the latter. Record Breaker may go well at 33s.
 
Willoughby makes a great point in the RP video thing tonight - Changingoftheguard is the only three year old in the Ebor this year given the conditions now makes it tricky for the three year olds to get in - preference done by weight. Take alot away from the Ebor imo.
 
MC - is surely made for the Flying Childers . That was a cracking race in the old days when it was a Group One .
 
The Gimcrack looks a cracking renewal to me. I hope the Hannon horse (Monsieur Chevalier) goes off crazy short as I am really sweet on Showcasing. Really taken with him in both his starts and I like the Arcano formline.

This mirrors my own thoughts on the race, Showcasing should enjoy the quick conditions too.
 
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Gimcrack looks a very good but difficult race to solve as the principals look quite closely matched.

I have a suspicion that this track and ground is going to suit Royal and Regal. Some of his siblings have produced their best on quick ground and he ran Geordieland close at this track in the yorkshire cup under these conditions which is very strong form in the context of this race. He is a fair price and will probably be my main bet of the day.

I like Desert Sea in the Ebor E/W. I'm not convinced by changingoftheguard, his maiden win is poor and I think he beat a couple of decent horses who didn't quite see out the trip. His popularity gives the market and appealing shape for an e/w punt and Desert Sea, who is another getting his ground, looks fairly weighted and should run a good race.
 
I'm all over Red Merlin in the Ebor. The form of the Newton Cup has worked out and i've been wating for this one ever since that race. The trip worries me so it's an each way bet.
 
I also can't decide whether Changingoftheguard is the biggest certainty in Ebor history & a group horse in a handicap or the crappest price in Ebor history. At 9/2, he was probably the former, at 3/1, probably nearer the latter. Record Breaker may go well at 33s.

I just can't believe that race at Down Royal was run over 13F's. Changingoftheguard might have beaten standard time by 6.62 secs, but he'd need to come 20L's clear for that to be legitimate. 14 ran and even the last placed horse (Vivaldi) has beaten standard by 1.22 secs on even the most conservative of time adjustments you could make.

The following race was nearly as bad. Belenak rated 51 for his effort and a horse who has nothing better to show than a Pontefract maiden in 20 starts dating back to June 2006 has run just three hundreths outside of standard time over the same C&D.

Otherwise I don't have that much to commend the horse on the clock, mid to high 80's early 90's.

Record Breaker's chance would lie in his performances since the fitting of the blinkers, and a ground preference for what looks like 'firm'. Ignore his Newcastle run, the ground would have done for him. He broke the course record at hamilton before finishing runner up at Royal Ascot on what I've clocked as +4.07 and +3.73, and provided they don't water, he should face the same ground again.

Since blinkers he's done the following (ignoring the pitmans Derby on soft ground);

second btn 4.5L's
fourth btn 2L's
won broke course record hamilton
second btn 1.25L's (Royal Ascot)
fifth btn 2.75L's

The Ebor's one of these strange long distance races with a draw bias though isn't it? Something like 8 of the last 10 winners coming from stall 14 or higher?.

At this stage I'm tending to look at

Red Merlin (who holds Record Breaker through Munsef) but has been winning on ground between +2.77 and +3.14 this term, and likely to be facing at least this

My top -rated would be Desert Sea, and although I'm loathed to rely too heavily on Goodwood figures I can be persuaded that Manyriverstocross is in with a chance.

At this stage these would be my 3 (but then I should say this race is personal graveyard for me)
 
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I think everyone is looking too hard to get MC beaten.

I tend to agree although the ground is firmer than ideal IMHO. 9/4 and getting bigger will do me.

I like Coin Of The Realm and Presbyterian Nun in the first.
 
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Seb Sanders has a fantastic chance to land his first Ebor winner today



The big race of the day the Totesport Ebor handicap and the major market move has been for Aiden O’Brien’s Changingoftheguard who still holds a Leger entry and is widely expected to win today. The race has history of throwing up a big priced winner or two and where would the fun be in picking a 3-1 favourite in a 19 runner field. The 6 year old gelding by Desert Sun has been making steady improvement throughout the course of the season and looks to have a fantastic chance at 16-1

He made his seasonal reappearance at Kempton over 2 miles showing a decent turn of foot after Phillip Robinson set very slow fractions in attempt to steal the race. The next step would be the Chester Cup over the 2 mile 2 furlong trip, racing off a new career high mark Martin Dwyer hit the front early on making the most of a low draw but the horse failed to see out the trip after a muddling gallop but still managed to battle on well for 4th place.

The next step for Desert Sea would be the Esher at Sandown and his most impressive win to date, despite the 6 runners Amerigo generously set a decent gallop where Ryan Moore sat pretty towards the rear until making a powerful bid on the outside 3 furlongs from home where he would kick on to fight out a gruelling duel with Victoria Montoya inside the final furlong in which the duo both recorded a fantastic time on the clock leaving Wells Lyrical and Judgethemoment nothing more to give solidifying the value of this time.

The David Arbuthnot trained gelding is versatile as he’s shown to quicken of a slow or fast pace but there will be a decent pace in the Ebor today more than likely set by Warringah, the race has favoured hold up horses in the past and if Seb Sanders can take a leaf out of Ryan Moore’s book at Sandown then we could see Desert Sea, Seb Sanders and David Arbuthnot making the headlines in tomorrow’s papers.

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After Harbingers disapointing performance, will Class is Class give Stoute something to smile about


With Harbingers disappointment yesterday Sir Michael Stoute looks likely to take down the first stayer’s race of the day when Class is Class the short priced favourite hopes to build on a fantastic run at Newmarket last month behind Firebet.

This son of Monteju is out of Hector’s Girl who came 3rd in the Nell Gwyn for Sir Michael Stoute in 2003, he is a half brother to Ascot Lime who has put some solid times on the clock over 10 furlongs and still looks a horse with plenty to give if he is still in training (note – Ascot Lime hasn’t run in 2009).

Class is Class only had the two runs as a 2 year old but it was plain to see he was going to be a longer term project as a 3 year old. The horse made his debut in a maiden at Yarmouth running over the mile; he was given a handy ride by Louis-Phillipe Beuzelin tracking the leaders into the final 2 furlongs were he ran on well towards the finish to foil the fancied Espiritu for Jeremy Noseda in what was a pleasing performance doing the best of his work towards the finish and given the jockey booking you would wonder if the horse needed the run which if he did that would of said a lot for the performance.

It was a while until Class is Class ran again and he took his chance in a valuable handicap at the July meeting where he was given a mark of 89 after his cosy maiden success which had worked out well, Ryan Moore took the ride and there was plenty of market support but he found one too good on the day in the rapidly improving Firebet but there was something to like about the way he ran. There was a different approach in tactics were he would be held up off a strong pace, after coming of the bridle around 3 furlongs out Ryan Moore took him to the outside as he made steady headway 1 furlong from home as he ran on strongly up the hill to grabbed 3rd place.

Class is Class is still learning his trade who has got some interesting form lines from his two runs this year but he put up an effort last time out that screams 12 furlongs but what makes him a solid proposition today is he has the profile taking a near identical route as Galactic Star in 2007, he comes in to the race as least exposed but bringing a time on the clock that suggests he’ll be a few lengths better than his opposition today.

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Will Orpen be caught today?

Orpen Grey lines up in the Gimcrack today a race which has thrown up a fair few decent horses in its time and Orpen Grey looks set to add his name to the list. Tom Dascombe is not known for his exploits in Group races but he is a trainer that has caught many people’s attention who is rising through the ranks in the training game and has a horse in Orpen Grey who can really help in raising the profile.

Orpen Grey is a son of Orpen who has a habit of producing speedy 2 year olds, he is out of Sky Red who was a handy sprinter at a lower level running 16 times with 3 wins and 3 places but she is a full sister to Shoalhaven and Night Haven who are two black type winning sprinters.

The debut came at Goodwood under Ross Atkinson where the horse was hampered a the start after being slow away and was always trailing the field but did eventually make some pleasing headway towards the finish. The debut was one to forget and a drop down to 5 furlongs at Warwick next time out saw the grey colt put to bed an experienced field with ease, this time under stable jockey Richard Kingscote he was much smarter away than last time out tracking the long time leader in Admin who he eventually bypassed with ease over 1 furlongs from home with nothing coming from the back to record a cosy success.

The race that made everyone stand up and take notice would be his 8 length demolition at Haydock in a conditions event, going off the 2-1 favourite Orpen Grey bounced from the stalls very smartly and bagged the rail position where he would not see another horse again, coming down to the 3 pole Richard Kingscote was sitting pretty whilst the others were niggling away and he soon asked the little grey dynamo to go win his race in which he duly obliged sprinting clear in the final furlong to record a rip roaring success as the others were left trailing 8 or more lengths behind.

From a family with plenty of speed it was no surprise to see Orpen Grey progress this far with a tremendous effort in the July Stakes taking the field along at a good pace as nothing bar Arcano was able to bypass him and he was beaten by a better horse on the day. At this stage of his career he has shown more than the others especially on the clock with that latest effort and although in time some may progress further it is about now and right now Orpen Grey will be one of the most difficult 2 year old sprinters to break down with his heart, guts and durability out in front.
 
Interesting debate going on Betfair, Someone posted up Class is Class as a lay and knows the bloke who sold the info to isiris as a lay, now theres a fight going on because it was highly confidental and his legs are getting broke

A day in the life of Betfair lol
 
Ouch!!! Second horse is very unlucky but some effort from Carroll - likely to get a ban for use of the whip though.
 
Best horse in the race was Changingoftheguard but you have to give credit to the jockey on Sesenta that is some feet.
 
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