Zanahiyr

Was clipped a week or so ago, but no sure if thats cause of NRNB.

Exchange will tell you, but i would not at all be suprised.
 
I think Elliot will want to win a chelt race for the Morans and will go for the easiest target. RTE panel, including Geraghty, who rides both him and Quilixios, very straightforward in saying the yard know the pecking order.
 
Elliott, when interviewed, said after Quilixios won that Zanahiyr was going straight to the Triumph and Quilixios probably would but nearly offered an alternative before catching himself
 
wilsonl said:
Elliott, when interviewed, said after Quilixios won that Zanahiyr was going straight to the Triumph and Quilixios probably would but nearly offered an alternative before catching himself
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Interesting , I am convinced Quilixios was a marker for him today for future plans. Like DO it could cost me if he is switched.
 
I disagree it's 0%.

They have a line on Appreciate It from Sunday's course and distance runs now, and if Zanahiyr is better than Quilixios, then there's a reasonable case to be made that Zanahiyr can finish ahead of Appreciate It with the 7lb allowance.

Following the logic through, Elliott beieves he has the best two juveniles in training and they'd finish 1-2 in the Triumph. There's no doubt the alternative of the Supreme will be discussed. They just have to. When discussing it, they'll also discuss Ballyadam chasing home Appreciate It's backside again. Ballyadam could also swtich to the Ballymore don't forget.

With what is assumed targets currently Elliott has a 1-2 in the Triumph, and a place at best in the Supreme. However by switching Zanahiyr to the Supreme, and Ballyadam to the Ballymore, he has 3 potential winners and not 1.

Whilst I agree it probably won't happen, I would certainly not rate it as 0%.

As a precaution I did the Quilixios Triumph and Zanahiyr Supreme 47/1ew double before the weekend, and added a Ballyadam Ballymore 624/1ew treble after the weekend. All no runner no bet, so nothing to lose and bets to nothing just in case.
 
Maruco said:
I disagree it's 0%.

They have a line on Appreciate It from Sunday's course and distance runs now, and if Zanahiyr is better than Quilixios, then there's a reasonable case to be made that Zanahiyr can finish ahead of Appreciate It with the 7lb allowance.
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Please God, NO!!!!!
 
I can see the logic but I presume you mean “if Zanahiyr is better than Ballyadam” rather than Quixilios, as there are no form lines to go on to even interpret that as meaning a 7lb allowance would allow Zanahiyr to master Appreciate It.

And the bet isn’t quite a nothing to lose just because it’s NRNB as, if Quixilios goes Triumph and is beaten by Zanahiyr then it’s a loser despite the Zanahiyr part being a NR.

Beaten by your own non runner would be hard to take ;)
 
I did actually mean both Lee. ;)

They already have a line at home between Ballyadam and Zanahiyr, but they now have the comparative times and performances between Quilixios and Appreciate It from Sunday, and can make assumptions based on Appreciate It having to give Zanahiyr 7lbs based on both of those things. You'd think they can get a pretty reliable guide on where they are against Appreciate It and whether Zanahiyr could justify a Supreme entry.

You're right about the nrnb part of course, but that wouldn't matter if I didn't believe Quilixios beats Zanahiyr on the stiff new course on the Friday. I already think Zanahiyr would be better suited by the old course on Tuesday whether he switches targets or not. Gordon has also said what 'type' each is, and based on his assessment of one being all speed and the other more a staying type he may draw the same conclusion as me. :blink:
 
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Maruco said:
I disagree it's 0%.

They have a line on Appreciate It from Sunday's course and distance runs now, and if Zanahiyr is better than Quilixios, then there's a reasonable case to be made that Zanahiyr can finish ahead of Appreciate It with the 7lb allowance.

Following the logic through, Elliott beieves he has the best two juveniles in training and they'd finish 1-2 in the Triumph. There's no doubt the alternative of the Supreme will be discussed. They just have to. When discussing it, they'll also discuss Ballyadam chasing home Appreciate It's backside again. Ballyadam could also swtich to the Ballymore don't forget.

With what is assumed targets currently Elliott has a 1-2 in the Triumph, and a place at best in the Supreme. However by switching Zanahiyr to the Supreme, and Ballyadam to the Ballymore, he has 3 potential winners and not 1.

Whilst I agree it probably won't happen, I would certainly not rate it as 0%.

As a precaution I did the Quilixios Triumph and Zanahiyr Supreme 47/1ew double before the weekend, and added a Ballyadam Ballymore 624/1ew treble after the weekend. All no runner no bet, so nothing to lose and bets to nothing just in case.
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It's 0%. I don't get these things wrong.
 
Slim said:
Chance of him running in the Supreme 0%
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You can give me an example when I've been wrong too. I took some **** on here for the UDS (Arkle) - Vatour (Jewson) doube at 20/1. That was a proper related bet.
 
Interviewed the other day, Jack Kennedy seemed to be saying it had already been decided that he was riding Zanahiyr in the Triumph regardless.

I got the impression Gordon Elliot sees Zanahiyr as a future Champion Hurdler. He did say he was more of 'speed horse' than Ballyadam ("more of a staying type in the future" or words to that effect).

I wouldn't worry about the course. His Fairyhouse time was top class and he went easily all through the race, while he cruised clear off a modest pace last time. I think he just outclasses everything.

He would probably win the Supreme but I wouldn't say it was because of the weight. It's just wfa, after all. He's just better than anything else.
 
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The Morans are sinking untold money into the yard. There is absolutely no way they are running it in a harder race to benefit another owner. They have Chevely Park sewn up and got a Grade 1 out of Quixilios already. It's less than 0% that he's runs in the Supreme.
 
Zanahiyr looks to be max bet material for the Triumph then.

Reckon the price will go? If 2/1 is readily available closer to the day, ill build some multis around it closer to the time.
 
Slim said:
You can give me an example when I've been wrong too. I took some **** on here for the UDS (Arkle) - Vatour (Jewson) doube at 20/1. That was a proper related bet.
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It was a good shout but you didn't take ****. You just had Grassy panicking! :lol:

The point with that bet you raise is the same as this one. Nrnb is cover for the 'just in case'. It doesn't need to happen for it to be a good thing to do, but I'm guessing you don't have a position to cover? So using the throwaway line of 100% is easy and doesn't matter. Plenty of people would have said that Vautour goes to the Ryanair 0%. Covering was still the smart thing to do.

Did you back the Honeysuckle DRF and Concertista Mares Hurdle double? If one thing happens the other becomes more likely and it was good cover for Honeysuckle Mares Hurdle bets. Plenty on here and elsewhere were saying Honeysuckle '100%' goes to the Mares Hurdle. 'She's not quick enough over two miles'. 'She can't win at the DRF against a better field'. 'She doens't jump quick enough or have the basic speed to win a Champion Hurdle'. The double as cover was just a sensible thing to do whether the chance was 5% or 95%. There is no 100% unless they categorically come out and say it. You don't know what Cheveley think, or the Moran's for that matter, let alone Gordon.

Essentially what you've done in your post is give a good reason to cover any eventialities with Zanahiyr if you've already got a position on him.

As I've said, I also think it's highly unlikely, but I like making money, not giving it away, and I don't work on 100%'s that aren't really 100%'s.
 
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