Bookies, Tote, Exchanges

[pawras]

You wouldn't think it possible but it looks like the bookies are even bigger thieves in Ireland than they are in UK with their over rounds.

 

[simmo]

It certainly looks like it. Perhaps we'd all be better off sticking to UK races with 2-5 runners....

 

[pawras]

I gather the overrounds go up with field size partly due to looking for profit margin per runner. But I don't think there's any excuse for a 16-20 chase hcaps in the UK to have a median over round of 126.75 but the same type of race in IRE to have a median over round of 140.63

 

[simmo]

I gather the overrounds go up with field size partly due to looking for profit margin per runner. But I don't think there's any excuse for a 16-20 chase hcaps in the UK to have a median over round of 126.75 but the same type of race in IRE to have a median over round of 140.63

Fair point - what does the table look like with an average over-round per runner column?

 

[pawras]

Fair point - what does the table look like with an average over-round per runner column?

For any you are particularly interested in you could probably just take the mid point of the no of runners range and compute by hand from the figures shown.

 

[Maruco]

When the UK bookies see that they'll use it as license to follow suit!

 

[simmo]

For any you are particularly interested in you could probably just take the mid point of the no of runners range and compute by hand from the figures shown.

I was coming at it from the angle of deciding if there was an advantage to be had in betting terms

 

[pawras]

I was coming at it from the angle of deciding if there was an advantage to be had in betting terms

In what way?

 

[simmo]

In what way?

If the race groupings are generally all the same on an over-round per runner (ORPR) basis, then the punter isn't losing out in UK races, but if there are a specific group of races where the ORPR is lower than for others, then there is a benefit to be gained from focusing on that type of race (and conversely, certain types of races could be avoided).

Clearly it's not going to be as useful in Ireland, where the punter is getting shafted all ways - which reminds me of an amusing line I heard describing the Ireland Scotland rugby match - "that was just a straight shafting, they didn't even give us a reach around".

 

[pawras]

I strongly believe that the tote if managed correctly, would give the bookies and exchanges a real run for their money but too much deadwood management when controlled by the state and sticky fingers re the take out since mean otherwise.
So as I decry the lack of foresight and investment etc when it comes to the tote and as I've now got the data (win, exacta and trifecta) into my own bespoke setup, although some further testing is required, I've done a comparison of the median win tote odds for the UK & IRE vs ISP.
See I've managed to put some of my enforced time off to good use.
Can someone enlighten me if the tote returns quoted for Irish racing are from the UK tote or Irish Tote?
But either way it does look like Baldy has been a robbing barsteward since he took over in mid 2011.

 

[Maruco]

The Tote died a death from the moment Fred Done took over. He used it to supplement profits by taking money from mugs and lazy people. The new consortium now guarantee to pay best price, I.e. their own or industry prices whichever is bigger. They’re well worth considering again. I use them usually for exactas and trifectas, but wouldn’t be averse to using them on the racecourse on a day out.

 

[Maruco]

The Tote died a death from the moment Fred Done took over. He used it to supplement profits by taking money from mugs and lazy people. The new consortium now guarantee to pay best price, I.e. their own or industry prices whichever is bigger. They’re well worth considering again. I use them usually for exactas and trifectas, but wouldn’t be averse to using them on the racecourse on a day out.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I've stated many times I would like to see at least an off-course Tote monopoly in the UK.

Bookmakers certainly add to the racecourse experience but more as a presence than a good betting facility. Some of their on-course over-rounds amount to little more than robbery. I once attracted a little attention to myself when calling out one bookie at Ayr for having a book that amounted to 240%. People around me were listening and asking what I meant but the bookie refused to engage in any discussion with me. If I stopped people from betting with him for a few minutes I consider my job done.

They also tend to offer poor prices, certainly at Ayr and Hamilton, which is where I'm more likely to go. You're often as well taking a price in the on-course betting shop or even asking for SP from one of the bookies.

I also reckon for the Tote to succeed as a monopoly it would have to be open to bettors from across the globe. It seems to work very well in many countries, especially in the far east.

(As an aside, I would also prefer to see the rules and regulations enforced as rigorously as in Hong Kong.)

You are right about Done. He's just another robbing so-and-so, in my opinion.

But until we have a viable option, I'm afraid they're here to stay.

 

[pawras]

Personally I'm not keen on monopolies in any sphere , gambling on or off course included, cos in my experience they just at the very least tend to breed deadwood & ineptitude within the org which increases running costs, and/or often greed re prices , either way it costs the end user.

However like I said I would like to see the tote ran with a long term view and inflict some real competition on the bookies and exchanges, instead of baldies milk it approach.

As I've been putting all the tricast and trifecta figures into my own bespoke set up, I've found that since 2013 baldie greatly increased (trebled) the number of races where trifectas are available, anyone know why?
And in the races where both tricasts and trifectas are available, trifectas have a significant median avg advantage over tricasts. However it should be noted that on a race by race basis the variation can swing wildly in either direction.

See charts below.

 

[archie]

Raised elsewhere.

Food for thought:
https://ukhbf.org/betting-charter/hbf-register-of-protection-of-funds/

 

[Grey]

As Maruco says, the new Tote best price policy is a significant step. However few people at Cheltenham seemed to be aware of it and dividends were announced in the ordinary way, even when they were going to be boosted in order to match SP. I wonder how sustainable the policy is in the long run though if the likes of JP start having it away with last minute bets into Tote pools that can’t be laid off in the ring?

 

[Slim]

As Maruco says, the new Tote best price policy is a significant step. However few people at Cheltenham seemed to be aware of it and dividends were announced in the ordinary way, even when they were going to be boosted in order to match SP. I wonder how sustainable the policy is in the long run though if the likes of JP start having it away with last minute bets into Tote pools that can’t be laid off in the ring?

Pretty sure it is a max of €500 stake. By increasing the turnover the Tote return should organically get closer to the SP.

 

[Maruco]

As I've been putting all the tricast and trifecta figures into my own bespoke set up, I've found that since 2013 baldie greatly increased (trebled) the number of races where trifectas are available, anyone know why?

What he did that the original Tote didn't was include non-handicaps for trifecta bets in every day racing. The original Tote only did this at the big Festivals.

 

[Maruco]

Pretty sure it is a max of €500 stake. By increasing the turnover the Tote return should organically get closer to the SP.

Maximum stake is £1000

 

[wilsonl]

So the Sky / Paddy / Betfair merger has been given the green light today. As somebody who can only currently bet with Sky I'm concerned that'll soon go and be aligned with the other two's restrictions.

This is simply not good news for the punter. Why not merge them all into one and they can shaft us any way they want.

Hopefully the Tote will gain strength and offer an alternative, along with the exchanges.

 

[Slim]

So the Sky / Paddy / Betfair merger has been given the green light today. As somebody who can only currently bet with Sky I'm concerned that'll soon go and be aligned with the other two's restrictions.

This is simply not good news for the punter. Why not merge them all into one and they can shaft us any way they want.

Hopefully the Tote will gain strength and offer an alternative, along with the exchanges.

It is really really difficult to integrate the operating platforms. The company is now so big that closing everyone will be very low on the priority list.

 

[pawras]

Yes it's very difficult to merge platforms but you don't have to , just do a select 'bad' customers from each platform , make a distinct list & apply back to each platform. Customers being identified across each by email addr or bank details.

 

[Slim]

Yes it's very difficult to merge platforms but you don't have to , just do a select 'bad' customers from each platform , make a distinct list & apply back to each platform. Customers being identified across each by email addr or bank details.

With the PP/Betfair merger they ended up raising customers stake factor on Betfair because they had been too heavy handed. Flutter will have access to 4 accounts data. This will likely help a lot of punters that were overly restricted.

 

[Slim]

just do a select 'bad' customers from each platform , make a distinct list & apply back to each platform.

You would first need to agree what a "bad customer" is and both sides might have differing views and analysis. This is far from clear cut. Mergers and a long long process.

 

[pawras]

If so good cos the most sky will take off me is about a fiver