Betfair Hurdle Sat Feb 12th 2022 Newbury

[Diamond Geezer]

Entries

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/36/newbury/2022-02-12/801439/

 

[Tanlic]

Boothill

 

[Desert Orchid]

When do the weights come out? They were out this time last year.

At that time I wrote:

10 of the last 11 winners ran next time in either the Supreme (7), Champion Hurdle (1, Zarkandar), Top Novices Aintree (1), County 1. The exception was [2020 winner] Pic D’Orhy who was kept back to go chasing this season.

Last year Soaring Glory went on to run in the Supreme as well, so the above would be my starting point for this year's renewal.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Found a site with the info - next week, the 19th for the weights.

Also, only 39 entries this season compared with 49 last season. I reckon there might not even need to be a cut to worry about. (A cu*t or two maybe...)

 

[Slim]

Jpr One is fascinating. I thought they took a big risk with his mark running in a 9k race on Monday. Bookies haven't missed him though. 14s not exactly a must get on price.

 

[Slim]

Also very interesting that Jonbon wasn't given 3 runs to qualify. Surely means Nicky has one.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Did he need three runs? Isn't it enough that he has an OR? I suspect Hendo has at least one plotted up.

Anyway, this is my best guess at how the weights will look:

[TABLE="width: 471"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Song For Someone
[/TD]
[TD]T Symonds
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[TD]11-12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Adagio
[/TD]
[TD]David Pipe
[/TD]
[TD]152
[/TD]
[TD]11-11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Whiskey Sour
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]11-8
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Soaring Glory
[/TD]
[TD]Jonjo O'Neill
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[TD]11-6
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Tritonic
[/TD]
[TD]Alan King
[/TD]
[TD]146
[/TD]
[TD]11-5
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cask Mate
[/TD]
[TD]Noel Meade
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Glory And Fortune
[/TD]
[TD]Tom Lacey
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]11-2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Stage Star
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]11-2
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Arctic Warrior
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]11-1
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Metier
[/TD]
[TD]Harry Fry
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Sea Ducor
[/TD]
[TD]A L T Moore
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] I Like To Move It
[/TD]
[TD]N T-Davies
[/TD]
[TD]138
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Onemorefortheroad
[/TD]
[TD]Neil King
[/TD]
[TD]138
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] No Ordinary Joe
[/TD]
[TD]N Henderson
[/TD]
[TD]136
[/TD]
[TD]10-09
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Boothill
[/TD]
[TD]Harry Fry
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]10-08
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Hudson De Grugy
[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]10-08
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Knappers Hill
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]10-08
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Luttrell Lad
[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]10-08
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Broomfield Burg
[/TD]
[TD]N Henderson
[/TD]
[TD]134
[/TD]
[TD]10-07
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Rowland Ward
[/TD]
[TD]S Edmunds
[/TD]
[TD]134
[/TD]
[TD]10-07
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Elle Est Belle
[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton
[/TD]
[TD]133
[/TD]
[TD]10-06
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Jetoile
[/TD]
[TD]Ryan Potter
[/TD]
[TD]133
[/TD]
[TD]10-06
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] First Street
[/TD]
[TD]N Henderson
[/TD]
[TD]132
[/TD]
[TD]10-05
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Hacker Des Places
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]132
[/TD]
[TD]10-05
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lucky One
[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton
[/TD]
[TD]132
[/TD]
[TD]10-05
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Captain Morgs
[/TD]
[TD]N Henderson
[/TD]
[TD]131
[/TD]
[TD]10-04
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fifty Ball
[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore
[/TD]
[TD]131
[/TD]
[TD]10-04
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Datsalrightgino
[/TD]
[TD]J Snowden
[/TD]
[TD]130
[/TD]
[TD]10-03
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Earth Company
[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs
[/TD]
[TD]130
[/TD]
[TD]10-03
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Jpr One
[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard
[/TD]
[TD]129
[/TD]
[TD]10-02
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Hystery Bere
[/TD]
[TD]T Symonds
[/TD]
[TD]128
[/TD]
[TD]10-01
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Knickerbockerglory
[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton
[/TD]
[TD]128
[/TD]
[TD]10-01
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Howdyalikemenow
[/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams
[/TD]
[TD]127
[/TD]
[TD]10-00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Washington
[/TD]
[TD]Olly Murphy
[/TD]
[TD]127
[/TD]
[TD]10-00
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] It's Good To Laugh
[/TD]
[TD]J Candlish
[/TD]
[TD]125
[/TD]
[TD]9-12
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Good Risk At All
[/TD]
[TD]Sam Thomas
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]9-11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lord Baddesley
[/TD]
[TD]Chris Gordon
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]9-11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Royaume Uni
[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]9-11
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Natural History
[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]9-01
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

 

[Double J]

Im convinced Whisky Sour is being plotted for something. I thought Martin Pipe but probably be a few too well in.

 

[Tanlic]

There was never a cat's chance I hell Jonbon would be sent to the Betfair. Was never even mentioned..JP would have thought Nicky had lost his mind if he suggested it. Nicky has couple with chances and does support the race with decent horses but I can't see him winning it this time round.Harry Fry's might just be chucked in...be interesting to see how the market plays out

 

[The Fortune Teller]

I will be following my gut and backing Metier. A big improvement the last day when fourth compared to his first pulled up effort this season. I know horses are not machines but on that improvement trajectory he can run a big race.

I will have a decent bet anti post shortly and hopefully with a bit of luck the ground may come up soft or even heavy on the day as he is good on that.

 

[Tanlic]

Jpr One is fascinating. I thought they took a big risk with his mark running in a 9k race on Monday. Bookies haven't missed him though. 14s not exactly a must get on price.

I got stuck into him on Monday and he absolutely hacked up...The fact he was beaten before that is concerning but I think he could be a blot in the h'cap...price is ok .....I would be Happy try o put him up with Fry's against the field

 

[Desert Orchid]

Jpr One is fascinating. I thought they took a big risk with his mark running in a 9k race on Monday. Bookies haven't missed him though. 14s not exactly a must get on price.

Looks like he's been dropped 2lbs for it!

 

[Diamond Geezer]

When do the weights come out? They were out this time last year.

Next Tuesday Jan 18th, race conditions below

 

[Desert Orchid]

Im convinced Whisky Sour is being plotted for something. I thought Martin Pipe but probably be a few too well in.

I think his recent good run knackered his mark.

 

[Desert Orchid]

JPR One will need a few to come out but it will probably happen. I don't see there being a maximum field.

 

[ep1987]

Onemorefortheroad is a very fair price at 16/1

 

[Tanlic]

JPR One is a very nice horse and the fact he stayes a bit further is a big plus
On a galloping track like Newbury in a huge field you have to get every yard of 2miles +

He was available at 15/1 for 60 pounds on the machine so I expect that will be the place to back him.....12/1 with the bookies is very stingy.

 

[Desert Orchid]

Onemorefortheroad is a very fair price at 16/1

OMFTR is long-list material at worst but 16/1 doesn't stir my juices. This far out I'm looking for 40/1 shots that might end up at single-figure prices, the ones just off the radar while the McManus/Mullins/Hendo types grab the general betting public's attention.

Then again, I'm just a sucker for 40/1 shots in races of this nature

 

[Desert Orchid]

Did he need three runs? Isn't it enough that he has an OR? I suspect Hendo has at least one plotted up.

Anyway, this is my best guess at how the weights will look:

[TABLE="width: 471"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse[/TD]
[TD]Trainer[/TD]
[TD]OR[/TD]
[TD]Weight[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Song For Someone[/TD]
[TD]T Symonds[/TD]
[TD]153[/TD]
[TD]11-12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Adagio[/TD]
[TD]David Pipe[/TD]
[TD]152[/TD]
[TD]11-11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Whiskey Sour[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins[/TD]
[TD]149[/TD]
[TD]11-8[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Soaring Glory[/TD]
[TD]Jonjo O'Neill[/TD]
[TD]147[/TD]
[TD]11-6[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Tritonic[/TD]
[TD]Alan King[/TD]
[TD]146[/TD]
[TD]11-5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cask Mate[/TD]
[TD]Noel Meade[/TD]
[TD]145[/TD]
[TD]11-4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Glory And Fortune[/TD]
[TD]Tom Lacey[/TD]
[TD]143[/TD]
[TD]11-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Stage Star[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[/TD]
[TD]143[/TD]
[TD]11-2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Arctic Warrior[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins[/TD]
[TD]142[/TD]
[TD]11-1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Metier[/TD]
[TD]Harry Fry[/TD]
[TD]139[/TD]
[TD]10-12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Sea Ducor[/TD]
[TD]A L T Moore[/TD]
[TD]139[/TD]
[TD]10-12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] I Like To Move It[/TD]
[TD]N T-Davies[/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]10-11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Onemorefortheroad[/TD]
[TD]Neil King[/TD]
[TD]138[/TD]
[TD]10-11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] No Ordinary Joe[/TD]
[TD]N Henderson[/TD]
[TD]136[/TD]
[TD]10-09[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Boothill[/TD]
[TD]Harry Fry[/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]10-08[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Hudson De Grugy[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore[/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]10-08[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Knappers Hill[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]10-08[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Luttrell Lad[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs[/TD]
[TD]135[/TD]
[TD]10-08[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Broomfield Burg[/TD]
[TD]N Henderson[/TD]
[TD]134[/TD]
[TD]10-07[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Rowland Ward[/TD]
[TD]S Edmunds[/TD]
[TD]134[/TD]
[TD]10-07[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Elle Est Belle[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton[/TD]
[TD]133[/TD]
[TD]10-06[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Jetoile[/TD]
[TD]Ryan Potter[/TD]
[TD]133[/TD]
[TD]10-06[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] First Street[/TD]
[TD]N Henderson[/TD]
[TD]132[/TD]
[TD]10-05[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Hacker Des Places[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls[/TD]
[TD]132[/TD]
[TD]10-05[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lucky One[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton[/TD]
[TD]132[/TD]
[TD]10-05[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Captain Morgs[/TD]
[TD]N Henderson[/TD]
[TD]131[/TD]
[TD]10-04[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fifty Ball[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore[/TD]
[TD]131[/TD]
[TD]10-04[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Datsalrightgino[/TD]
[TD]J Snowden[/TD]
[TD]130[/TD]
[TD]10-03[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Earth Company[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs[/TD]
[TD]130[/TD]
[TD]10-03[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Jpr One[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard[/TD]
[TD]129[/TD]
[TD]10-02[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Hystery Bere[/TD]
[TD]T Symonds[/TD]
[TD]128[/TD]
[TD]10-01[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Knickerbockerglory[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton[/TD]
[TD]128[/TD]
[TD]10-01[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Howdyalikemenow[/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams[/TD]
[TD]127[/TD]
[TD]10-00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Washington[/TD]
[TD]Olly Murphy[/TD]
[TD]127[/TD]
[TD]10-00[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] It's Good To Laugh[/TD]
[TD]J Candlish[/TD]
[TD]125[/TD]
[TD]9-12[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Good Risk At All[/TD]
[TD]Sam Thomas[/TD]
[TD]124[/TD]
[TD]9-11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lord Baddesley[/TD]
[TD]Chris Gordon[/TD]
[TD]124[/TD]
[TD]9-11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Royaume Uni[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore[/TD]
[TD]124[/TD]
[TD]9-11[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Natural History[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore[/TD]
[TD]114[/TD]
[TD]9-01[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

Using the above 'assumed' ORs and weights, this is how RPRs currently have them:

[TABLE="width: 540"]
<tbody>[TR]
[TD]Horse
[/TD]
[TD]Weight
[/TD]
[TD]Trainer
[/TD]
[TD]OR
[/TD]
[TD]RPR
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Natural History
[/TD]
[TD]9-01
[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore
[/TD]
[TD]114
[/TD]
[TD]170L
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lucky One
[/TD]
[TD]10-05
[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton
[/TD]
[TD]132
[/TD]
[TD]167
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Glory And Fortune
[/TD]
[TD]11-2
[/TD]
[TD]Tom Lacey
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]165
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Metier
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]Harry Fry
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]164
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Fifty Ball
[/TD]
[TD]10-04
[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore
[/TD]
[TD]131
[/TD]
[TD]163
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Song For Someone
[/TD]
[TD]11-12
[/TD]
[TD]T Symonds
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[TD]161
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Onemorefortheroad
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]Neil King
[/TD]
[TD]138
[/TD]
[TD]160
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Lord Baddesley
[/TD]
[TD]9-11
[/TD]
[TD]Chris Gordon
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]160L
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Boothill
[/TD]
[TD]10-08
[/TD]
[TD]Harry Fry
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]158
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Hudson De Grugy
[/TD]
[TD]10-08
[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]158
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Knappers Hill
[/TD]
[TD]10-08
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]158
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Broomfield Burg
[/TD]
[TD]10-07
[/TD]
[TD]N Henderson
[/TD]
[TD]134
[/TD]
[TD]158
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Howdyalikemenow
[/TD]
[TD]10-00
[/TD]
[TD]Evan Williams
[/TD]
[TD]127
[/TD]
[TD]158
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Adagio
[/TD]
[TD]11-11
[/TD]
[TD]David Pipe
[/TD]
[TD]152
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] No Ordinary Joe
[/TD]
[TD]10-09
[/TD]
[TD]N Henderson
[/TD]
[TD]136
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Elle Est Belle
[/TD]
[TD]10-06
[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton
[/TD]
[TD]133
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Captain Morgs
[/TD]
[TD]10-04
[/TD]
[TD]N Henderson
[/TD]
[TD]131
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Jpr One
[/TD]
[TD]10-02
[/TD]
[TD]Colin Tizzard
[/TD]
[TD]129
[/TD]
[TD]157
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] It's Good To Laugh
[/TD]
[TD]9-12
[/TD]
[TD]J Candlish
[/TD]
[TD]125
[/TD]
[TD]157L
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Royaume Uni
[/TD]
[TD]9-11
[/TD]
[TD]Gary Moore
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]157L
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Rowland Ward
[/TD]
[TD]10-07
[/TD]
[TD]S Edmunds
[/TD]
[TD]134
[/TD]
[TD]156
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Jetoile
[/TD]
[TD]10-06
[/TD]
[TD]Ryan Potter
[/TD]
[TD]133
[/TD]
[TD]156
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Hacker Des Places
[/TD]
[TD]10-05
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]132
[/TD]
[TD]156
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Hystery Bere
[/TD]
[TD]10-01
[/TD]
[TD]T Symonds
[/TD]
[TD]128
[/TD]
[TD]156
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Soaring Glory
[/TD]
[TD]11-6
[/TD]
[TD]Jonjo O'Neill
[/TD]
[TD]147
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Tritonic
[/TD]
[TD]11-5
[/TD]
[TD]Alan King
[/TD]
[TD]146
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Stage Star
[/TD]
[TD]11-2
[/TD]
[TD]Paul Nicholls
[/TD]
[TD]143
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Luttrell Lad
[/TD]
[TD]10-08
[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs
[/TD]
[TD]135
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Earth Company
[/TD]
[TD]10-03
[/TD]
[TD]Philip Hobbs
[/TD]
[TD]130
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Knickerbockerglory
[/TD]
[TD]10-01
[/TD]
[TD]Dan Skelton
[/TD]
[TD]128
[/TD]
[TD]155
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Whiskey Sour
[/TD]
[TD]11-8
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]149
[/TD]
[TD]154
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] I Like To Move It
[/TD]
[TD]10-11
[/TD]
[TD]N T-Davies
[/TD]
[TD]138
[/TD]
[TD]154
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Good Risk At All
[/TD]
[TD]9-11
[/TD]
[TD]Sam Thomas
[/TD]
[TD]124
[/TD]
[TD]154L
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] First Street
[/TD]
[TD]10-05
[/TD]
[TD]N Henderson
[/TD]
[TD]132
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Datsalrightgino
[/TD]
[TD]10-03
[/TD]
[TD]J Snowden
[/TD]
[TD]130
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Washington
[/TD]
[TD]10-00
[/TD]
[TD]Olly Murphy
[/TD]
[TD]127
[/TD]
[TD]153
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Sea Ducor
[/TD]
[TD]10-12
[/TD]
[TD]A L T Moore
[/TD]
[TD]139
[/TD]
[TD]152
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Cask Mate
[/TD]
[TD]11-4
[/TD]
[TD]Noel Meade
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[TD]145
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD] Arctic Warrior
[/TD]
[TD]11-1
[/TD]
[TD]W P Mullins
[/TD]
[TD]142
[/TD]
[TD]144
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]


On the above scale, a RP rating of 162 would represent a bang-average winner so you can see that the race is set up to go to an unexposed type.

For the moment, I'm happy to rule out Natural History as having lost the plot and even if it were a plot it will be 13lbs 'wrong' if SFS stands its ground.

Lucky One might be flattered by its large-margin win in bottomless ground.

Glory And Fortune is rated on its Christmas Hurdle form, which also might flatter it.

Metier will be a definite bet for me. As Marb says, it looked on the way back last time and I've put it up in both runs this season. It's back down to its pre-Challow mark.

Gary Moore usually plots one or two for this race and had a go with Fifty Ball last year. It's also back on a similar mark.

If SFS were to make the running, he could run his race but just set it up for an improver. They'll say he's the class horse because he's got top weight but he's giving a stone to Metier who was rated 3lbs below him after winning the Challow.

As I said, beyond them - and there are grounds for opposing them - you'd be looking at an improver and ideally one that holds a G1 Festival engagement.

 

[Slim]

Looks like he's been dropped 2lbs for it!

That mark won't be revised until Monday?

 

[Diamond Geezer]

Re Good Risk At All I see Dessie anticipates him being given 9st 11lb, he has entries in two hurdle races Mon 17th at Chepstow and Exeter on Tuesday 18th. Penalty of 5lb due if he wins either.

Does this mean they will be trying to win whichever race he runs in, if at all ?

 

[Desert Orchid]

That mark won't be revised until Monday?

I checked that last night, Slim, as I was thinking the same. When he ran on Monday he was rated the 2lbs higher. I was presuming the lower mark is a result of that win against poor opposition.

 

[Slim]

I checked that last night, Slim, as I was thinking the same. When he ran on Monday he was rated the 2lbs higher. I was presuming the lower mark is a result of that win against poor opposition.

I can't believe that. BHA site saying the mark was updated on the 11th. I thought he'd get 3 or 4 lbs.

 

[Slim]

Someone confirmed to me thst the drop doesn't taken into account Monday's win. It's turned out to be great placing.

 

[an capall]

I've had decent bet (for me, pittance for most others) on Jpr1 at 15s. I think he could go off as fav.