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2000 Guineas

Eleanora Duse said:
Find it hard to believe there wasn't any draw advantage today:-

Winners 1, 4, 7, 1, 1, 6, 3, 6
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Yes, it occurred to me that if NT and Eydon had been drawn lower the former might have won and the latter might have been third.

I look forward to getting a closer look at the form on Wednesday but, off the top of my head, I'm thinking Coroebus is at worst an average winner {based on 126 being 'average'] and NT pretty much about the same level.

I see Luxembourg has gone blue for the Derby but I can't really see the price shortening much more in the next four weeks. He remains the most likely winner at this stage but I remain encouraged by Eydon's run.
 
The draw was nowhere near the factor it was in the Palace House where Twilight Calls (who is a bet in the King's Stand)was carried towards the stand rail at one point. NT and the winner were almost upsides each other at one point.
 
Coroebus has more boot which was key. Probably committed sooner than ideal as was spooked by Luxembourg on his outer. Ideally would have sat longer and won more snug.
Luxembourg looked the Derby horse beforehand and ran well, especially given what happened early on. Was always on the back foot.
 
Frankel said:
Coroebus has more boot which was key. Probably committed sooner than ideal as was spooked by Luxembourg on his outer. Ideally would have sat longer and won more snug.
Luxembourg looked the Derby horse beforehand and ran well, especially given what happened early on. Was always on the back foot.
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I would just be worried that the APOB 3yo colts might not be good enough this year. Appleby has 3 or 4 he could run in the Derby. They fancied Point Lonsdale today and lets be honest he was bitterly dissapinting. 5/2 Luxenbourg around Epsom is not my idea of a bet.
 
Slim said:
I would just be worried that the APOB 3yo colts might not be good enough this year. Appleby has 3 or 4 he could run in the Derby. They fancied Point Lonsdale today and lets be honest he was bitterly dissapinting. 5/2 Luxenbourg around Epsom is not my idea of a bet.
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How the hell was Point Lonsdale that short? Staggered.

I get the Epsom argument with Luxembourg but I'll just say Adayar! Lingfield put me right off him last year! Ouch.
 
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Frankel said:
How the hell was point Lonsdale that short? Staggered.

I get the Epsom argument with Luxembourg but I'll just say Adayar! Lingfield put me right off him last year! Ouch.
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It's more an ability argument than anything else. Charlie Appleby has the best colts and it feels like the market is still in bed with Aidan O'Brien.
 
Slim said:
It's more an ability argument than anything else. Charlie Appleby has the best colts and it feels like the market is still in bed with Aidan O'Brien.
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Appleby clearly has some nice sorts. The trials will hopefully sort them out. Buick could just maybe be on the wrong one again, like he was at Newbury.
 
Unusual for him, but I reckon Buick got the pace wrong. He was trailing his stable mate until about 3 down, then went to quickly from that point to make up the leeway. Doyler had a smoother passage, and it showed in the final stages (much to my chagrin).
 
Frankel said:
How the hell was Point Lonsdale that short? Staggered.

I get the Epsom argument with Luxembourg but I'll just say Adayar! Lingfield put me right off him last year! Ouch.
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IT factor for Point Lonsdale, who said after wanted further.

Really pleased for James Doyle, deserved a nice win. Thoroughly decent, hard working young man. Haven't seen any post race quotes really other than Doyles', but would be interested to see what William Buick thought as he breeding suggests Native Trail might have been stretched there, although physically looks as if a mile shouldn't be a problem ( I know looks mean nothing really but ... )
 
I know it’s water under the bridge, but I am busy cursing myself for a fool for not hedging NT because of the draw. I’ve looked again and again at the earlier races and it seems to me significant that when they enter the dip it is the horses on the far side that do most the moving forward, which indicates that they were on the faster ground. Yesterday, I had concentrated on looking at the final furlong which was a mistake since stamina differences would have obscured ground effect. Pillock I am.
 
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BJ,
Draw bias, on most straight tracks is no more than a myth.
Today's g/s descriptions had the faster ground up the centre, with both sides,almost identically, slow. What happened today - as it does most days in similar circumstances - the jocks went where the pace was, and it was no different today to most straight track races.
 
reet hard said:
BJ,
Draw bias, on most straight tracks is no more than a myth.
Today's g/s descriptions had the faster ground up the centre, with both sides,almost identically, slow. What happened today - as it does most days in similar circumstances - the jocks went where the pace was, and it was no different today to most straight track races.
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:nono:
 
reet hard said:
BJ,
Draw bias, on most straight tracks is no more than a myth.
Today's g/s descriptions had the faster ground up the centre, with both sides,almost identically, slow. What happened today - as it does most days in similar circumstances - the jocks went where the pace was, and it was no different today to most straight track races.
Click to expand...

After watering? Seems some myth - here’s the straight track winners’ draw for the meeting: 5 2 2 2 1 1 4 7 1 1 3 6 2 3 3 1 3 1 that’s 50% drawn 1 or 2 and both Guineas 1.
 
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Slim said:
Well just look at the 4.50 Newmarket and Tom Marquand versus the other jockeys. Then tell me they are super intelligient and ride to cut out any bias. Do they ****.
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That just proves my point, 1st & 2nd both up with the pace, the others switched over to them, when they'd cottoned on.
 
reet hard said:
That just proves my point, 1st & 2nd both up with the pace, the others switched over to them, when they'd cottoned on.
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Er, doesn’t it also prove the point that the pace was to be found on the far side’s better ground - and it would have hardly have hopped over to there for the last race. Seems to me it’s further confirmation of a draw bias after watering. They were drawn 1and 2.
 
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Why would they water just one side of the course. with only a slight breeze?
IIRCC, the going stick reading was almost identical to yesterday's.
Tell you what, you and Slim watch any future straigt-track races, and let me know how many times I'm wrong. It won't be manybased on years of experience of dealing with other doubters in the past.
It's a myth - which most clued-up jocks would agree.
 


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