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2000 Guineas

I'm hearing that the O'Brien 3yos are a bit underwhelming. That would tie in with the Waterville hype not lasting one race. The boys in blue could sweep the board this year with their colts starting with Native Trail.
 
Desert Orchid said:
ASN didn't win.

(Sorry for reminding you.)

I accept that ratings aren't everything in these races but they're a starting point. In due course, we'll get sectionals and other time-based analyses but they in turn might point to its being a moderate race.

I always like the Craven form. It's often one of the better trials and it's pointed me in the direction of the winner more than once. Native Trail might well be a good thing come the day. I'm just saying that today didn't prove anything other than he's alive and well.
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Since 1970 only Dancing Brave 15/8 in 1986, and Doyoun 4/5 in 1988 have won the Craven and gone on to win the 2000 guineas....
 
The biggest rrason it hasn't been done 10 times is Aidan O'Brien. A meaningless trend.
 
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While I AM a big fan of Native Trail, I still recall something that should amount to a word of caution: Pinatubo.
 
Yes agree. Pinatubo was the finished article at two. The others then caught up with him. Native Trail is far bigger and scopier. My only slight issue with him as already mentioned on here is his high knee action. Wouldn’t think he’d enjoy quick ground.
 
Weren't they saying before the race the other day that he was so big as a juvenile it's possible the others will catch up with him this year?

Didn't Cumani say he already looked like a 3yo last summer?
 
Native Trail remains me to Hawk Wing and Spencer is not riding
He will win the guineas in the style of Zafonic.
Proper horse
 
15 declared. Coroebus drawn 1 and Native Trail 15. However the stalls are in the centre of the track so no hella bias.

I've got a nice AP position on Coroebus and have cover on the fav. My plan is to have a nice back to lay possie on the former lay to back on Native Trail who tends to hit a flat spot.
 
Euronymous said:
15 declared. Coroebus drawn 1 and Native Trail 15. However the stalls are in the centre of the track so no hella bias.

I've got a nice AP position on Coroebus and have cover on the fav. My plan is to have a nice back to lay possie on the former lay to back on Native Trail who tends to hit a flat spot.
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If other races suggest there's a golden highway down one rail - the jockeys might not bother to try finding out - then the ones drawn on the opposite side might be disadvantaged.

I'm hoping to look at the race in more detail later today but I see a near-throwaway line in Paul Kealy's Weekender piece that he likes Eydon as well.

Re backing to lay, don't you need to be very quick if you're doing this when watching on TV? There's a definite time lag between live action and telly pictures* and watching via something like a Firestick might cause an even longer delay. Aren't you up against keyboard pros watching it live at the track? Your bet could be fvcked before you even press the return button.

*I've noticed recently that "live" football commentaries [on BBC Radio Scotland at any rate] are up to five minutes behind the real live action.
 
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Lat year's race had 16 runners and there wasn't a rail bias. Paul Kealy is excellent at handicaps.
 
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With no rain recently it's surprising that the going is Good/ good to firm in places. Well not really, because they've been watering.. However no rain is forecast until Sunday. With the 2000 being the 5th race on the card and the weather for Saturday forecast as being dry and warm (well 17deg) by 3.40pm the going could be good to firm. I don't think that will suit Native Trail but it may also affect my selection Perfect Power.

The fact that they've been watering could affect the draw bias. Last year on watered good to firm ground in both the 2000 and 1000, only one of the top 3 finishers in each race was drawn higher than 4.
 

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