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2000 Guineas

Today's Victoria Cup should be interesting from a straight-course pace/draw perspective. Going stick has far side marginally faster and ATR suggests there's pace that side too.
I'd doubt that where the pace falls is predictable with 28 runners, but I reckon it's a safe bet the principals will be close to it.
 
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I've just done my first trawl of the times at the meeting.

Nobody seems to be alert to the fact that the time for the 2000 Guineas was only 14lbs faster than the 3yo CD race later in the day, the winner of which went up to 'only' 93.

Sectionals might have a way of explaining away the [lack of] differential but it doesn't exactly scream brilliance. But maybe the handicap will qualify for the strong form thread. I'll need to give it some more attention.

(I do think Coroebus is up to scratch but I worry about this kind of evidence.)
 
reet hard said:
Today's Victoria Cup should be interesting from a straight-course pace/draw perspective. Going stick has far side marginally faster and ATR suggests there's pace that side too.
I'd doubt that where the pace falls is predictable with 28 runners, but I reckon it's a safe bet the principals will be close to it.
Click to expand...
First 3 from the highest 3 draws yesterday - the easier ground (officially).
No surprise, that's where the pace was, and underlines what happened in the Guineas.
Come to your own conclusions about golden highways etc, mine have been the same for years.
 
reet hard said:
First 3 from the highest 3 draws yesterday - the easier ground (officially).
No surprise, that's where the pace was, and underlines what happened in the Guineas.
Come to your own conclusions about golden highways etc, mine have been the same for years.
Click to expand...

You wouldn't want to use this arguement in the Supreme Court.
 
And why not?:)
Incidentally, Simon Rowlands uses sectionals to rate Coreobus the better horse - not in my book, he just got the better ride on the day.
Native Trail is 1/2 for next week's Irish Guineas, but I reckon he was held up in the race owing to stamina doubts, and the Curragh would hardly be the track to find out.
 
reet hard said:
First 3 from the highest 3 draws yesterday - the easier ground (officially).
No surprise, that's where the pace was, and underlines what happened in the Guineas.
Come to your own conclusions about golden highways etc, mine have been the same for years.
Click to expand...

Reet, I not sure that I understand why draw advantage and “where the pace is” are incompatible. On a tight course like Chester the pace is likely to be on the inside isn’t it, which is much the same thing as saying there is a draw advantage to being drawn on the inside. Where there is inconsistency in the ground pace is likely to be found where the ground is faster isn’t it, which again is much the same as saying there is a draw advantage to being drawn on the faster ground. Aren’t we more or less saying the same thing?
 
reet hard said:
And why not?:)
Incidentally, Simon Rowlands uses sectionals to rate Coreobus the better horse - not in my book, he just got the better ride on the day.
Native Trail is 1/2 for next week's Irish Guineas, but I reckon he was held up in the race owing to stamina doubts, and the Curragh would hardly be the track to find out.
Click to expand...

Coroebus has come from behind Native Trail. Was in front long enough. Doyle hand was forced with runner on outer and seeing what was happening on other side. No doubt if Coreobus was along side Native Trail then he would have sat longer and won snug. I certainly wouldn't be blaming the ride for the result.
Clearly the pace/ground is another debate.
 
barjon said:
Reet, I not sure that I understand why draw advantage and “where the pace is” are incompatible. On a tight course like Chester the pace is likely to be on the inside isn’t it, which is much the same thing as saying there is a draw advantage to being drawn on the inside. Where there is inconsistency in the ground pace is likely to be found where the ground is faster isn’t it, which again is much the same as saying there is a draw advantage to being drawn on the faster ground. Aren’t we more or less saying the same thing?
Click to expand...
Didn't The Victoria Cup shoot that notion down in flames?
 
reet hard said:
Didn't The Victoria Cup shoot that notion down in flames?
Click to expand...

Maybe, maybe not, it’s not always going be the case, but isn’t it likely that horses running on slightly faster ground will find themselves at the forefront of things?
 
reet hard said:
And why not?:)
Incidentally, Simon Rowlands uses sectionals to rate Coreobus the better horse - not in my book, he just got the better ride on the day.
Native Trail is 1/2 for next week's Irish Guineas, but I reckon he was held up in the race owing to stamina doubts, and the Curragh would hardly be the track to find out.
Click to expand...

Stamina doubts? What stamina doubts? He'll get 10f.
 
reet hard said:
By Oasis Dream out of sister to a 6f horse?
Click to expand...

I think you have to go on run style with NT. Oasis Dream's top horses have strange stamina requirements - his best colt was out of a Linamix mare but was a sprinter yet his best filly was out of a Kingmambo mare and stayed 12f (better at 10).
 

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