Judgement of pace

[reet hard]

It's my view (all others welcomed) that an understanding of pace is essential for the serious form student,and we've all encountered the mathematicians who believe in applying a set formula with the aid of a stop-watch and basing their selections on that approach.
Not for me; pace has many subtelties, some only discernible to a capable race-reader, flat or jumps,and the change of speed needed to overtake another, jump a fence, increase or reduce the pace,are often missed by the time students, allied of course to the ground, distance,or class of the protagonists.
Class, in my view, is the ability to produce that little extra when it matters and applies(imo) to almost any sport you can think of.
Just my view, fair enough, and many will difffer, but the intention is to open up discussion on a fascinating subject,which will ultimately lead to a better understanding, for me and anyone who's interested.

 

[barjon]

Agree with that, reet. I suppose the most eye catching element is change of pace and most champions have the ability to put the race to bed in a few strides.

One of the things that confuses me is the “the jockey is a fine judge of pace” which is fair enough except that I would guess each horse has its own optimum pace. The added complication is that jockeys may not be able to get it running at its optimum pace because it will pull so hard if they do and waste loads of energy.

 

[reet hard]

Most leading jocks are form students anyway, and will be aware of the likely pace, and where it's coming from. Much depends on their draw and, with the trainer's input, will know how best to ride their charge.
Imo, if they've copped a poor draw, they'll collude with the trainer in giving the horse an 'easy', which we've seen so many times over the years.
Fwiw, all part of punting's rich tapestry, of course. A good pace judge (jockey) is worth 7-10lbs in suitable circumstances I reckon,BJ

 

[EC21]

I have not cherry picked this. I have just looked at the previous days racing results looking for a "FAST" race in the form line on ATR in a horse's formline. First race I noted in the first horse's form I looked at was, so it was random, that was "FAST", was one on 22nd August at Southwell. The race was won by BIPLANE. A race where being off the pace was an advantage because the early runners had gone too fast in front. To run evenish pace you needed to be away from the pace if it is too fast. The winner did just that, Biplane kept away from it and won. The horses to note were HARBOUR VISION ran 3rd beaten by 1.75 and a nk. This horse led in a race where it was pace disadvantaged here suggesting that it was in form to be able to do that. It then raced once more leading and losing, then Won at 4/1 on 13th September, has since won twice more.

In the original race on 22 August, the other horse to note was SIMULATION THEORY who was also on the strong pace and finished less than a length behind Harbour Vision. Next time out won after leading most of the way at 9/4.

This is a classic example of you getting a "tell" that a horse is well in itself. Only fit horses keep going in the last two furlongs when running in the front rank in over fast races, horses that are so so in themselves, or not fully fit, drop back like stones in that scenario. When they don't drop in a hole late on, you know they are fit for the next run or so.

"Tells" are hard to see in horse racing, but sometimes, we can spot them as in this case and there are many others like the above example. Trainers might give a "tell" when they, or connections gamble a horse, some are good at it. But when horses keep going when they shouldn't do in a previous race... it is a big "tell" that that horse is in form and fit, even though not winning on that occasion. Get on in next few runs. You know the horse is fit and ready if it can run and still keep going against a pace bias as in the race above. Fit horses are what we want to be on, and you can tell if they are fit and ready when seeing such as the above.

I hope that makes sense, I'm old and it's 3 in the morning

 

[EC21]

I'm starting to get dragged back into this pace stuff. Your fault Reet

 

[EC21]

Before that fast or slow pace was known to the wider public, I used to know those horses that had run in fast and slow races, simply by timing the sectionals myself, I had an edge. I am not so sure that is true now with all the pace analysis that is now out there. Five years ago I had a spreadheet I kept religiously for mainly AW tracks, but like I said, daily timing races is not a great hobby. You have to have an obsessional personality to do that every day that you get up. I can't do it now and with all this info being out there anyway, there seems little point. That doesn't mean it isn't useful, many punters still give it no interest. A mistake imo, there is still an edge, but now the hard work is done for us. Just a matter of keeping up with it. I am too lazy now, but there are many "tells" for the future re pace out there.

 

[EC21]

If anyone wants to make the AW pay, this is a great way of doing it. You just need to apply yourself on a daily basis. It is hard, even with lots of the analysis now done for you.

I would say that making money from AW racing is a full time job, if you can't spend that much time, you may fall short sadly. I can't add any more. This could be a really good thread.

 

[EC21]

Re jockeys with a clock in their head.

I used do some Derby pace analysis, I started going back in to the past too to the other big winners. Steve Cauthen rode Reference Point at such a similar pace to Slip Anchors Derby win that it was uncanny. Watching both races they look so different. But he rode both horses to similar pace. Just shows his skill. He was, apart from Lester, the best judge of pace we have seen. In one race he led easily on Slip Anchor, he knew he hadn't gone too fast, in the other he was contested, but in both races he knew he had ridden the race evenly, so he wasn't vulnerable in either if he had the best horse. Slip Anchors Derby showed just how far in front of other jockeys he was. He was a pace genius imo.

 

[Grasshopper]

Honest question this.

What is the desired objective from pace analysis?

Is it to try and identify 'class' horses (and possibly smarter-than-average jockeys), in order that they can be backed to advantage next time up? I ask this, because my position (right or wrong) has always been that you can't really know/predict what pace a race will be run at beforehand, and I've therefore always wondered what value the analysis delivers, in terms of giving one an edge.

Secondary question. Is the analysis deemed to be more valuable in one Code or the other, or broadly the same in both?

Cheers.

 

[reet hard]

Good stuff,EC.
Not really my bag, and the ground is uncertain yet, but I've had a go at the KG from a pace angle.
BMG was impressive at Wetherby and the time looked good, but he was unchallenged at the business end of the race, and gave the impression of being a speed horse. Taken out of a race at the festival owing to soft ground, and spent most of his cereer beating up small fields, an he'd be th first one I'd dismiss.
Could still win,given a soft lead, but that seems unlikely.
L'Homme Presse's best t/s figure came when making all at Cheltenham in January, at 2.5m.Owner stated he'd need plenty of rain to run here, but that's in the lap of the gods.
First try at 3m, so unlikely to be forcing pace,imo. Couldn't have him,either.
Envoy Allen won on his first try at 3m but that in a race run at a nothing pace, his best t/s was over shorter. Unproven at this trip,at a good pace, but may make all which would be interesting.
Hitman's another stepping up in trip, and probably ran his best race over 2.4m at Aintree, at a good pace where he looked to need further. Looks sure to make first 3,imo.
Royale Pagaile hasn't achieved much pacewise and that he's the stable's second string, about sums up his chances, imo.
Ahoy Senor is on my short list, so I'll keep it brief. there are excuses for his 2 runs this season, and it's notable that he made all,at a good pace, in amall field at Aintree in April.We'll see.

 

[Grasshopper]

Apologies if I've misinterpreted the above, reet, but this isn't L'Homme Presse's first try at 3m - he won the RSA Chase at the Festival. Assume you were talking about something else, but can't figure out which runner (can't be Eldorado Allen, so maybe Miller's Bank - but even he ran over 3m at Punchestown Festival as a novice?).

FYI, the track copped 18mm yesterday, with more rain expected Christmas Day. The Clerk is expecting it to ride Soft, and with the possibility of Heavy in places, if tomorrow's rain is at the top-end of expectations.

Edit: I suppose you could be being very specific about L'HP, as he's never run over exactly 3m.

 

[reet hard]

You're right Grassy, though I would mitigate by pointing out that RSA was run at a leisurely pace.

 

[reet hard]

The 3.35 Wolver has thrown a pace prospect up.
Street Kid ran in a better class, strongly run race over c/d latest, but had to cut across from his outside draw to take the early lead,and was subsequently take on by 2 others.As a consequence he had nothing left to give from when conservatively ridden Documenting passed him (check it out on ATR's sectional tools).
Down in class with a fairer draw, I considerhim a good bet at B365''s 13/2 (BOG). He's 8/1 in a place, ew first 3,if that's your bag.

 

[reet hard]

Honest question this.

What is the desired objective from pace analysis?

Is it to try and identify 'class' horses (and possibly smarter-than-average jockeys), in order that they can be backed to advantage next time up? I ask this, because my position (right or wrong) has always been that you can't really know/predict what pace a race will be run at beforehand, and I've therefore always wondered what value the analysis delivers, in terms of giving one an edge.

Secondary question. Is the analysis deemed to be more valuable in one Code or the other, or broadly the same in both?

Cheers.

Missed this, Grass.
Imo,study of pace should highlight horses advantaged/disadvantaged by the speed of various stages of the race which has an inbuilt edge for a decent race-reader. Predict the pace of a race is far from straight forward, and I'll get it wrong more often than not,but it should improve for studying often.Having said that the likely leaders, or followers, are generally easier to predict.
Different codes, different strokes but it's handier on the flat,imo. Don't do much NH as the longer distances give too many opportunities for changes of pace, but I guess they may be useful in estasblishing how a horse jumps at various speeds.
You've got to love it to do it regularly though.

 

[EC21]

Honest question this.

What is the desired objective from pace analysis?

Is it to try and identify 'class' horses (and possibly smarter-than-average jockeys), in order that they can be backed to advantage next time up? I ask this, because my position (right or wrong) has always been that you can't really know/predict what pace a race will be run at beforehand, and I've therefore always wondered what value the analysis delivers, in terms of giving one an edge.

Secondary question. Is the analysis deemed to be more valuable in one Code or the other, or broadly the same in both?

Cheers.

For me, I wanted to know horses that showed they are fit by running against a pace bias and so then back them 3 times afterwards until they won, or then discard them. On the flat you have to be fit to run too fast early in a race and still be there at the finish, it is a fitness "tell". You also have to be fit to finish in a slow run race from the back of the field. That aspect sometimes just shows a speedy horse against less speedy oppo, but unfit horses won't do that usually. So to sum it up, you are spotting horses that "tell" you they are in good form without winning.

It isn't the same with how you guys look at NH races. The advantage you NH fans have is that you get to see horses for a long time, you weigh up their favoured conditions and I assume usually decide your bet on if they are favourably treated on that day. Pace is still important NH wise, but usually on the day. We are currently discussing Frodon on the other thread. I wouldn't want to back a front running horse against him, I would expect they would take themselves on. Frodon is a bit special though, he can take on other front end horses and still keep going.

Both codes of racing, and to be fair you can split Flat Turf and AW races, need different analysis basically. So, three different challenges.

 

[Grasshopper]

Appreciate the reponses, reet and EC21. Ta.

 

[EC21]

The 3.35 Wolver has thrown a pace prospect up.
Street Kid ran in a better class, strongly run race over c/d latest, but had to cut across from his outside draw to take the early lead,and was subsequently take on by 2 others.As a consequence he had nothing left to give from when conservatively ridden Documenting passed him (check it out on ATR's sectional tools).
Down in class with a fairer draw, I considerhim a good bet at B365''s 13/2 (BOG). He's 8/1 in a place, ew first 3,if that's your bag.

I've looked at this Reet, on the ATR pace analysis the race shows as EVEN/SLOW and I am not seeing that pacewise it was that inconvienced. One give away apart from the pace analysis is the comment for MITROSONFIRE which says outpaced 2 out, which usually signifies a quickening rather than slowing of pace that would suggest it being hard to stay in front.

Is this more a draw disadvantage angle rather than pace disadvantage?

 

[EC21]

You're right Grassy, though I would mitigate by pointing out that RSA was run at a leisurely pace.

This is an advantage of knowing the pace over NH. If a horse usually wins at a shorter distance but then throws a good run at further, as Reet points out, it may have just had an easy pace to stay with over that further distance. If faced with a strong pace, or even pace, over that longer distance, it would probably check out over the last two fences/hurdles.

 

[EC21]

Not much AW stuff about during this time, but have spotted an odd one on 28 December at Newcastle. 3.55 race. MINHAAJ. This one is usually a sprinter, 5/6f horse, that is held up in it's races, but the last run was up with the pace in a 7f race where it looked a disadvantage to be at the front. ATR pace analysis shows a strong test. The first 5, apart from Minhaaj came from away from the pace and the rest of the field was beaten 4.5 lengths. On December 28th it is up in trip to 8f, so if the pace is strong, it may not get home. Will wait until I can see the make up pacewise of that race, if the pace looks to be strong then I doubt it gets home, but will look on the day it runs at the opposition pace make up.

 

[reet hard]

I've looked at this Reet, on the ATR pace analysis the race shows as EVEN/SLOW and I am not seeing that pacewise it was that inconvienced. One give away apart from the pace analysis is the comment for MITROSONFIRE which says outpaced 2 out, which usually signifies a quickening rather than slowing of pace that would suggest it being hard to stay in front.

Is this more a draw disadvantage angle rather than pace disadvantage?

Street Kid was disavantaged by the draw,but ATR's pace is plain wrong (not at all unusual). The race was run just 0.44 secs above standard and t/s show it to be the quickest race of the night. Even ATR's own sectionals show SK to be wilting in the final furlong whereas Documenting clearly wasn't.

 

[Tanlic]

Being a good judge of pace a jockey is essential but there aren't many of the top jocks who aren't.

Ruby was outstanding as were Barry and Davy.

Of the lesser lights I really feel comfortable if Daryl Jacobs Brian Hughes Tom Scudamore or Sam Twiston-Davies are riding what I've backed

But how can you fault Paul Townend, Nico, Aiden...hell the list goes on and on.

For that reason I don't get involved in analysing pace apart from races like the Supreme The Arkle and the Champion Hurdle but it ends there.

Racing and picking winners is complicated enough without studdying pace or trying to pick winners by using your own ratings

You have 2 eyes and 2 ears which are your best tools imo.

 

[EC21]

Being a good judge of pace a jockey is essential but there aren't many of the top jocks who aren't.

Ruby was outstanding as were Barry and Davy.

Of the lesser lights I really feel comfortable if Daryl Jacobs Brian Hughes Tom Scudamore or Sam Twiston-Davies are riding what I've backed

But how can you fault Paul Townend, Nico, Aiden...hell the list goes on and on.

For that reason I don't get involved in analysing pace apart from races like the Supreme The Arkle and the Champion Hurdle but it ends there.

Racing and picking winners is complicated enough without studdying pace or trying to pick winners by using your own ratings

You have 2 eyes and 2 ears which are your best tools imo.

For me, I have never ever used pace analysis for judging jockeys, it was purely for spotting horses in form. Sometimes obviously some jockeys fook up re pace, but it isn't something that bothers me much.

Why would you only look at three races if you think pace has relevance in those three only? Not getting that tbh. Surely pace is worth looking at in every race if you value it for those 3 races?

As you say, picking winners is complicated, so following that argument logically, analysing it will be complicated too surely?

I doubt many people just by eye will be able to judge something like pace. Many racing commentators who have watched thousands of races can't even do it.

 

[EC21]

Street Kid was disavantaged by the draw,but ATR's pace is plain wrong (not at all unusual). The race was run just 0.44 secs above standard and t/s show it to be the quickest race of the night. Even ATR's own sectionals show SK to be wilting in the final furlong whereas Documenting clearly wasn't.

I would have to shove that race through what I used to do to know to get a proper opinion for me. I have been lazy using ATR pace assessment. What I don't like though is if their pace analysis is proper is that a race that is run evenly early then slow later could suggest two possibilities. The race showed that they slowed later due to those in the race were unable to carry on at even pace, suggesting that, not that fit, horses took part in it, and the fittest slugged on to win. The other view is that they went too fast early and slowed down due to that. I haven't used ATR pace much so you are probably right that they aren't that reliable.

 

[EC21]

Being a good judge of pace a jockey is essential but there aren't many of the top jocks who aren't.

Ruby was outstanding as were Barry and Davy.

Of the lesser lights I really feel comfortable if Daryl Jacobs Brian Hughes Tom Scudamore or Sam Twiston-Davies are riding what I've backed

But how can you fault Paul Townend, Nico, Aiden...hell the list goes on and on.

For that reason I don't get involved in analysing pace apart from races like the Supreme The Arkle and the Champion Hurdle but it ends there.

Racing and picking winners is complicated enough without studdying pace or trying to pick winners by using your own ratings

You have 2 eyes and 2 ears which are your best tools imo.

I will ask you a question. Why do you think analysing races, either by pace, ratings etc is a bad thing and somehow inferior to using your eyes or ears?

If you watch a race and a horse wins by 20 lengths easing down. How do you know how good that performance was by eye?

 

[barjon]

For me, I wanted to know horses that showed they are fit by running against a pace bias and so then back them 3 times afterwards until they won, or then discard them. On the flat you have to be fit to run too fast early in a race and still be there at the finish, it is a fitness "tell". You also have to be fit to finish in a slow run race from the back of the field. That aspect sometimes just shows a speedy horse against less speedy oppo, but unfit horses won't do that usually. So to sum it up, you are spotting horses that "tell" you they are in good form without winning.

It isn't the same with how you guys look at NH races. The advantage you NH fans have is that you get to see horses for a long time, you weigh up their favoured conditions and I assume usually decide your bet on if they are favourably treated on that day. Pace is still important NH wise, but usually on the day. We are currently discussing Frodon on the other thread. I wouldn't want to back a front running horse against him, I would expect they would take themselves on. Frodon is a bit special though, he can take on other front end horses and still keep going.

Both codes of racing, and to be fair you can split Flat Turf and AW races, need different analysis basically. So, three different challenges.

I, too, spend my time looking for horses that are ready to rock, but I fear the “running against a pace bias” would have passed me by - it won’t in the future. Thx.