Judgement of pace

barjon said:
I, too, spend my time looking for horses that are ready to rock, but I fear the “running against a pace bias” would have passed me by - it won’t in the future. Thx.
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It is just another tool barjon. Many people won't ever let pace of a race ever bother them particularly, thats ok. Everyone has a different way of looking at races. I am always amazed at the knowledge of people on here re NH racing. Flat and NH races are so different to analyse as I said before. I read stuff on here about NH horse X and then try and see if I can see what they say is right in the actual form line as I see it. The difference being, they have watched the race, and usually I just look at words in a form line. I used to watch the lot, now I don't, so I feel a little out of the game tbh, so I resort to reading form rather than getting the feel of watching a race. Getting lazy now as I have said.:D.

I will just say this, if anyone wants to know about big NH races, this forum is a mine of knowledge.
 
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EC21 said:
I would have to shove that race through what I used to do to know to get a proper opinion for me. I have been lazy using ATR pace assessment. What I don't like though is if their pace analysis is proper is that a race that is run evenly early then slow later could suggest two possibilities. The race showed that they slowed later due to those in the race were unable to carry on at even pace, suggesting that, not that fit, horses took part in it, and the fittest slugged on to win. The other view is that they went too fast early and slowed down due to that. I haven't used ATR pace much so you are probably right that they aren't that reliable.
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That's the point,EC. They didn't slow down - Street Kid clearly did (as the sectionals plainly show),and ATR's analysis is way off beam - not unusual - probably because of the cranky way they interpret them.
As it stands Street Kid went too quick owing to circumstances on the day.
Tomorrow; down in class and better drawn, he could possibly make all, and should vindicate the above opinion.
 
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With 6/1 available and BOG Street Kid does look an ew bet for nothing, so I've gone in heavy, but I can't see that price lasting.
 
reet hard said:
With 6/1 available and BOG Street Kid does look an ew bet for nothing, so I've gone in heavy, but I can't see that price lasting.
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I’ve joined you reet, only small and mainly so I don’t forget to watch to see how your interesting analysis pans out. Hope it works out for you - my heavy bets on Boxing Day rarely come good.
 
EC21 said:
I will ask you a question. Why do you think analysing races, either by pace, ratings etc is a bad thing and somehow inferior to using your eyes or ears?

If you watch a race and a horse wins by 20 lengths easing down. How do you know how good that performance was by eye?
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Ratings I can't abide to be honest MOST of the time.

Over the years I have seen some crackers........Dream Ahead was rated higher than frankel and I asked Paul Struthers of TRF how on earth did they come up with that nonsense.

His reply left me dumfounded when he told it was based on him beateing some horse that had finished behind him 3rd or 4th and gone on to win a group 1 race.

On the day he was 128 Frankel 123 and ofcourse we know what happened.

Then there was Master Minded beating the grossly overrated VPU (At 2 miles) and given a rating Higher than both Kauto and Denman which was complete Nonsense.

The baaeed who I kept saying had beat nothing as Mishrif was a shadow of himself....that bugged me.

Of course they get some right and some wrong but I very seldom get involved.....beause the h'capper is a creature of habit......win a grade 2 up you go even if you beat a monkey.

Your other question I can honestly say I don't know. I know when Constitution Hill won the Supreme I had witnessed something very very special.

Anyone that was on TRF when Binocular won his first race at Kempton I said he would win a Champion Hurdle and when Sprinter Sacre jumped the 5th fence at Doncaster I said he was the knew Arkle.

How I knew they were oustanding performances I am damned if I know but when I see one I think is exceptional. like when I saw Galopin Des Champs win at Leopardstown last year I said he was a Gold Cup horse...despite it being over much shorter.

I am sure many others who just watch racing have had similar experiences..It doesn't make you special it's just a buzz you get that grabs your attention,

For me pace doesn't come into it good horse win off slow fast moderate or whatever pace. On everday average racing I don't have the patience or the desire to start analyzing pace.

Jockeys however ar only human and they very often get it wrong as do we all when it comes to racing.....I backed a forecast to day at 10/11 Constutution Hill and Epatante then lost what I won on Envoi Allen to be placed....sadly for me being placed last don't count:lol:
 
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Like all good ew bets Street Kid finishes 4th.:thumbsdown:
For mine, the wunderkid got the perfect start, but hung about too much for too kong. Clock in his head needs more work,imo.
 
I've put Positive (7.00W) up on another thread,and he definitely has the pace for this (and and a pilot capable of judgihg it). Ticks all the other boxes, and I see it as a solid bet.
Just taken 9/1 (888bet) and no surprise should it shorten up later.
 
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Nial Houlihan judged the 2m Kempton pace perfectly, whilst Nube Negra didn't get home over the 2m1f that Skelton took him around.
 
reet hard said:
I've put Positive (7.00W) up on another thread,and he definitely has the pace for this (and and a pilot capable of judgihg it). Ticks all the other boxes, and I see it as a solid bet.
Just taken 9/1 (888bet) and no surprise should it shorten up later.
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Won cosy, but sizeable R4.
 
reet hard said:
I've put Positive (7.00W) up on another thread,and he definitely has the pace for this (and and a pilot capable of judgihg it). Ticks all the other boxes, and I see it as a solid bet.
Just taken 9/1 (888bet) and no surprise should it shorten up later.
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Good call Reet, rule 4 or not.
 
Minhaaj was a non runner but have spotted another potential pace disadvantaged last time in Nine Elms in 4.00 Southwell tomorrow. Will have another look at it tomorrow.
 
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Army Of India 6.00S
Hit the front too soon in a strongly run c/d race latest.
Same again here but first time blinds could make the difference.
6/1 B365
 
reet hard said:
Army Of India 6.00S
Hit the front too soon in a strongly run c/d race latest.
Same again here but first time blinds could make the difference.
6/1 B365
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Have you noticed when you work out what you think the pace will be in a future race, how you don't always spot the first time headgears? Usually, not all, but they generally add to the pace as many newly headgered types tend to run from the front and make the pace even stronger. I usually forget to look at these types.
 
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Would miss often,were it not for the RP pundit mentioning it in their comments.
They didn't pick this one up, though
 
Me too, you only need a front runner and a first time headgear and pace is normally guaranteed.
 
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Aye,but sheepskins normally have a calming effect and Graham Lee, who rode him lto, was probably the one who suggested them.
 
Maxbet said:
Nial Houlihan judged the 2m Kempton pace perfectly, whilst Nube Negra didn't get home over the 2m1f that Skelton took him around.
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Maybe, but it was also the soft ground that did for him imo, and he took a wide course to avoid it.
Certainly very similar t/s for both races.
 
EC21 said:
Minhaaj was a non runner but have spotted another potential pace disadvantaged last time in Nine Elms in 4.00 Southwell tomorrow. Will have another look at it tomorrow.
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GL,EC.
See where your'e coming from and had a small ew, but he's copped a bad draw and may lead to his jock taking a pull.
 
2X c/d winner So Grateful ran a blinder from the coffin box, 6f at a good pace @ Wolver 2 ago, then didn't have the speed for a fast 5f lto.
Drawn 1 today, he should take this.
6/1 B365.
 
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EC21 said:
Minhaaj was a non runner but have spotted another potential pace disadvantaged last time in Nine Elms in 4.00 Southwell tomorrow. Will have another look at it tomorrow.
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Tough,EC.
1 out of the money from a crap draw.
Deffo one for the notebook,though
 
Visibility 5.30W showed plenty of pace when having a bad trip, from a bad draw, when finishing well in a 7f race here last month and went on to win a better c/d race 2 ago.
Ran too keen just 4 days later and had a small break since.
Poor draw today,but worth an ew pop at above above price, imo.
 
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Michael Appleby is brillliant at figuring a horse's best trip when they buy from other stables and, though it's buried deep, there are good reasons for thinking he may have done it again with Power Of State 5.15 N/c.
11/1 B365
 
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