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The 2025 Should Be Odds-On Thread

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
26,497
Well, we did manage to finish off 2024 with an easy winner albeit only marginally qualifying but a winner is a winner is a winner and it definitely won like an odds-on shot should.

I'm hoping to get the new annual thread off to an absolute flyer because I'm stunned to see 11/2 on offer about Langer Dan in the Relkeel Hurdle.

He's 11lbs top on unadjusted ORs and 10lbs clear on adjusted RPRs. I reckon he will be a contender for the Stayers' Hurdle if that's where they choose to go but, being a twice winner of the Coral Cup, this trip is well within his comfort zone.

I don't see how he loses, assuming he's trying.
 
I think he’s being priced up on the basis he doesn’t come good until spring. That’s certainly been the case the last few years when it’s all been about keeping his mark down for a Cheltenham handicap but his mark is surely too high now for that to be a realistic aim. Personally wouldn’t have him odds on but the current 7/1 tempts
 
Yes, I have never bought into the idea that he is a 'spring horse'. He's always been a Cheltenham plot horse going back to the 2021 Martin Pipe when only a ridiculously over-confident ride saw him beaten into second by a certain Galopin Des Champs.

I don't think there's anything for them to plot him up for at Cheltenham this year so they might as well crack on with him and pick up some prize money on the way to the Stayers' Hurdle.

I do believe if he's there to win then he should be odds on.
 
A very poor run from Langer Dan. I was hopeful when he got backed in to 9/2 but that dried up quickly
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well, we did manage to finish off 2024 with an easy winner albeit only marginally qualifying but a winner is a winner is a winner and it definitely won like an odds-on shot should.

I'm hoping to get the new annual thread off to an absolute flyer because I'm stunned to see 11/2 on offer about Langer Dan in the Relkeel Hurdle.

He's 11lbs top on unadjusted ORs and 10lbs clear on adjusted RPRs. I reckon he will be a contender for the Stayers' Hurdle if that's where they choose to go but, being a twice winner of the Coral Cup, this trip is well within his comfort zone.

I don't see how he loses, assuming he's trying.
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I've allowed myself to be sucked in again at 11/2.

I’m still reluctant to buy into the claim that he is a spring horse. He's a plot horse. As you say, it's when the money's on that he wins. For me, he’s been trained for the festival these last years but there’s no real need to train him for it now off this kind of mark. He ran well well for a long way last time before being eased home from before the final turn. This race is more valuable and not winning last time means he avoids another 4lbs in the weights for this. He’ll either win or be unplaced so I’m going for the win bet. He’d be odds on if you could be sure he’s trying.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've allowed myself to be sucked in again at 11/2.

I’m still reluctant to buy into the claim that he is a spring horse. He's a plot horse. As you say, it's when the money's on that he wins. For me, he’s been trained for the festival these last years but there’s no real need to train him for it now off this kind of mark. He ran well well for a long way last time before being eased home from before the final turn. This race is more valuable and not winning last time means he avoids another 4lbs in the weights for this. He’ll either win or be unplaced so I’m going for the win bet. He’d be odds on if you could be sure he’s trying.
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Not sure how this works but it's blue in a lot of places this evening and as short as 4/1. I got 11/2, the best price at teatime this evening, yet it's showing blue at B365 but on offer at 6/1 with them, which it wasn't earlier.

You have to wonder. Or at least I do.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've allowed myself to be sucked in again at 11/2.

I’m still reluctant to buy into the claim that he is a spring horse. He's a plot horse. As you say, it's when the money's on that he wins. For me, he’s been trained for the festival these last years but there’s no real need to train him for it now off this kind of mark. He ran well well for a long way last time before being eased home from before the final turn. This race is more valuable and not winning last time means he avoids another 4lbs in the weights for this. He’ll either win or be unplaced so I’m going for the win bet. He’d be odds on if you could be sure he’s trying.
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Your faith is admirable but perhaps misplaced given he’s drifted out to 8/1 with B365 this morning perhaps suggesting today’s not the day. Not sure what the target will be though
 
Right out to 14s and 16s in a place. Told its own story.

And post race the TV discussion is all about him and not the winner...
 
I feel I'm disgracing the thread already but, hey, it's only mid-January so there's plenty of time to recoup any deficit.

Windsor 3.05 - Ahoy Senor (5/1 taken) - I read the other day he's going to Aintree and it's already eight weeks since he last ran so it's easy to argue that he won't be ready but I reckon he can win this half-fit. He's 11lbs clear on adjusted ORs and 8lbs ahead on RPRs so it would be crazy for them not to be trying to win a race worth £165k getting weight from inferiors.
 
The pursuit of disgrace continues...

Tomorrow, Dublin Chase - El Fabiolo 5/1 - 9lbs clear of the odds-on fav on ORs, 6lbs on RPRs and 9lbs on my own figures so I'd argue the odds are the wrong way round. I'm assuming a lot of people believe Townend had the choice but if it is the case that Slevin gets to ride the double greens at Mullins's then it might just be the case that GW is the best of the rest.
 
Leo 2.25 - Meetingofthewaters 2/1 - When I first looked at this race on Thursday I thought I’d stumbled on to a nice longshot with Meetingofthewaters lurking at the foot of the handicap but it seems everyone has found it. It was an improving novice hurdler back in the day and it seems the handicapper has decided to totally ignore its subsequent progress over fences. The chances are it would be 26lbs higher if entered in a handicap hurdle in the UK. It doesn’t guarantee a win but it is potentially a complete blot.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The pursuit of disgrace continues...

Tomorrow, Dublin Chase - El Fabiolo 5/1 - 9lbs clear of the odds-on fav on ORs, 6lbs on RPRs and 9lbs on my own figures so I'd argue the odds are the wrong way round. I'm assuming a lot of people believe Townend had the choice but if it is the case that Slevin gets to ride the double greens at Mullins's then it might just be the case that GW is the best of the rest.
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It might not win but it's in to 9/4 tops so it seems a lot of people at least agree that the price was wrong to begin with.
 
Confidence tempered by the wide draw, he's a top drawer dirt horse and will need to get a nice position to win. I still think he will win but probably not a 'will win' now
 
I haven't got a strong view on the race, but if someone gave me a free bet on the contest I'd be having it on Forever Young, despite the wide draw.

I've spent 40 years plus in and around this game hearing and reading people saying "there is no reason why he/she shouldn't be effective on...." (insert dirt if it's a turf horse, turf if it's a dirt horse, Soft if it's a fast ground horse, Firm if it's a mudlark, a new trip, whatever) and more often than not the horse isn't as effective on it or at it.

Romantic Warrior "might" win, obviously, but it's a massive ask on a new surface.
 
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They've been trying to get him to jump and race prominent, which would be ideal if drawn kinder, but from 14 he's going to have to change tack and ride for luck. He's the best horse in the conditions and in his prime.
 
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