The 2025 Should Be Odds-On Thread

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
Messages
25,422
Well, we did manage to finish off 2024 with an easy winner albeit only marginally qualifying but a winner is a winner is a winner and it definitely won like an odds-on shot should.

I'm hoping to get the new annual thread off to an absolute flyer because I'm stunned to see 11/2 on offer about Langer Dan in the Relkeel Hurdle.

He's 11lbs top on unadjusted ORs and 10lbs clear on adjusted RPRs. I reckon he will be a contender for the Stayers' Hurdle if that's where they choose to go but, being a twice winner of the Coral Cup, this trip is well within his comfort zone.

I don't see how he loses, assuming he's trying.
 
I think he’s being priced up on the basis he doesn’t come good until spring. That’s certainly been the case the last few years when it’s all been about keeping his mark down for a Cheltenham handicap but his mark is surely too high now for that to be a realistic aim. Personally wouldn’t have him odds on but the current 7/1 tempts
 
Yes, I have never bought into the idea that he is a 'spring horse'. He's always been a Cheltenham plot horse going back to the 2021 Martin Pipe when only a ridiculously over-confident ride saw him beaten into second by a certain Galopin Des Champs.

I don't think there's anything for them to plot him up for at Cheltenham this year so they might as well crack on with him and pick up some prize money on the way to the Stayers' Hurdle.

I do believe if he's there to win then he should be odds on.
 
A very poor run from Langer Dan. I was hopeful when he got backed in to 9/2 but that dried up quickly
 
Desert Orchid said:
Well, we did manage to finish off 2024 with an easy winner albeit only marginally qualifying but a winner is a winner is a winner and it definitely won like an odds-on shot should.

I'm hoping to get the new annual thread off to an absolute flyer because I'm stunned to see 11/2 on offer about Langer Dan in the Relkeel Hurdle.

He's 11lbs top on unadjusted ORs and 10lbs clear on adjusted RPRs. I reckon he will be a contender for the Stayers' Hurdle if that's where they choose to go but, being a twice winner of the Coral Cup, this trip is well within his comfort zone.

I don't see how he loses, assuming he's trying.
Click to expand...

I've allowed myself to be sucked in again at 11/2.

I’m still reluctant to buy into the claim that he is a spring horse. He's a plot horse. As you say, it's when the money's on that he wins. For me, he’s been trained for the festival these last years but there’s no real need to train him for it now off this kind of mark. He ran well well for a long way last time before being eased home from before the final turn. This race is more valuable and not winning last time means he avoids another 4lbs in the weights for this. He’ll either win or be unplaced so I’m going for the win bet. He’d be odds on if you could be sure he’s trying.
 
Back
Top