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What wins the Cheltenham Festival handicaps?

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Kopeck De Mee is noted as being bought yesterday by JP McManus. His top RPR is 119 (Hurdles). RPRs for French racing tend to be very conservative and his French ratings has risen a fair bit in three runs to 68 which translates to 150.

I don't think the UK handicapper translates literally by a factor of 2.2 (lbs per kilo), more like 2 so I reckon KDM will have a handicap rating of about 136.

(Now with WPM.)
 
Ian_Davies said:
The already-shortening Kopeck De Mee may be of interest not least because of the more lenient way the BHA Handicapper traditionally converts French Handicap marks from kilograms to pounds compared to the Irish assessor.
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I'm not sure the Irish handicapper takes the French rating into account. I can't think of any ex-French running in Ireland off a conversion of even 2.
 
It is my understanding (happy to be corrected) that, as stated, the Irish assessor uses a harsher kilogrammes to pounds conversion.

It was cited as a reason why Ocastle Des Mottes was sent for the "Schweppes" last year as the Irish Handicapper had him on a higher mark than the BHA did when they were both rating him on his French form - apparently Willie Mullins was unaware of this anomaly until it was pointed out to him.
 
Jayhawk said:
I've decided to cover all my bets with Gericault Roque. I'm acutely aware of Remastered's credentials and it keeps bugging me that Tom Scu has opted for GR instead. It's the one runner that I could see me looking back at after it won and kicking myself for not backing it.
Gericault Roque ( David Pipe ) finished 3rd to Le Milos in the Coral Cup at Newbury here and then missed the following two years having got jarred up in the race. One run in January at Windsor wasn't bad and there's previous Festival form with a 2nd to Corach Rambler in the 2022 Ultima Chase. Holds entries ( off 131) in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase and the revised National Hunt Chase as still a novice. Same connections won the Ultima in successive years with Un Temps Pour Tout. Still only a nine-year-old despite the long absence.
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From the stable tour back in November:

He is coming back from injury, and he is still a novice chaser. He is a very good horse on his day and the long-term objective with him is the Grand National. We will target him for long distance chases, but he won’t be out until the New Year.

Still a novice chaser... long distance chases...

The NH Chase, now that it is a handicap? No chance of getting into the National but there's a few marathons before the end of the season. I think he's more chance of getting into the Kim Muir than the Ultima.
 
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Ian_Davies said:
It is my understanding (happy to be corrected) that, as stated, the Irish assessor uses a harsher kilogrammes to pounds conversion.

It was cited as a reason why Ocastle Des Mottes was sent for the "Schweppes" last year as the Irish Handicapper had him on a higher mark than the BHA did when they were both rating him on his French form - apparently Willie Mullins was unaware of this anomaly until it was pointed out to him.
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That's good info, Ian. It does ring a vague bell. ODM's French rating converts to 146 but he ran in the Schweppes off 133 (so a straight 2x factor), ran down the park three times over here and was off 130 at Punchestown after that. Has continued to run down the park and is now off 127. Could he be a plot for the M Pipe?
 
Kopeck De Mee's best NRNB odds are: 6/1 Coral Cup, 7/1 County, 6/1 Martin Pipe.

If he's a plot I'd say he's likely to start at shorter than 6/1 for whichever race he runs in.
 
Jayhawk said:
Djelo is 12/1 NRNB for the Ryanair which would be a good price if Fact To File and Banbridge ran in the Gold Cup and Il Est Francais went for the Champion Chase. Venetia Williams's horses have often won races with good prize money before the end of December and don't tend to do very well in the Cheltenham handicaps. Carrick Boy ( 50/1?) was one I missed out on and that must have been around 2012/2013. Chambard in the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir and L'Homme Presse in the Brown Advisory have been the only two winners since then.
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you are missing a trick here! In the last 4 festivals she has had a winner at 40/1 and places at 66, 40, 33 and 14/1 from jut 26 handicap runners and that is without extra places that would been available on the day, the trend towards softer ground festivals is definitely in her favour and if the mud is flying they are all worth a second look.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
you are missing a trick here! In the last 4 festivals she has had a winner at 40/1 and places at 66, 40, 33 and 14/1 from jut 26 handicap runners and that is without extra places that would been available on the day, the trend towards softer ground festivals is definitely in her favour and if the mud is flying they are all worth a second look.
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I may have missed out on Chambard when it won at 40/1, but definitely had a few £s on Gemirande e/w at 50/1 in last year's Grand Annual ( 5th of 16 with the extra place offer ).
Tanganyika is an interesting entry in the National Hunt Novices' Handicap Chase on the first day. Its handicap rating is 125 so it might get a run. Has heavy ground form and two recent wins at Carlisle and Market Rasen. Looks like it has been brought along gradually with bigger targets to come. If it misses out here it could be one for those three mile plus chases at Haydock next season.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
A question for you good people.

So entries came out yesterday.

If a horse were to win before the official weights are out, whenever that is, would their official mark go up in the handicap, or would they be given a penalty, thereby making it easier to get a run?

I only ask this, as my good doctor, TJ Eckleburg is only rated 125 at the moment, but he's entered on Saturday at Chepstow, where I'm hoping if he wins he could sneak in the handicap for the Grand Annual.

All pie in the sky thinking, you understand, but any help appreciated, and stranger things have happend?
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This is one cliff horse that's really doing me proud. I really enjoyed that just now.

The Grand Annual is a different day but why not if he makes the cut.
 
My early a/p bets.
After a conversation with Yorick and then reading Matt Brockelbank I did Whistlestoptour
40/1 for the nh chase and Kim muir and 28/1for the ultima.(Lucinda Russell)
I have followed Doddiethegreat for a long time now without success but I had to do it at 25/1 for the pertemps.
My main bet,rightly or wrong ,is Joyeux Machin 18/1 For the coral cup.
Skelton said it needs 3m.i think 2m 5f will suit admirably.
In the county hurdle if you go on trends then it's Willie Mullins or Dan Skelton who have won 9 of the last 10.
Skelton seems keen on Valgrand 12/1 but I couldn't resist a bet on another of his williethebuilder 33/1.
ive also done kabral du mathan 16/1.if Paul Nicholls is going to have a winner then it will probably be in a hcap and this one has some good form. all NRNB.

and in the non hcaps ive got
Constitution Hill 11/2
Lossiemouth 7/1. champion hurdle
ile les francaise 10/1 champion chase.doesnt look good at the moment.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
This is one cliff horse that's really doing me proud. I really enjoyed that just now.

The Grand Annual is a different day but why not if he makes the cut.
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Dr T J Eckleburg now up 5lbs rated 130.

I always tend to think the Grand Annual favours prominent runners for some reason, but he will be doing all his best work late on.

I await to see if he makes the cut.

He's in the form of his life that's for sure.
 
Snowdens overlooked Colonel Harry in the Plate, fell lto when 2nd fav to Springwell Bay in the betfair back in Jan. at HQ.

Springwell Bay (most likely top weight r154) is 10's for the plate and Colonel Harry is 25's an e/w punt for sure if keeps on his feet.

Runs off 145 which hits the 140-145 mark trend of 8 of 10 past runnings & who doesn’t like Snowdens Folly House.

Only downside, the Irish :ROFLMAO:
 
Anadin said:
Snowdens overlooked Colonel Harry in the Plate, fell lto when 2nd fav to Springwell Bay in the betfair back in Jan. at HQ.

Springwell Bay (most likely top weight r154) is 10's for the plate and Colonel Harry is 25's an e/w punt for sure if keeps on his feet.

Runs off 145 which hits the 140-145 mark trend of 8 of 10 past runnings & who doesn’t like Snowdens Folly House.

Only downside, the Irish :ROFLMAO:
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You'd have to hope the better handicapped Irish novices might go for the Jack Richards so I think the Plate is well worth taking a long look at. I've got Pinkerton who isn't a novice but I'm up for backing another couple as the price I have on the Meade horse is way overs as he's the second part of a rollover.
 
I want to know what idiot does the race planning at Cheltenham - running the Grand Annual straight after the Champion Chase strikes me as ridiculous.
 
Ardross said:
I want to know what idiot does the race planning at Cheltenham - running the Grand Annual straight after the Champion Chase strikes me as ridiculous.
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They want to run the main race each day as race 5 at 4pm rather than as race 4 at 3:30 in a bid to build up excitement through the afternoon. Doesn't bother me as I'm watching it at home.
I checked whether my memory of around thirty years ago was playing tricks, and it wasn't. In the mid 1990s Tuesday's card had the Ritz NH Handicap Chase and the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase as consecutive races.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Kopeck De Mee is noted as being bought yesterday by JP McManus. His top RPR is 119 (Hurdles). RPRs for French racing tend to be very conservative and his French ratings has risen a fair bit in three runs to 68 which translates to 150.

I don't think the UK handicapper translates literally by a factor of 2.2 (lbs per kilo), more like 2 so I reckon KDM will have a handicap rating of about 136.

(Now with WPM.)
Click to expand...

136 it is.
 
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