• REGISTER NOW!! Why? Because you can't do much without having been registered!

    At the moment you have limited access to view all discussions - and most importantly, you haven't joined our community. What are you waiting for? Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free so please, join Join Talking Horses here!

The 2025 Grand National

If it would of been trained for it all Year it wouldn't have won the Betfair chase therefore keeping him on a very lofty mark.
 
The Betfair Chase for me tore the guts out of the horse who hasn't raised a gallop since despite being fancied with everything in his favour in the Peter Marsh.
He is not MonMome Venetia isn't that clever to try and pull another fluke like that.
With Royale Pagaille who has everything possible against him

The weight the ground plus he has a rating/form no where near good enough to be winning even at his best.
But what do I know anyone who is crazy enough to be backing a horse who has everything against him ne my guest and throw your hard earned cash away
 
Desert Orchid said:
Mon Mome was beaten 99 lengths in its two runs immediately before winning the GN.

The following year it it was beaten 75L in two races, inc the GC, but was just moving into contention when it fell five out.

If RP runs in the GN it's because it's been trained for it all year.
Click to expand...
Mon Mome is a painful memory for me and I’ve seen him referenced a few times recently, to remind me of the pain. However, I did learn, or was reminded, of a couple of valuable lessons when he did win.

I’d backed only him and L’Ami (Mick Fitzgerald’s final ever ride, who only got as far as the 2nd fence) in the 2008 event. Before the 2008 race Mon Mome connections did say he had had a rushed preparation (he’d been off 340 days, followed by 3 quick runs) and they weren’t expecting too much. Although he was beaten quite a long way, he jumped beautifully a ran quite well to be 9th. I told people afterwards that he would win it next year. Unfortunately, I forgot that until reminded after the 2009 race.

When I looked at the 2009 race, I did consider Mon Mome on the basis of his back class (he was for instance a good 2nd in a good Welsh National as a 6 year old), but couldn’t understand why Aidan Coleman had chosen to ride Stan in the race. Stan was the first horse to rule out of the race as he was a 2m 4f horse and I thought he had no chance whatsoever.

Anyway, I learn’t:

1) Don’t get too hung up on jockey bookings - there can be numerous explanations as to why a particular pilot can end up on a horse and the jockey may not decide this.

2) If a horse has shown the ability in the past, there is usually a very good chance they can reproduce it when returned to their peak, ideally under the right conditions.

The latter point suggests Royale Pagaille is an interesting contender if taking part this year - and you don’t have to go back far for some very good form. Charlie Deutsch would also be a perfect partner in this race too.

I hadn’t actually considered him before for this year, but can’t see any harm in a little investment at 125/1 NRNB.

As an aside, I note that first prize for the GN was a few thousand more in 2009, than it will be this year. That can’t be right.
 
I initially raised the question whether he would run, as he was 125/1. If, as now seems likely, that he will run, I would expect him to be nearer 50/1 on the day. VW ran him in the GC, too, and she’s not the type to flog her horses. If he runs, she thinks he has a chance. That’ll do for me.
 
He is 66/1 NRNB not 125/1 that I can see. If you can afford to waste money instead of backing a horse with a chance good for You running horses like him is what gets the National a bad name as he struggles to keep up
Hopefully if he does run his jockey will pull him up before halfway
 
Tanlic said:
He is 66/1 NRNB not 125/1 that I can see. If you can afford to waste money instead of backing a horse with a chance good for You running horses like him is what gets the National a bad name as he struggles to keep up
Hopefully if he does run his jockey will pull him up before halfway
Click to expand...
I just backed him at 125/1 + boost, at William Hills. NRNB. So unless this small investment has moved the market, 125/1 is still available.

I don’t think he is that slow, it was only November that he beat Grey Dawning and Bravemansgame over a mile shorter trip - albeit on soft.

We’ll find out next Saturday for sure, but I don’t think current price is anywhere close to his real chance in the race.

It’s great we don’t all share the same opinion though.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
As an aside, I note that first prize for the GN was a few thousand more in 2009, than it will be this year. That can’t be right.
Click to expand...

That can't be right. The winner gets £500k now, the overall £1m pot didn't come in until a few years ago.

Edit - just checked. Yes, £507k to the winner back then. £500k this year but that will be a minimum. I'd thought the £1m was only going for three or four years.
 
Desert Orchid said:
That can't be right. The winner gets £500k now, the overall £1m pot didn't come in until a few years ago.

Edit - just checked. Yes, £507k to the winner back then. £500k this year but that will be a minimum. I'd thought the £1m was only going for three or four years.
Click to expand...
So did I, and thought the same as you, until I looked back.
 
Danny said:
I'd normally be the same I think Vanillier is fairly versatile where ground is concerned. Looks a different animal since the head gear has been applied. Obviously lost a lot of ground in the CC when taking the wrong course but was staying on hand over fist down the home straight. I think he's as rock solid as you'd get in a National providing he's in good order after Cheltenham. Price isn't great now as I'm late to the party as has been usual with everything else going on but he's still a fair bet.
Click to expand...
He actually worked his way back up to be sat just off the leaders. It's when they kicked on 3 out that he lost a lot of ground. He ploughed on past some treading treacle but not sure he was that unlucky. Clearly his wrong early move didn't help, but did it cause his loss of ground from 3 out?

That said, would be no surprise were he to run another good race!
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
So did I, and thought the same as you, until I looked back.
Click to expand...
One for Arthur won £561k in 2017. Since then £500k was the winning prize every year, with the exception of 2021, when it was £375k, presumably affected by Covid. Not sure what the winner of the 2020 Virtual Grand National got!
 
Frankel said:
He actually worked his way back up to be sat just off the leaders. It's when they kicked on 3 out that he lost a lot of ground. He ploughed on past some treading treacle but not sure he was that unlucky. Clearly his wrong early move didn't help, but did it cause his loss of ground from 3 out?

That said, would be no surprise were he to run another good race!
Click to expand...

I think he gets outpaced. Cross country races are run at a slow pace when they quickened up he got left for dead. I think if he'd of been able to dictate from the front he could of cranked it up steadily as he did at Punchestowns bank when he strung them out good and proper.

I think for his 2nd in the National against Corach Rambler he did something similar he certainly took his time to pick up. He was ridden fairly conservatively in that race probably as they didn't know how well he saw the trip out at that point. A more positive ride that day might have seen him go close. I'm hoping they make a bit more use of him this time around. I'd probably have prefered it softer than its likely to be and a bit more of a break between the cross country and this race I'd have been fairly confident had that been the case. I still prefer him to most, what ever the weather. Just hope that it's a proper race with a good gallop not like the farce last year where every thing is still in contention 2 out.
 
Danny said:
I think he gets outpaced. Cross country races are run at a slow pace when they quickened up he got left for dead. I think if he'd of been able to dictate from the front he could of cranked it up steadily as he did at Punchestowns bank when he strung them out good and proper.

I think for his 2nd in the National against Corach Rambler he did something similar he certainly took his time to pick up. He was ridden fairly conservatively in that race probably as they didn't know how well he saw the trip out at that point. A more positive ride that day might have seen him go close. I'm hoping they make a bit more use of him this time around. I'd probably have prefered it softer than its likely to be and a bit more of a break between the cross country and this race I'd have been fairly confident had that been the case. I still prefer him to most, what ever the weather. Just hope that it's a proper race with a good gallop not like the farce last year where every thing is still in contention 2 out.
Click to expand...
So who do you have filling the tricast? :p
 
For those who think Royale Pagaille only acts on soft, I’m reminded of “soft ground specialist” Many Clouds winning the 2015 GN at 20/1, on G-S. He was carrying 11-9.

The weights look incredibly condensed this year, and RP should be staying on right at the end.
 
Frankel said:
So who do you have filling the tricast? :p
Click to expand...

Not sure yet tbh. I've been away from punting for a couple of years I used to end up with quite a heavy investment on the national perhaps backing 4 or 5 plus a hefty whack at trifectas. I won't be doing that this year tbh the last couple of months have been taken up looking after my Dad and various other things so I haven't looked at anything in depth.

At a brief glance though I can see the obvious attraction of most the market leaders. So intense raffles looks obvious but he is still 11lb higher than his Irish win and he beat a 12yo Any Second now. If you take the Bobby Jo at face value then he obviously looks well handicapped but do you really want to take a race with multiple Mullins runners who are whatever the merits of the Bobby Jo certainly not being wound up fully for that ? He does look good I won't deny it but I wouldn't be carried away with him. Minella Cocooner was a fair way behind there but in the Whitbread last Spring had Nick rockett well behind and perhaps was better for a sounder surface than when behind Intense raffles in the Irish Nash.

Stumpstown has done nothing but improve but my take on that Cross country was that Vanillier was the one to take out of it.The way he stayed on at the end and after giving up his position to stop him dictating matters then I'd have him over Stumpy in this.

Iroko was a non trier at Cheltenham .Then it's a decent enough prep run behind Grey Dawning who in fairness beat him doing cartwheels and we're still unsure how good Grey Dawning is I thought he was a cert for the King George when he flopped. His run here behind Inothewayyourthinking last year reads well he's got everything going for him bar a bit of experience I'm assured his dosage profile says he's a stayer. The only worry for me would be his jumping although he jumps well in the main you could see his inexperience at a couple of the fences last time.

It was a bit of a farce of a race last year but I am Maximus won so easy I thought he'd be a Gold cup contender this year but he hasn't raised a leg up to yet it'd be no surprise to see him run a big race but returning horses of top weight face a tough task. You could even say Minella endo from last year travelled better than anything better off at the weights with Maximus and won't mind the better ground might even help him see it out at a massive price.

Hewick like Minella Cocooner is pretty certain to stay and and love the ground if there is any good left in it after they've watered. I saw a going stick reading of 4.0 on the National course to any normal reading of it that's heavy so we can guess can't we ? In this day and age it's a joke.

I know I'd mentioned Bravemans game on here with regards Nicholls saying he was being aimed at the National. I thought his run in the Betfair was decent on ground he hates. His run in the King George either pointed to him being finished or that he'd left his guts behind in the Haydock mud. The removal of the blinkers for Newbury said to me they didn't really want him to run well. I'm on his Betfair run he'd have a chance off this mark I just can't really see it though. Nicholls other 2 Three under through five was as brave as ball's last time and reminded me a bit of a Regal Encore type who might stay on for minor placings. Kandoo kid looked the most natural jumper of a fence you'd find when he won the Hennessy but that form is terrible ( victorino aside who wasn't suited by the way the race that day panned out that day). It's guess work as to wether he'd want further as it is with most of them.

I apologise for the state of the post as I'm at work on my break posting off the top of my head and from my phone. In short I haven't got a clue but I've got a couple of days off after Monday so hopefully I'll get chance to have a look and narrow it down. My investment on the race won't be as heavy as in normal years and I'll probably just stick with Vanillier as a single bet and have a decent blast at the trifecta if I can narrow it down a bit. I've already had a bit on him at 14's he is probably gonna go nearer 20s on the day with the popularity of Hewick and the Mcmanus lot so I'll end up having a bit more on if that's the case.

I have a feeling whatever happens though the race will go to one of Cromwells I just have a gut feeling it's written in the stars for him to win it this year as he's really emerging as a force to be reckoned with. I'll probably be on the wrongun though.
 
Re the first prize, the pot usually says 'added'. I've never been sure how that worked. Is it possibly down to the overall number of entries and finishers that determine final monies?
 
Len Madeiros said:
For those who think Royale Pagaille only acts on soft, I’m reminded of “soft ground specialist” Many Clouds winning the 2015 GN at 20/1, on G-S. He was carrying 11-9.

The weights look incredibly condensed this year, and RP should be staying on right at the end.
Click to expand...
Good point. Many Clouds won in a time under nine minutes which suggests that the going was good rather than the official good ( good to soft in places ). Royale Pagaille has reminded me a lot of Bristol De Mai who was another Haydock specialist in usually heavy ground. He tried the National three years ago, never figured, and was pulled up before the second last fence.
Venetia Williams's horses have been out of form for some time now apart from Tanganyika ( 2nd in the Midlands National ) who looks one for similar long-distance races next season on soft or heavy ground.
 
Looking back through Royale Pagaille's form, I don't think it has been trained for the race. Its win at Haydock blew its handicap mark. It was just edging down but winning that edged it back up.Had it blown out that day, the chances are it would have dropped four or five pounds and then its next runs would have got it down another seven at least with the handicapper working on the assumption that it was in serious decline.

I'm actually surprised that the handicapper has dropped it quite as far so quickly but connections must be kicking themselves because he's off 164 in the National and will be off 159 afterwards.

Now, a few more jogs round admiring the paintwork on the outside rails could see it in next year's race off 147 and then it would be interesting indeed...

In summary, on my figures it is handicapped to win an ordinary Saturday Class 2 handicap but the National ain't no ordinary Saturday Class 2 handicap. He has the class, if he runs, to get round safely just behind the placed horses but would need the test to really revitalise him to his very best ever form and hope the other top fancies don't take to it. On balance, I reckon if it does run it is to see if it likes the fences with next year in mind.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Burrows Saint won the Irish National as a 6yo and waited two years to run at Aintree where it looked like hacking up before folding like a house of cards after two out.

I think the stamina needed for Aintree is massively more than for Fairyhouse.
Click to expand...

I was convinced Burrows Saint was gonna win the National in 2021, but it looks as if the race almost finished him ...... sad to see he still going around and being comprehensively hammered in the Irish Pointing fields - he should have a comfortably armchair and his hooves up in front of the fire now.
 
I've had my first 2 bets ( nrnb ) on 2 horses, who imo are vastly overpriced.
Broadway Boy, who I think they've haven't tried a bit since the Hennessey + Hitman.
Hitman is a mental price for a horse of his ability. Yep he's 99% certain not to get the trip, but as we saw in the Champion hurdle, anything happen in NH racing.
80/1 + 150/1..
 
Robicheaux said:
I've had my first 2 bets ( nrnb ) on 2 horses, who imo are vastly overpriced.
Broadway Boy, who I think they've haven't tried a bit since the Hennessey + Hitman.
Hitman is a mental price for a horse of his ability. Yep he's 99% certain not to get the trip, but as we saw in the Champion hurdle, anything happen in NH racing.
80/1 + 150/1..
Click to expand...

I agree on both counts:

Broadway Boy has been aimed at the race.
Hitman won't stay the trip in a horsebox.
 
Re Venetia Williams, she also has Quick Wave in the race and there's an outside chance she'll sneak in off bottom weight (off 146) and she would have a serious chance on her best old form but she's obviously hard to keep sound.
 
Back
Top