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The 2025 Grand National

Frankel said:
A Cromwell tricast then!!
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He should have 4 in it as Yeah Man is probably going to get in. But I could think of worse shouts for the first 3. Mind you couldn't be totally shocked if the first 3 were made up of Jp runners either.

The National is like poker when you start out you think it's all luck then you learn a bit and you think it's easy and mostly skill, then you become an expert and realise yeah it's mostly luck after all 😀
 
Desert Orchid said:
Looking back through Royale Pagaille's form, I don't think it has been trained for the race. Its win at Haydock blew its handicap mark. It was just edging down but winning that edged it back up.Had it blown out that day, the chances are it would have dropped four or five pounds and then its next runs would have got it down another seven at least with the handicapper working on the assumption that it was in serious decline.

I'm actually surprised that the handicapper has dropped it quite as far so quickly but connections must be kicking themselves because he's off 164 in the National and will be off 159 afterwards.

Now, a few more jogs round admiring the paintwork on the outside rails could see it in next year's race off 147 and then it would be interesting indeed...

In summary, on my figures it is handicapped to win an ordinary Saturday Class 2 handicap but the National ain't no ordinary Saturday Class 2 handicap. He has the class, if he runs, to get round safely just behind the placed horses but would need the test to really revitalise him to his very best ever form and hope the other top fancies don't take to it. On balance, I reckon if it does run it is to see if it likes the fences with next year in mind.
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You may well be correct, but to balance this, Mon Mome blew his handicap mark by winning at the Cheltenham December meeting in 2008, going up 8 to the 148 he ran off at Aintree - his career high mark at the time. His rubbish runs between then and the Grand National would have got him back to 144 or less, but he had to run off 148 and won by a very easy 12 lengths. He was a 9 year old having his 35th race when winning the National, interestingly, Royale Pagaille has only run 30 times and is 11 - so he hasn’t many miles on the clock and could even improve with the extra trip. Venetia Williams is a brilliant trainer and can keep these older chasers going better than possibly anyone else. Maybe next year as a 12 year old is the plan - but that is a bit of a risk for a horse who must have been difficult to keep right, given he has run so sparingly. This has been a relatively busy season by his standards, and it may have him cherry ripe for a big run.

So I’d guess it is now or never. However, this may all be irrelevant if the ground is too fast and I see he weather is forecast is sunshine all the way until 4pm next Saturday. I wouldn’t think he’d be risked if going ends up Good.
 
Danny said:
He should have 4 in it as Yeah Man is probably going to get in. But I could think of worse shouts for the first 3. Mind you couldn't be totally shocked if the first 3 were made up of Jp runners either.

The National is like poker when you start out you think it's all luck then you learn a bit and you think it's easy and mostly skill, then you become an expert and realise yeah it's mostly luck after all 😀
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Think we have to throw Mullins in the mix aswell. Has a few with lively chances.
 
There is no problem having opinions on horses, but I don't think any one can be that sure they are correct. Ask yourself how much will I have to stake in order to win a £100 on Stumptown, I suspect with an ew bet. I have just backed Hitman at 180/1 £0.50 ew and I will make £108.00 should it win. Betting on horses is about value not just opinions.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I see Hitman's damsire is Martaline which is an influence for stamina but the other thing about Hitman is that he has less stomach than a duckbilled platypus.

And he's a bigger shiter than a muckspreader.
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Some might say Hitman, who habitually comes there cruising on the bit, trades very short in-running, then reliably contrives to curl up under pressure and get beat, is the biggest "bridle ponce" in training - I, however, couldn't possibly be so horrid! 😂
 
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Alex said:
There is no problem having opinions on horses, but I don't think any one can be that sure they are correct. Ask yourself how much will I have to stake in order to win a £100 on Stumptown, I suspect with an ew bet. I have just backed Hitman at 180/1 £0.50 ew and I will make £108.00 should it win. Betting on horses is about value not just opinions.
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You can't eat value.
 
Intense Raffles tends to jump to the right a bit. Might be a problem at the canal turn but an advantage at the last fence I guess.
 
Desert Orchid said:
True, but if I offered you 2/1 you choice heads or tails on the toss of a coin I'd be shocked if you didn't take it.
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Stumptown could end up being a Gold Cup winner. But at this moment in time I would rather risk £1.00 on a Graded 1 horse at 181/1, than £22.50 on a horse that has only raced in handicaps at 8/1, to achive the same amount of profit.
 
Desert Orchid said:
In that case does the sample size not become too small to draw definitive conclusions?
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It's not just that it's without context that means nothing anyway.

How many of the horses that took part were of those age groups. I.e if 90% of runners were in that age bracket then you'd expect most of the winners to come from that age group.

If you looked at the price range of the runners were the majority of the market leaders in that age group. Again if they were is it any surprise that they've won the last 9 runnings.

I'm never a fan of stats for anything other than useful pointers if used correctly and very,very few people use them correctly.

Each race has an individual set of circumstances. Each horse similar. The race will be decided on 2 main factors the best handicapped horse who's suited to this unique test and for all the changes it still is a unique test. You can be the best handicapped horse in the world. I've seen plenty of horses travel beautifully and jump for fun until 2 out and then fade completely out of contention. You can be as well handicapped as you like if you don't see the trip out it doesn't matter.

The majority of the runners haven't been this far you can look at things like dosage or breeding to guess if a horse will stay but those things can quite often be wrong as often as they are right. People tend to kid themselves that this is an easy race to solve as they have fond memories of backing some of the winners but in reality most people have more than one horse in it and some backed half the field catch a big priced winner but may only return 50% on top of there lay out or have break even bets.

As for the majority of horse racing and with the majority of punters there is a great use of smoke and mirrors and selective memories to make this game appear easier than it is and appear to be better punters than they are. The National will always be a tough race to solve and the best anybody even the mist educated professionals can manage is an educated guess and like the rest of the game try and find some perceived value.

My advice to anybody however you come to your selections don't be put off by others who act bold and throw things out as if they are fact or as if they are experts as most of us are educated guessers and I've got a long enough memory to remember some the more bold and brash punters online treating to give up the game every time they've had a bad spell.
 
Danny said:
It's not just that it's without context that means nothing anyway.

How many of the horses that took part were of those age groups. I.e if 90% of runners were in that age bracket then you'd expect most of the winners to come from that age group.

If you looked at the price range of the runners were the majority of the market leaders in that age group. Again if they were is it any surprise that they've won the last 9 runnings.

I'm never a fan of stats for anything other than useful pointers if used correctly and very,very few people use them correctly.

Each race has an individual set of circumstances. Each horse similar. The race will be decided on 2 main factors the best handicapped horse who's suited to this unique test and for all the changes it still is a unique test. You can be the best handicapped horse in the world. I've seen plenty of horses travel beautifully and jump for fun until 2 out and then fade completely out of contention. You can be as well handicapped as you like if you don't see the trip out it doesn't matter.

The majority of the runners haven't been this far you can look at things like dosage or breeding to guess if a horse will stay but those things can quite often be wrong as often as they are right. People tend to kid themselves that this is an easy race to solve as they have fond memories of backing some of the winners but in reality most people have more than one horse in it and some backed half the field catch a big priced winner but may only return 50% on top of there lay out or have break even bets.

As for the majority of horse racing and with the majority of punters there is a great use of smoke and mirrors and selective memories to make this game appear easier than it is and appear to be better punters than they are. The National will always be a tough race to solve and the best anybody even the mist educated professionals can manage is an educated guess and like the rest of the game try and find some perceived value.

My advice to anybody however you come to your selections don't be put off by others who act bold and throw things out as if they are fact or as if they are experts as most of us are educated guessers and I've got a long enough memory to remember some the more bold and brash punters online treating to give up the game every time they've had a bad spell.
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I could not agree more, I have now backed 11 horses with an outlay of £37 + £15 in Free Bets = £52, and I probably will still not find the winner 😉.
 
I think for a while, that the GN was an “easier” puzzle to solve. Up until around 2005, any horse carrying under 11st, had run within the last 42 days, and had finished no lower than fifth in its last race found itself on my shortlist.

I did find a good few winners and places, but then meddling Phil Smith set the handicap to attract a better class of horse. And he did a great job, too.

It’s a much harder puzzle to solve these days, because the “trends” keep changing.
 
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