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The 2025 Royal Ascot Tuesday Thread

Frankel said:
Yup time will tell.

I'm assuming the Marble Hill is the best form on offer!
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Would seem on the face of it. Warsaw the classic coolmore so called second string who does nothing at home then comes alive on the track. Gstaad a good horse but getting vibes of war command who bolted up at a big price a few years ago.
 
Coach miguel said:
Would seem on the face of it. Warsaw the classic coolmore so called second string who does nothing at home then comes alive on the track. Gstaad a good horse but getting vibes of war command who bolted up at a big price a few years ago.
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War Command. That brings back memories. I was on him! Pretty sure he was actually 3rd string.
 
Was watching the French guineas again and he made up so much ground on jonquil in just a few seconds. If it gets tactical I'm on Ryan to pinch it.
 
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My bleary eyed study today has resulted in the following analysis:

2.30 Too hard - so small ew Carl Spackler 20/1
3.05 Guessing game - Andab, plus small ew Ballistic Missile my guesses.
3.40 Jasour. Saves his best for Ascot, 3rd in Commonwealth Cup last year. I liked his comeback run this season. Slow away and pulled hard, before making up lot of ground easily and too quickly, then faded late on. Think tomorrow may suit, drawn near front runners may help him settle better and type Clive Cox often does well with here. Was 33/1 earlier, but unfortunately Pricewise mentioned him, with some of same reasoning earlier.
4.20 Must be Field of Gold - no bet for me though.
5.00 Align the Stars. Really interested in this one. I think he is still 40/1. Hasn't run over this far before and there maybe a question on the trip for him. However, Trainer comments and actions suggest he may well improve for it. 3 2yo runs all over more than a mile. Was talked of as a Leger horse before bombing out in Lonsdale Cup as a 3yo. He is a very big horse (at least 17h) and I'd expect him to improve over time. Won £52k Handicap over 1m 6f (at Goodwood) last year off same mark as a 3yo - this course should suit him better. I did a little comparison of his runs against how Subjectivist was campaigned by same team, and though he is obviously not as good as Subjectivist, he was given stamina tests quicker than him and wasn't that far behind him on RPR's at comparable stages of their careers. Big difference was that Subjectivist never ran bad races and Align the Stars has run a couple. Subjectivist peaked when winning Gold Cup on his 17th run. Align the Stars has his 16th run tomorrow (obviously same CD) and I'm hoping, he is on a similar trajectory. Can afford to risk a few pounds to find out at this price. Also 5lb better off with Divine Comedy (16/1) for less than a length on return this season - albeit Kaiya Fraser rode Divine Comedy without his claim. Align the Stars should have more improvement though.
5.35 Too hard for me, but tentatively with Sons and Lovers (3rd time lucky as I have backed him on last two losing efforts).
6.10 Aeronautic looks like he could have been lined up for this and could be a cut above the opposition. He has only run 5 times, but to a good level already. Holds an entry for Group 2 Curragh Cup next month. Off 9 months before his return over an inadequate 10f, he looks very interesting at a big 14/1. Real Dream is also interesting. Ex Stoute horse, now with Ian Williams. Ran 11 times for Stoute always wearing a tongue tie. Dispensed with in 2 runs for Ian Williams (first of these was a good effort, shocker in second run) but back on tomorrow. Williams will probably pick up a decent prize with him at some point - 28/1 for this. Champagne Prince could also run well as I see know obvious reason for thinking he isn't as good on turf as all weather.

Anyway, enough of my ramblings, I hope you all enjoy the Racing this week and find plenty of winners - especially if you’re on the same horses as me!
 
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5.00 THE ASCOT STAKES (CLASS 2) (Heritage Handicap) (GBBPLUS RACE)

One final thing. Win, lose or draw it's always worth noting that if any of the runners from this race turn up again later in the week for the Queen Alexandra Stakes (final race on Saturday) then they deserve the utmost respect. In truth, not many try it these days but, since 1998, of the 17 to have attempted the double four have won, including two of the three Ascot Stakes winners that turned out quickly, and another four made the frame (at odds of up to 20/1). That's a place percentage of 47% and backing them all showed a Level Stakes Win Profit of +13.25pts thanks to winners at 11/4, 11/2, 6/1 and 12/1.
 
Horses declared to run tomorrow (Tuesday) that also hold an engagement in the Queen Alexandra....

Liari (5.00)
Nurburgring (5.00)
Poniros (5.00)
Reaching High (5.00)
Comfort Zone (5.00)
San Salvador (5.00)

Charlus (6.10)
Samui (6.10)
 
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Slim said:
I personally wouldn’t back either. They both have similar profiles, albeit Warsaw looks bred to improve at three. Gstaad just looks a sprinter. If you read the quotes after both horses won their maidens, they’re dripping with admissions that they were doing nothing at home. They’re priced on the names on the card next to them and the colours, and not much else.
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What quotes on Gstaad gave that impression, have checked on RP and RTV and cant find anything, wheresas the following is very strong imo;

"I don't think it was too hard for Ryan [Moore] to pick between the two. He's on Gstaad and he's a colt we've liked for a long time. We thought he might be an Ascot juvenile all along, so that's why we ran him that day. We think he's very smart. Warsaw only won ten days ago at Navan and we haven't done much with him since. He's a nice colt too"
 
SJP
Convinced Field Of Gold was flattered in the Irish Guineas by the uneven pace.
Doubt Coolmore will allow that luxury today,and Ryan will be waiting o pounce on Henri Mattise.
 
Postmodern - 3:05 - has got to step up, but it was a very impressive debut. Just in the lead inside the last furlong Spencer said “go” and before you knew it he was five lengths ahead.
 
I'm quoting the well used Ballydoyle jockey Chris Hayes. I'm sure he's the first jockey they would put up on an Ascot horse .

"QUOTES: He was a little bit babyish going down but GSTAAD was a pro in the race. When Wayne (Lordan) kicked he got a bit disorganised but from the furlong pole I always thought I was going to get there. I'll think he'll sharpen up for it, he'll get another furlong - Chris Hayes, jockey, speaking to Racing TV"
 
Even though it's odds on fav, an interesting negative for Field Of Gold, since 2000, 20 runners have gone from the Newmarket Craven Flat Stakes 1m Group3 in April to the following Ascot St James Palace Flat Stakes and not one of them has won and that includes 9 winners of the Craven, which Field of Gold won. Plus only 4 have placed and the last time was in 2013
 
pawras said:
Even though it's odds on fav, an interesting negative for Field Of Gold, since 2000, 20 runners have gone from the Newmarket Craven Flat Stakes 1m Group3 in April to the following Ascot St James Palace Flat Stakes and not one of them has won and that includes 9 winners of the Craven, which Field of Gold won. Plus only 4 have placed and the last time was in 2013
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I'm not one for stats but that's a very strange one. Field Of Gold is favourite for the Eclipse. I think there is no chance he'll run there. They'll wait for York.
 
Slim said:
I'm not one for stats but that's a very strange one. Field Of Gold is favourite for the Eclipse. I think there is no chance he'll run there. They'll wait for York.
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conversely it won the Irish 2000 Guineas and 20 winners of that have gone on to the following Ascot St James Palace and 10 have won, so pays ye money takes ye choice.
I don't have time to look at how many times runners have come from both the Irish 2000 Guineas and the Craven
 
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pawras said:
conversely it won the Irish 2000 Guineas and 20 winners of that have gone on to the Ascot St James Palace and 10 have won, so pays ye money takes ye choice.
I don't have time to look at how many times runners have come from both the Irish 2000 Guineas and the Craven
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It’s a good stat, I just don’t put much stock in them. If I were thinking of backing him at odds-on, the fast ground would scare the life out of me.
 
Slim said:
It’s a good stat, I just don’t put much stock in them. If I were thinking of backing him at odds-on, the fast ground would scare the life out of me.
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I take the obv route of the bigger and stronger the stats get the more I'll take notice, but they can always be broken like any rule of thumb/trend

Out of Field of Gold, Ruling Court and Henry Matisse
Field of Gold managed 3rd at Donc 28/6/24 in a novice stakes on GF
Ruling Court managed 3rd at York 21/08/24 in a G3 on GF
Henry Matisse won at Del Mar 2/11/24 in a G1 on firm
 
pawras said:
I take the obv route of the bigger and stronger the stats get the more I'll take notice, but they can always be broken like any rule of thumb/trend

Out of Field of Gold, Ruling Court and Henry Matisse
Field of Gold managed 3rd at Donc 28/6/24 in a novice stakes on GF
Ruling Court managed 3rd at York 21/08/24 in a G3 on GF
Henry Matisse won at Del Mar 2/11/24 in a G1 on firm
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This is where you need nuance and not stats. Ask yourself does Field Of Gold want fast ground.
 
I reckon they'll water any firm ground out of the course, at least ahead of today, plus the first 5f of the SJP course is on the round track which wouldn't be as fast anyway as the rest of the course, plus it's uphill so I can't see it being too much of an issue, at least today, and it did beat standard time at the Curragh so the ground must have been on the fast side that day.

For me it's definitely the percentage call but whether it is betting material might be another matter.
 

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