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The 2025 Longshot Thread

5.00 - Fifth Column 22/1 - I wouldn't be surprised if this is the better fancied of the Godolphin pair. It wears the white cap but Buick takes the mount (Murphy is wearing the blue cap on the SbS runner which is shorter in the betting but I'm ignoring that) and the Gosdens are electric this week.

I've also taken the ew double with Masai Moon in the KGV, pays 344/1 at the odds I got. The place portion alone pays better than 20/1.
 
Ramazan, who I mentioned here yesterday, is on the drift (as he was last time out), so today may not be his day - again. Before I saw that, I had a last minute change of mind with my Competition entry and stuck in Array, who is 50/1. He had very good 2yo form (won the Mill Reef), missed his 3yo season. His 2 runs this season have been excellent, particularly the performance at Haydock when on level weights against 4 horses rated 6 to 9lbs higher than him. I do think that form may be a bit misleading as the race was run quite slowly and only 5 runners, but I thought worth a punt at these odds.
 
5.35 - Sea Scout 66/1, 4 places - the Dante form has taken a pounding but I do think we can put a line through its Derby run and it still holds a couple of G1 entries. ORs can be meaningless in a race like this but it is only 2lbs behind 4/1 shot High Stock and has only 6lbs (three lengths give or take) to find on the market leaders on RPRs.

Edit - I took 66s to three places the other day. I've gone in again at 80s to four places. Not with any confidence but they aren't expensive bets at those odds.
 
6.10 - Northern Express 22/1, 6 places - jt-top on my figures (with English Oak's rating for winning last year). Now a pound lower than when winning the even more valuable International Hcap last year and that might well be the main target as he's certainly been looked after in three runs this season. Still, I feel I have to take the chance here.
 
Desert Orchid said:
6.10 - Northern Express 22/1, 6 places - jt-top on my figures (with English Oak's rating for winning last year). Now a pound lower than when winning the even more valuable International Hcap last year and that might well be the main target as he's certainly been looked after in three runs this season. Still, I feel I have to take the chance here.
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You beat me to it by a few minutes. Apart from the win over course and distance last July Northern Express has two 4th places in that race, and a 3rd and 5th in the Buckingham Palace Stakes. He'd be half the price if he were trained by a top Newmarket trainer.
 
Cathedral in the Coronation tomorrow. Fully entitled to come on from her reappearance at Lingfield, where the form has worked out well.
French filly maybe vulnerable on the ground + the rest appear to be much of a muchness.
66s can be got.
 
Outsider said:
Ew patent
The curser 40/1
Hawksbill 500. 33/1
Yorkshire 610 50/1
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I noted Yorkshire the other night when I did the race. It was 66s then but I decided to hold off for a drift than forgot about it. It's about 20s now so I'll probably just let it go.

Instead I've also gone for one I also noted and didn't back and it has drifted: Aafoor 200/1, 5 places. I have a tentative rating for it that would put it in my top seven so I just want it onside. It wasn't beaten far in a £½m handicap in Saudi after which they brought it over to run in the Brigadier Gerard with a mark of 107 so it must be decent. It jogged round out the back that day and got a couple of pounds off so I've invested them here.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Gold Cup...

I do hope Trawlerman wins cos I like Appleby and Buick as professionals and how they come across in interviews but I can't bring myself to back it so I've taken three longshots against the field and hoping I can end up in front on the race.

Coltrane 50/1 - historically has had the same OR as Trawlerman
Dubai Future 28/1 - only 2lbs behind on ORs
Yasin 80/1 - has a few more pounds to find but I have him and Illinois as the only improvers in the race and Yashin just might be a late improver. Maybe he'll make me a good save...
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Another place return to cover those three bets with plenty to spare and glad to see Trawlerman do it in style. I ended up enjoying the race.
 
When you back Supido ew at 150-1 and he sneaks 5th but you check your account on Bet365 (i normally do Betfair but odds have been rubbish) and they are first 4...w*nkers! And I switched from Arabian Story too.
Just looking again - BF only pay 4 places - for 30 runner hcp? When do they switch to 5 or 6 places? I've been paid before on BF - didn't think to check before race.
I've just checked both sites again for the last race and similar in that its a handicap (7f as opposed to 1m) with one less runner - are we supposed to just guess?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
5.00 - Fifth Column 22/1 - I wouldn't be surprised if this is the better fancied of the Godolphin pair. It wears the white cap but Buick takes the mount (Murphy is wearing the blue cap on the SbS runner which is shorter in the betting but I'm ignoring that) and the Gosdens are electric this week.
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'Won' the race on the wrong side :(
 
jinnyj said:
When you back Supido ew at 150-1 and he sneaks 5th but you check your account on Bet365 (i normally do Betfair but odds have been rubbish) and they are first 4...w*nkers! And I switched from Arabian Story too.
Just looking again - BF only pay 4 places - for 30 runner hcp? When do they switch to 5 or 6 places? I've been paid before on BF - didn't think to check before race.
I've just checked both sites again for the last race and similar in that its a handicap (7f as opposed to 1m) with one less runner - are we supposed to just guess?
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This is the race where the bookies only pay 4 places and make a big donation of extra profits to charity. I feel your pain as I also backed Supido at massive prices. To make matters worse Ed Chamberlain kept talking about extra places being paid until eventually advised about the charity aspect (luckily I already knew).

I think every year they’ve done this I have backed the 5th! Though I usually have about 3 goes at it.
 
Thanks for that - I didn't realise and couldn't work it out. It's probably the only time I pick a 150-1 horse that comes in. I will stop stomping around now! Trinity came in for me so I'm happy again.
 
Wokingham - Noble Truth 50/1, 6 places - when with Godolphin and Appleby this one made all in the Jersey when rated 112. He obviously had issues after that as he missed the rest of the season and only ran once early the following season in Meydan before being moved on to O'Meara for whom he missed an entire season and then disappointed twice early this season before being sold on again to John McConnell who has an excellent record with his raids in this country over the jumps. I'm just curious as to why he would choose to bring such a disappointing type over here for such a big race on his stable debut. If it's because the horse has suddenly responded to the Irish air and grass and is somewhere back to his old self then he has to be a bet off just 97. It's small risk for high reward stuff. If it's just a social runner then I accept the bet is donald-ducked.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wokingham - Noble Truth 50/1, 6 places - when with Godolphin and Appleby this one made all in the Jersey when rated 112. He obviously had issues after that as he missed the rest of the season and only ran once early the following season in Meydan before being moved on to O'Meara for whom he missed an entire season and then disappointed twice early this season before being sold on again to John McConnell who has an excellent record with his raids in this country over the jumps. I'm just curious as to why he would choose to bring such a disappointing type over here for such a big race on his stable debut. If it's because the horse has suddenly responded to the Irish air and grass and is somewhere back to his old self then he has to be a bet off just 97. It's small risk for high reward stuff. If it's just a social runner then I accept the bet is donald-ducked.
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I was thinking the same thing but I found myself put off by the low price they paid for him, which gave me the impression that his talent had gone. Would love to be disabused of this notion, anyone?
 
2.30 - Balantina 20/1, 4 pl - I was lucky enough to get 3/1 about the favourite on Wednesday afternoon but I'd always want some kind of back-up so I've gone for this as the longest priced of what appear to be the main dangers on RPRs (I very rarely do juvenile ratings this early in the season) and the yard won this in 2023. Marquand is a plus for me.
 
3.05 - I have Shadow Of Light at 9/4 in a double with Trawlerman so I'm hoping the Appleby horses are running their races but back-up is also necessary here and I've gone for two longshots:

Sky Majesty 28/1, 5 pl - Haggas has held on to this for two months and the yard is in brilliant form.
Rayevka 25/1, 5 places - Probably overpriced because it is French but as far as I can see it has been supplemented so must be highly regarded.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Friday, 3.40 - Auld Toon Loon 20/1, 5 pl - very unlucky at Chester last time and should relish the step up in trip. Shouldn't have to come too wide from stall 4.
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It was after I posted this I saw Kevin Blake's draw graphic and it would seem a single-figure one is a negative. For whatever reason, the horse has drifted so I've gone in again at 40/1, 5 places. If I'm gonna get fvckt I met as well get fvckt in style.

Also, I've taken Max Mayhem 150/1, 5 places. It's jt-second-top on my figures on its best form and they've talked Barzalona into taking the ride. Stall 19 might help.
 
4.20 - two longshots to back up the main bet:

Cercene 40/1 - second-top on my bare figures
Duty First 80/1 - third-top and wears first-time cheekpieces so maybe they feel she's been dossing
 

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