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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Jayhawk said:
Pocklington - rated 96 - is another Geoff Oldroyd horse in the same ownership. His last run was over five and a half furlongs at the Ebor meeting when finishing 10th of 22 ( 25/1) when the first five all raced on the far side of the track. I've been keeping an eye out for him ever since and at least I haven't missed a winner ( hopefully ).
" Raced near side, raced in last, slightly hampered over 1f out, ran on well inside final furlong, nearest finish, eyecatcher, 3rd of 11 in group. "

His race prior to York was 10th of 14 ( 40/1 ) in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, beaten a couple of places by Starlust, the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint winner.
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Pocklington has been declared to run in the 1:40 race on Saturday at Newcastle which is a six furlong handicap for 3yo+ rated 0 - 105. He's down two pounds from the run at York ten months ago and is currently around 6/1 in a field of fourteen. He was also entered for the Group 3 Chipchase.
 
Jayhawk said:
Pocklington has been declared to run in the 1:40 race on Saturday at Newcastle which is a six furlong handicap for 3yo+ rated 0 - 105. He's down two pounds from the run at York ten months ago and is currently around 6/1 in a field of fourteen. He was also entered for the Group 3 Chipchase.
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I got 15/2 at teatime this evening.
 
Saturday, York 2.25 - Nostrum 25/1 - I suspect Lake Forest will win but have taken 25/1 Nostrum because I think it is as good as anything else in the field. Whether it is ready first time up I don’t know but if the market speaks for it then I’d be hopeful of a return.
 
Saturday, Newcastle 1.40 (Pocklington's race) - Never Just A Dream 40/1, 4 pl - has its first run for the excellent Alice Haynes and since being gelded over the winter. I'm not sure how long it's been in the new yard - I don't believe the official dates - but its last run was in the Chipchase at this meeting last season. Off 98 now, if it was ever worth its former rating of 104 it is entitled to be in the mix.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, Newcastle 1.40 (Pocklington's race) - Never Just A Dream 40/1, 4 pl - has its first run for the excellent Alice Haynes and since being gelded over the winter. I'm not sure how long it's been in the new yard - I don't believe the official dates - but its last run was in the Chipchase at this meeting last season. Off 98 now, if it was ever worth its former rating of 104 it is entitled to be in the mix.
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He earned that rating here and has run well in all 3 appearances at the track. 3 of his top 4 RPR’s here. I recall listening to Alice talking about getting first time out winners with horses inherited from other trainers (I think it was Nick Luck’s Sunday show on Racing TV), so it may be the plan. The negative is that he hasn’t run since the Chipchase last year - and that was a decent effort. 40/1 is quite tempting and I agree, she is an excellent trainer.
 
If you are going to have a "cliff" horse, it may as well carry an appropriate moniker. So I I am going to mention a horse I will be backing until Kingdom Come. Kingdom Come is out again in the 3.45 at Newcastle with Saffie Osborne onboard.

Although he doesn't seem unsuited to turf, he hasn't won on that surface, only managing one top 3 finish in 10 goes, compared with 9 in 12 on the AW. He is back on the AW tomorrow after 3 unsuccessful attempts on turf. He recorded his best ever RPR when narrowly pipped by a rival tomorrow in Talis Evolvere (KC is 2lb better off now) here in March 2024. Neither Clive Cox or Saffie Osborne have been having the best of seasons, but both have picked up in the last couple of weeks. Saffie is 8 from 39 for Clive (+£26.25) and he is 5 from 19 at Newcastle (+£15.25).

At 33/1 (I've backed at longer odds with a Coral Super Booster), I think he is worth another go tomorrow.
 
Damascus Steel 5.30 Newcastle tomorrow is interesting. Bet365 put him up at 33/1, now cut to 28/1. I can't bet with them and he is best price 14/1 elsewhere, though not all bookies have put prices up yet. His last win was here last October (off 8lb higher) and he is reunited with PJ McDonald for the first time since. He is Ed Dunlop's only runner at the meeting on Saturday (though he has also sent one up the road, from Newmarket, to Doncaster in the Evening too).
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Damascus Steel 5.30 Newcastle tomorrow is interesting. Bet365 put him up at 33/1, now cut to 28/1. I can't bet with them and he is best price 14/1 elsewhere, though not all bookies have put prices up yet. His last win was here last October (off 8lb higher) and he is reunited with PJ McDonald for the first time since. He is Ed Dunlop's only runner at the meeting on Saturday (though he has also sent one up the road, from Newmarket, to Doncaster in the Evening too).
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Blimey! Bet365 are now best price 5/1, as short as 3/1 elsewhere. Think they may have made a mistake with the first price.
 
Mr Whatoxo said:
Blimey! Bet365 are now best price 5/1, as short as 3/1 elsewhere. Think they may have made a mistake with the first price.
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Do you reckon someone jittered on the 3 key, and some of the others followed reluctantly with 14's? It'll be interesting if they claim it was an error, even though they then moved to 28's. If it had been me, I'd have been waiting for the others to drift and ended up staring at myself in the bathroom mirror, wondering what I'd done to deserve that kind of punishment. Hope you got on at double figures.
 
Dingo Bingo said:
Do you reckon someone jittered on the 3 key, and some of the others followed reluctantly with 14's? It'll be interesting if they claim it was an error, even though they then moved to 28's. If it had been me, I'd have been waiting for the others to drift and ended up staring at myself in the bathroom mirror, wondering what I'd done to deserve that kind of punishment. Hope you got on at double figures.
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I don’t imagine it takes much to move the market for a race like this in the early stages and it may be adjusting again now. Bet365 now 6/1 and generally 5’s elsewhere. Wouldn’t surprise me if it is nearer 10’s at the off now. Initial price just looked so big relative to its chance.

I have got 15/1, not a big bet. I suppose nipping in for these types of things at 33/1 too often is what gets you restricted - and I think that’s probably why I got restricted by them.
 
Northumberland Plate

Just looking through my figures as posted on the race thread, I noticed Alrazeen at long odds (50/1) despite sitting not far off the top so I've taken that to five places. Fentiman is one of Timeform's 'Rising Star' jockeys so might be worth a chunk of his 5lbs claim which would bring Alrazeen nearer the top. No great expectations (but it might be a Dickens of a price...)
 
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I went along to Gosforth Park last night for my 40th birthday which was nice, though the racing today looks a lot higher calibre.

I've backed Zimmerman (2.40) once or twice and felt he wasn't putting it all in for whatever reason, so I find it interesting Tim Easterby, who is admittedly my bogie trainer, sticks a first time tongue tie and blinkers on today. A near- enough two month break since its last run might have helped. I've a feeling this might out run the odds.
 
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