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Irish Derby 2025

Slim said:
3.72 faster than standard. Excuse my language but f%*& me. The winner must be very very good.
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It was a bunch finish in behind. Usually not a good sign.

Lambourn may well be worth a mark-up but but he's not beaten Lazy Griff by more than ORs entitled him to and look how low the ratings of the others were. He's a good winner of a poor race, in my opinion.


Horse​
OR​
Lambourn​
120 ​
Lazy Griff​
114 ​
Green Impact​
112 ​
Tennessee Stud​
112 ​
Pride Of Arras​
112 ​
Puppet Master​
105 ​
Sir Dinadan​
102 ​
Thrice​
102 ​
Shackleton​
101 ​
Serious Contender​
101 ​
 
Slim said:
No. You're just wrong here. Lambourn has gone flat out and annihilated them.
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I think Moore has ridden the horse to its strengths relative to the opposition. The RaceIQ data shows it wasn't the fastest horse in the race but he's got it home first.

The very fast overall time is down to favourable conditions, as is often the case.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I think Moore has ridden the horse to its strengths relative to the opposition. The RaceIQ data shows it wasn't the fastest horse in the race but he's got it home first.

The very fast overall time is down to favourable conditions, as is often the case.
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f%*& me. Can you explain this to me because it sounds like complete bollocks.
 
The finishing order:

1751213596922.pngLeaving aside the RaceIQ data for now, this is how they finished and how Lambourn's rating works out via the next seven beaten horses:

Horse / OR / Lambourn

Serious Contender / 101 / Lambourn 102
Lazy Griff / 114 / Lambourn 118.5
Tennessee Stud / 112 / Lambourn 117
Sir Dinadan / 102 / Lambourn 107.25
Green Impact / 112 / Lambourn 117.6
Thrice / 102 / Lambourn 108.75
Shackleton / 101 / Lambourn 112


Now, any ratings 'expert' will insist that this isn't the most accurate way to rate a race and the big companies with the computing power can apply race standards, which they almost certainly will do to give Lambourn a higher rating, but let's at least consider the above for now.

So the best case scenario is that Lambourn is maybe a 119 horse (which might not be far off the average for a winner anyway. I don't see how that makes him "very, very good". It makes him bang average.)

He might get a sectional upgrade which I can accept 'cos these things are mathematical. But as far as I can see the only race metric - apart from the one that really matters, ie being first past the post - by which Lambourn came out best was his speed to 20mph and Moore has used that to get him to the front and stay there, exposing others' deficiencies. He was the best horse in the race and was ridden to rule out a shock defeat. "No messing" is how I'd put it.

I'm well known on here as one of Moore's biggest critics but I'm happy to praise him when he puts up good rides, which is most of the time and certainly here.
 
Desert Orchid said:
The finishing order:

View attachment 24236Leaving aside the RaceIQ data for now, this is how they finished and how Lambourn's rating works out via the next seven beaten horses:

Horse / OR / Lambourn

Serious Contender / 101 / Lambourn 102
Lazy Griff / 114 / Lambourn 118.5
Tennessee Stud / 112 / Lambourn 117
Sir Dinadan / 102 / Lambourn 107.25
Green Impact / 112 / Lambourn 117.6
Thrice / 102 / Lambourn 108.75
Shackleton / 101 / Lambourn 112


Now, any ratings 'expert' will insist that this isn't the most accurate way to rate a race and the big companies with the computing power can apply race standards, which they almost certainly will do to give Lambourn a higher rating, but let's at least consider the above for now.

So the best case scenario is that Lambourn is maybe a 119 horse (which might not be far off the average for a winner anyway. I don't see how that makes him "very, very good". It makes him bang average.)

He might get a sectional upgrade which I can accept 'cos these things are mathematical. But as far as I can see the only race metric - apart from the one that really matters, ie being first past the post - by which Lambourn came out best was his speed to 20mph and Moore has used that to get him to the front and stay there, exposing others' deficiencies. He was the best horse in the race and was ridden to rule out a shock defeat. "No messing" is how I'd put it.

I'm well known on here as one of Moore's biggest critics but I'm happy to praise him when he puts up good rides, which is most of the time and certainly here.
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I don't agree. He went so fast they they should have mowed him down. They didn't.
 
Slim said:
I don't agree. He went so fast they they should have mowed him down. They didn't.
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The mark-up will illustrate how much he overdid it.

I don't agree that they showed have mowed him down. If they were of similar ability they might have had a chance but he was the best horse in the race and ridden to show it.
 
Conditions have led to the fast time.

Imo he'll be around an average Irish Derby/Derby winner.

Also horses that go too fast early don't run overall fast times.

I could be wrong that's an opinion after a glance.

Just to add a little the handicap after over the same distance was 0.9 seconds fast and 2 horses carrying slightly more weight rated 89 and 91 have basically run a time that would put them 15 lengths behind Lambourn give or take. There is a lot more that goes into things than just that Slim, I don't dive that deep these days but the signs are there it's nothing special.
 
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Danny said:
Conditions have led to the fast time.

Imo he'll be around an average Irish Derby/Derby winner.

Also horses that go too fast early don't run overall fast times.

I could be wrong that's an opinion after a glance.

Just to add a little the handicap after over the same distance was 0.9 seconds fast and 2 horses carrying slightly more weight rated 89 and 91 have basically run a time that would put them 15 lengths behind Lambourn give or take. There is a lot more that goes into things than just that Slim, I don't dive that deep these days but the signs are there it's nothing special.
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You're talking through your hole. I'm not quite sure what else to say.
 
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RP view:
LAMBOURN, like his sire and grandsire, completed the Epsom/Curragh double but it was hard work this time, at one point struggling to get past Sir Dinadan before having to dig deep to fend off a stablemate who was beaten in a Royal Ascot handicap ten days ago. It's impossible to call this vintage form but his attitude can't be questioned and he'd surely stay the extended 1m6f of the St Leger, for which he's now a top-priced 2-1 favourite (mostly 6-4 elsewhere).
 
My view:

Since Coolmore seem to be the only major outfit interested in breeding Derby distance horses I suppose it’s no surprise they are mopping up since half the opposition struggle with the distance. On that basis Lambourn has not faced a race chock full of top quality opposition bred for Derby purpose - that’s not his fault. If that makes the race sub-standard in terms of the past, it doesn’t make it sub-standard in terms of today and I think he shone bright for his convincing win at Epsom and for his determination and courage today. He’ll do for me.
 
Slim said:
I'm amused that times matter until they are too fast to fit the narrative.
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When ordinary horses do seemingly fast times there has to be a reason. Lots of track records are held by ordinary horses. I've said often enough down the years that form is far more important than time and even had an article about it printed in the Handicap Book about 40 years ago.

The 12f record at Epsom was held by Knockroe for years, achieved under 10-0 in a handicap.

Only last week Trawlerman broke the track record at Ascot and he is no freak. I wouldn't have fancied him to beat Kyprios. This is how Simon Rowlands put it:

A couple of course records were broken during the week, most notably that for the Gold Cup distance of 10 yards short of two and a half miles, while several others were endangered.

The previous Gold Cup best was held by Rite Of Passage, winner in 2010 with 4m 16.92s, though Royal Gait had posted 4m 15.67s when first past the post but harshly disqualified (I am still not over it!) in 1988, at which time the course was slightly different.

Either way, Trawlerman bettered them both, and by some way, with a time of 4m 15.02s, reflective of a slick surface, good horses and a pace that scarcely let up after a somewhat tepid opening section.
 
Aiden said post race that Lambourn is a horse not subject to the "flight or fight "response that most racehorses usually exhibit.
He is like his sire Australia in that regard.
He listens to his rider and does enough to win, in other words.
If not encouraged, he won't respond.
(This may explain how Wayne, not Ryan rode him at Epsom.)
That said, he did 60kph in a canter yesterday so is not short of speed either, according to APOB.
A J Martin or Charles Byrnes would love a few horses like him, as would most syndicates in the country.
We will know his true ability when he gets beaten , no doubt.
back to the drawing board for Green Impact, maybe a campaign in USA.
 
Lambourn beat the horses it had to on the day & being the winner was fastest overall.
Can't ask any more than that, and that's all that mattered to me personally.
I dare bet horses can have straight forward good & bad days where they perform well beyond or below expectations.
Everyone is entitled to pick over the result but for me it soon becomes too much of "if ifs & buts were apples & nuts...."
 
Desert Orchid said:
When ordinary horses do seemingly fast times there has to be a reason. Lots of track records are held by ordinary horses. I've said often enough down the years that form is far more important than time and even had an article about it printed in the Handicap Book about 40 years ago.

The 12f record at Epsom was held by Knockroe for years, achieved under 10-0 in a handicap.

Only last week Trawlerman broke the track record at Ascot and he is no freak. I wouldn't have fancied him to beat Kyprios. This is how Simon Rowlands put it:

A couple of course records were broken during the week, most notably that for the Gold Cup distance of 10 yards short of two and a half miles, while several others were endangered.

The previous Gold Cup best was held by Rite Of Passage, winner in 2010 with 4m 16.92s, though Royal Gait had posted 4m 15.67s when first past the post but harshly disqualified (I am still not over it!) in 1988, at which time the course was slightly different.

Either way, Trawlerman bettered them both, and by some way, with a time of 4m 15.02s, reflective of a slick surface, good horses and a pace that scarcely let up after a somewhat tepid opening section.
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The ground at Ascot was lightening. There is no comparison.
 
edgt said:
Aiden said post race that Lambourn is a horse not subject to the "flight or fight "response that most racehorses usually exhibit.
He is like his sire Australia in that regard.
He listens to his rider and does enough to win, in other words.
If not encouraged, he won't respond.
(This may explain how Wayne, not Ryan rode him at Epsom.)
That said, he did 60kph in a canter yesterday so is not short of speed either, according to APOB.
A J Martin or Charles Byrnes would love a few horses like him, as would most syndicates in the country.
We will know his true ability when he gets beaten , no doubt.
back to the drawing board for Green Impact, maybe a campaign in USA.
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Delacroix got bumped and became unbaLanced in the Derby (AOB reported),until then he'd be regarded as Coolmore's best chance,hence Ryan rode him.
In yestrday's,race,he alone would know how much horse he had under him,and rode him to produce sufficient without asking more serious questions - as the replay clearly shows.
Time may tell how good he is;ratimg him on that performance won't.
 
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Going forward, Lazy Griff at 9/1 strikes me as a decent ew bet in the Leger. It's a defined target and his apparent main rivals may well go elsewhere.
 
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