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What are you backing Today? Part 2

A couple of semi tasty EW bets, followed by a couple of die rolls around the doughnut.

YORK 4:25 KING CHAOS 40/1 EW Medium Stakes
Potentially slightly well in, even more so if can break OK. Drawn wide but will race in rear anyway. Forecast to be rank outsider. Sections looked OK at Catt LTO over 7F. Short 1M here, long run in should help. Might not want it firming up too much though. Yard looking for first win at York after 20 previous attempts, but that's not overly concerning.
Empire Of Light is rated a touch high, might need the race too, but could be in the places if ready (also forecast as an outsider).

WINDSOR 8:15 SOLDIERS STAR 16/1 EW Medium Stakes
About 2lb short of mark, but is dropping back to 6F and that 'could' make up the difference. The coast looks clear for tracking over to lead on rail. If can manage to steady the pace a little (just briefly mid race), may not be caught at this CD. Jockey course stats good. Yard/Jock stats OK too. Has shown a gutsy attitude previously and has plenty of speed.

CHESTER 3:15 FAR ABOVE THE LAW 10/1 EW Small Stakes
CP's seem to have done the trick. Stalls 13,15,16,17 and 18 all filled the last 5 spots LTO. Was drawn 14 in that race and was the only one to make ground on the prominent runners from the near side. Territorial Knight gave the form a boost at Donc on Wednesday (as did Lesley's Boy to some extent on Thursday). Is drawn in stall 8 today, but not an impossible task.

CHESTER 5:30 NARMAR 17/2 EW Small Stakes
CP's seem to have been beneficial. Looks slightly well in and the way it RO LTO at Windsor suggests the step up in trip may not be an issue, but still a risky unknown factor. Does need to break better, but can drop in behind the 3 to it's left and hold a rail position, then will need a clear passage (if it stays). Will save ground on inner, while the 5 to it's outer may struggle for early position, or use a bit too much energy sorting themselves out.

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Had thought about the below one too, but decided against it. Had another 4 from notebook running, but didn't take long to find reasons not to bother with them. Just thought I'd highlight the Jockey course stats as a matter of a caution, else otherwise looks quite worthy of an EW at the odds. I came close initially.

YORK 2:00 SERGEANT WILKO 18/1 EW?
Ran a cracker from the front at Haydock in May. Probably ran to 95 in that race. Might be a little more suited to York. Stall 22?
Tom Eaves course stats are a huge negative. He rides younger horses better there (2yo's 7 - 8% / 3yo's 5 - 6% / 4yo+ 2 - 3%). The higher percentages were rides restricted to last 5 years. The lower percentages were from all time. They're not from small samples either. Too much of a negative.
 
Not the most obvious of selections but I have had a few ££ EW on Faberi @80/1 3.25 Gowran Park, green as grass on her only start last year in a contest won by this year's leading filly and dual Oaks winner Minnie Hauk - she did however hint at a little ability. Faberi showed little on her return last month finishing a well beaten tenth at Navan. She should strip fitter for that outing, and the return to a mile will hopefully be in her favour after taking a keen hold over ten furlongs last time. The application of a hood offers some hope and I wouldn't be surprised if she ran better than her odds suggest, an unlikely winner but with some improvement can hopefully push for minor honours.
 
Couple of outsiders at Yarmouth [Bet 365]

3.15-Carlton... @ 14-1 [Bet 365]

4.22-Pending Appeal @ 18-1

1pt win on both plus 0.5pt ew double
 
Goodwood

3.45 Rocking Ends is in really good form and won last time in first time cheekpieces, which he wears again here. I think 16/1 is a criminal misdiagnosis of his chance, I really do.😂
 
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It's been a hard few days betting wise. I've backed Novelista the last twice and I can only hope given he stays 1M6F or thereabouts, that William Buick will have the freedom to race more prominently tomorrow to make use of the fact this horse obviously stays further. This seems a logical hypothesis to draw up.

I'm also having a dabble on Qirat each way in the Sussex. Obviously I would have much preferred 8 runners for the three places, but bar the favourite, I think it's pretty open for second place, and at approximate odds of 33/1 for a place, I think Qirat, who has ran well at this place before, and who they reckon is a pacemaker tomorrow, might just out run these odds.
 
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The Fortune Teller said:
I know a horse and see a cliff now.

Melrose I wonder. Maybe he's not good enough for that.
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Listening to Charlie Johnston just now talking about Novelista and the Melrose, and do you know, I think I'm a better race planner than punter.

Anyway, see how he does over 1M4F now anyway. I'm hoping William Buick races prominently but I won't bank on it.
 
The Fortune Teller said:
It's been a hard few days betting wise. I've backed Novelista the last twice and I can only hope given he stays 1M6F or thereabouts, that William Buick will have the freedom to race more prominently tomorrow to make use of the fact this horse obviously stays further. This seems a logical hypothesis to draw up.

I'm also having a dabble on Qirat each way in the Sussex. Obviously I would have much preferred 8 runners for the three places, but bar the favourite, I think it's pretty open for second place, and at approximate odds of 33/1 for a place, I think Qirat, who has ran well at this place before, and who they reckon is a pacemaker tomorrow, might just out run these odds.
Click to expand...
Well done. Hope you got the 150’s
 
The Fortune Teller said:
It's been a hard few days betting wise. I've backed Novelista the last twice and I can only hope given he stays 1M6F or thereabouts, that William Buick will have the freedom to race more prominently tomorrow to make use of the fact this horse obviously stays further. This seems a logical hypothesis to draw up.

I'm also having a dabble on Qirat each way in the Sussex. Obviously I would have much preferred 8 runners for the three places, but bar the favourite, I think it's pretty open for second place, and at approximate odds of 33/1 for a place, I think Qirat, who has ran well at this place before, and who they reckon is a pacemaker tomorrow, might just out run these odds.
Click to expand...

Cracking shout, well done!
 
Well done, TFT. I haven't been looking, but that's one you won't forget. Closest I've ever come was Jason Weaver riding a debutant 25+ years ago at Lingfield at 150's. I hesitated for ages in my local Ladbrokes, left it and it went in at 150's (and I still remember that vividly even though I wasn't on). 66's has been my biggest. Nice one. (y)

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Thursday

GOODWOOD 5:30 PRINCIPALITY 25/1 EW
I managed to get 25/1 on the TAB (only 4 places though) and 8/1 for the place. UK books generally 22's. 365 ducking.
Medium stakes.

GOODWOOD 1:20 MAGELLAN CLOUD 40/1 EW
Small stakes.

Also had a small win double.

Wishing everyone a glorious day.
 

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