Irish Cambridgeshire on Saturday

[The Fortune Teller]

I was having a look at this race and just wondering why bookmakers aren't pricing up it ante post yet? Anyone have any ideas when they will? Also, can anyone say when confirmations and final declarations will be? Ta.

 

[Ian_Davies]

just wondering why bookmakers aren't pricing up it ante post yet?

Would you?

Jesus, I'd be last to price that one up.

I'd imagine it will be at next declaration/confirmed stage this week, which might be tomorrow, but shamefully I'm not actually sure.

I think the Handicapper has given Norwalk Havoc and Monasterboice a chance with 3lb and 4lb drops, but both look like they are best with cut to me.

Lincoln winner Godwinson, stablemate Treasure Time and veteran Dutch Decoy are interesting Blighty entries.

 

[Grey]

There is a forfeit stage tomorrow and declarations to run have to be made by 10 am on Thursday morning.

 

[Ian_Davies]

There is a forfeit stage tomorrow and declarations to run have to be made by 10 am on Thursday morning.

Is there a four-day stage tomorrow as well?

I ought to know but, with Irish racing, I just wait for meeting entries to appear online then take it from there.

 

[Grey]

The normal race has entries five days out and then decs two days beforehand. But for the bigger races entries are made earlier and at the five day stage you can either take your horse out of the race or leave it in.

 

[The Fortune Teller]

Would you?

Jesus, I'd be last to price that one up.

I'd imagine it will be at next declaration/confirmed stage this week, which might be tomorrow, but shamefully I'm not actually sure.

I think the Handicapper has given Norwalk Havoc and Monasterboice a chance with 3lb and 4lb drops, but both look like they are best with cut to me.

Lincoln winner Godwinson, stablemate Treasure Time and veteran Dutch Decoy are interesting Blighty entries.

What about Coeur D'or, Ian? He's got previous. He won this race in 2023 off 97. Fourth last year off 100. He's back on 97 for this year's renewal. He's a 9 year old now, but he's not been over raced.

 

[Ian_Davies]

What about Coeur D'or, Ian? He's got previous. He won this race in 2023 off 97. Fourth last year off 100. He's back on 97 for this year's renewal. He's a 9 year old now, but he's not but been over raced.

I couldn't put you off him.

Seems to me he's run two perfectly-decent races this year, yet he's dropped from 100 to 97, which is a bit of a magical number for him in the context of this race, as you rightly say.

But let's face it, it's no more than even money that some unexposed beast housed in a garage in a Dublin suburb (a friend of mine actually did that overnight with his daughter's Pointer once when it was between yards) will find a stone to beat all the formbook anorak choices in cold blood.

 

[Outsider]

I've always been a coeur d'or fan.also a big fan of No more Porter who is very well hcapped but seems to be regressive.
The Tony Martin horse is worth considering.

 

[Desert Orchid]

I'm beginning to wonder if it's worth the bother of studying the form any more.

OK, maybe this is the fallout of an unsuccessful York but has there been a big handicap this summer that hasn't gone to something whose price hasn't collapsed in the hour leading up to the race? Even the Ebor winner halved in price while the long-term favourite and stablemate went for a mountain hike.

Whoever/whatever is coming up with these 'models' they've obviously got something that isn't available to 'normal' form students (thinking of myself here, obviously).

I've been saying on here for some time that I see myself 'retiring' from form study in due course - and it would have happened by now if the move to Spain had come off - but this summer's results are a new phenomenon to me and I'm genuinely not the type to just join in a plunge; I think I'd rather go without a bet than do that.

I still get a kick out of working out what happened in a race and why something ran differently from expectations but as Sergeant Murtaugh was wont to whinge, "I'm too old for this shit..."

 

[Ian_Davies]

I'm beginning to wonder if it's worth the bother of studying the form any more.

OK, maybe this is the fallout of an unsuccessful York but has there been a big handicap this summer that hasn't gone to something whose price hasn't collapsed in the hour leading up to the race? Even the Ebor winner halved in price while the long-term favourite and stablemate went for a mountain hike.

Whoever/whatever is coming up with these 'models' they've obviously got something that isn't available to 'normal' form students (thinking of myself here, obviously).

I've been saying on here for some time that I see myself 'retiring' from form study in due course - and it would have happened by now if the move to Spain had come off - but this summer's results are a new phenomenon to me and I'm genuinely not the type to just join in a plunge; I think I'd rather go without a bet than do that.

I still get a kick out of working out what happened in a race and why something ran differently from expectations but as Sergeant Murtaugh was wont to whinge, "I'm too old for this shit..."

You're an intriguing mass of contradictions, Maurice.

The conspiracy theorist in you sees gambling plots everywhere - including at Group 1 level where they're least likely to exist - and yet you bemoan a lack of easy profits for the form book anorak.

Any fool can read a form book.

Plots in racing are nothing new - and accurate data models are no longer new either (I've been aware of them nearly 20 years and even have my own).

If you can still win long term doing what you do it's worth persevering.

Plus none of us is too old to learn and improve - me included.

 

[Grey]

I think an ever greater portion of betting on races is being done in the final minutes before the off. Ante Post and overnight betting is greatly restricted, so prices before the day itself are increasingly irrelevant. And even morning prices are no great guide.

I would have thought that for a form student such as yourself, betting to relatively small stakes, these circumstances increase your opportunities. The shrewd money is not arriving into the market and hoovering up the best prices until later in the day than previously.

I’d say you’ve just been having a run of poor results, which happens to all of us.

 

[Ian_Davies]

I think an ever greater portion of betting on races is being done in the final minutes before the off. Ante Post and overnight betting is greatly restricted, so prices before the day itself are increasingly irrelevant. And even morning prices are no great guide.

I would have thought that for a form student such as yourself these circumstances increase your opportunities. The shrewd money is not arriving into the market and hoovering up the best prices until later in the day than previously.

I’d say you’ve just been having a run of poor results, which happens to all of us.

Some good points here, I think.

The modern high-staking pro ignores that which simply isn't available to him - anyone with half a brain can beat Bet365 at first show, but the pro can't get on with Bet365 unless he has a bewildering network of "beards."

"Can I beat the machine a minute before the Off when I can finally get a bet on of the size I need to bet at to make a living?" is what they ask themselves.

This leaves ample scope for the recreational punter - or even semi pro if they duck and dive - to get scraps of value earlier on.

 

[Slim]

I think an ever greater portion of betting on races is being done in the final minutes before the off. Ante Post and overnight betting is greatly restricted, so prices before the day itself are increasingly irrelevant. And even morning prices are no great guide.

I would have thought that for a form student such as yourself, betting to relatively small stakes, these circumstances increase your opportunities. The shrewd money is not arriving into the market and hoovering up the best prices until later in the day than previously.

I’d say you’ve just been having a run of poor results, which happens to all of us.

I strongly agree with this.

 

[Slim]

Any fool can read a form book.

I'll raise you Jane Mangan.

 

[barjon]

Why is it happening a few minutes before the off? Will connections wait that long, or will they try to get in before the price goes? Same maybe applies to the “near” connections? Or is it because the bookies suddenly get wise to the money going down and kill the sp? Who bets sp anyway?

 

[Ian_Davies]

Why is it happening a few minutes before the off? Will connections wait that long, or will they try to get in before the price goes? Same maybe applies to the “near” connections? Or is it because the bookies suddenly get wise to the money going down and kill the sp? Who bets sp anyway?

As stated above, I think it's late professional data model money - they can't get a bet of the size they want on until there is volume in a mature market.

They can beat the Betfair SP and that's their enforced performance bar as they can't get on in size anywhere else.

 

[Outsider]

And there was me thinking this was the Irish Cambridgeshire thread.

 

[Slim]

As stated above, I think it's late professional data model money - they can't get a bet of the size they want on until there is volume in a mature market.

They can beat the Betfair SP and that's their enforced performance bar as they can't get on in size anywhere else.

The really big players can’t use Betfair SP to grade their bets because it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

[Ian_Davies]

Yes, I didn't mean they bet at Betfair SP as they'd make that SP collapse, what I meant is that they surely have to get matched in and around the SP (no doubt they shorten once they get involved) just before the Off because that's the only time they can get on in size.

But you've been involved in all this a lot more recently than me - the last time I'd say I was in the thick of it all was circa 2010 and times change, that's part of why I find your more contemporary insights so interesting.

 

[Ian_Davies]

And there was me thinking this was the Irish Cambridgeshire thread.

20 left in the race today, including a few we've discussed (and plenty we haven't).

 

[Slim]

Yes, I didn't mean they bet at Betfair SP as they'd make that SP collapse, what I meant is that they surely have to get matched in and around the SP (no doubt they shorten once they get involved) just before the Off because that's the only time they can get on in size.

But you've been involved in all this a lot more recently than me - the last time I'd say I was in the thick of it all was circa 2010 and times change, that's part of why I find your more contemporary insights so interesting.

There are a lot of models at play. When they all agree, that’s when they go from 9/2 to 5/2. When the biggest one plays, it can move a market at Cheltenham like it’s a claimer at Wexford.

 

[Danny]

A couple of points.

I do not know nor do I ever want to know what a betting model is.

Greys point, basically late money is smart money id completely agree with.

3 certainties in life death,taxes and Maurice threatens to retire every bad run he has and has done since at least the 70's. But fear not fans of the Scottish figure fumbler, he never actually does.

Also im a fan of the Irish Cambridgshire i had a trifecta attempt last year and hit the 2nd 3rd and 4th beat by one of those miracle rides from Ryan Moore on Wigmore hall or something like that. Nothing worse than getting done by one of those rides and then having to watch the replay of it over and over again as people drool over the ride for months and years later. Even popped up on my tik tok earlier this morning as if I needed an extra kick in the balls to start the day.

 

[Ian_Davies]

I do not know nor do I ever want to know what a betting model is.

So much in Danny's post I can't answer it all in one reply.

I respect your lack of desire to know, but suffice to say it is a form of smart, late, money.

 

[Ian_Davies]

3 certainties in life death,taxes and Maurice threatens to retire every bad run he has and has done since at least the 70's. But fear not fans of the Scottish figure fumbler, he never actually does.

Thanks for marking my card historically.

For a dour Scottish spreadsheet merchant, he's SUCH a DIVA, isn't he?

Thanks for confirming my growing suspicions about the auld drama queen!

 

[Ian_Davies]

Even popped up on my tik tok

This is VERY annoying.

Just when I think I'm the coolest, most down with the kids, 62yo on the planet - because I have an Instagram account - Danny tops me by being on Tik Tok.

Evening.....RUINED.