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The 2025 Arc Trials Day fixture @ Longchamp
- Thread starter Ian_Davies
- Start date
Slim
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Yet that's exactly what she looks like.
Slim
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Can everyone now accept there is a hole in her?
Frankel
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Wasn't there supposed to be a hole in Calandagan?
Slim
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Oh yeah. Top class form beating that tramp.Wasn't there supposed to be a hole in Calandagan?
Frankel
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Twicers still find a way to lose.
Aventure is no mug either!
Are all of these tomorrow meant to be Arc 'trials' ?
Longchamp Prix Foy Flat Stakes
Longchamp Prix Niel Flat Stakes
Longchamp Prix Vermeille Flat Stakes
Longchamp Prix du Moulin Flat Stakes
Because I've ran the numbers cross referencing the runners from each year and since 2000 only 2 horses have gone from the Longchamp Prix du Moulin Flat Stakes to the following Arc and none have won.
Since 2000, 61 horses have gone from the Longchamp Prix Foy Flat Stakes to the following Arc and only 1 has won and 8 have placed.
The Longchamp Prix Niel Flat Stakes and Longchamp Prix Vermeille Flat Stakes are decent trials for the Arc but only re winners of those trials.
Longchamp Prix Foy Flat Stakes
Longchamp Prix Niel Flat Stakes
Longchamp Prix Vermeille Flat Stakes
Longchamp Prix du Moulin Flat Stakes
Because I've ran the numbers cross referencing the runners from each year and since 2000 only 2 horses have gone from the Longchamp Prix du Moulin Flat Stakes to the following Arc and none have won.
Since 2000, 61 horses have gone from the Longchamp Prix Foy Flat Stakes to the following Arc and only 1 has won and 8 have placed.
The Longchamp Prix Niel Flat Stakes and Longchamp Prix Vermeille Flat Stakes are decent trials for the Arc but only re winners of those trials.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
Sorry, pawras, I didn't mean to suggest the Moulin was an Arc trial - just the other three.
Interesting to see your comments on the Niel and the Foy, though.
Slim
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I'll go one better, Whirl won't even run in the Arc and they know that now.
see if it wins tomorrow first, personally I think Gezora has a lot going for it plus the course experience
By the time the Arc happens the first weekend in Oct I want to have all the French Group and Listed races set up in my target trial analysis system, but I've only done about 16 out of more like 116, so a lot of work to do, but will be interesting to see the hard numbers re real Arc trials and the general analysis of French raiders here and UK/IRE raiders there cos I doubt there are many with hard numbers on that.
I did the same for the Hong Kong races (which start again on Sunday), but they only have 30 odd pattern races, still proved quite illuminating.
I did the same for the Hong Kong races (which start again on Sunday), but they only have 30 odd pattern races, still proved quite illuminating.
Slim
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I don't think she'll run either way.
1525 Longchamp Qatar Prix Vermeille (Group 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Grande Course) (Turf) 3yo+ : Prize Money £283338.84
I have Whirl top rated & Gezora almost level on my ratings and much as I have an aversion to going against odds on shots Whirl has a negative against it in that UK/IRE raiders don't have a good record in this race. Whirl could be one of the very few to break the trend, given it's performance at Group level here, but I'd say it's certainly a factor to consider when since 2000, overall there have been 65 UK/IRE raiders and only 4 (6.2%) have won.
I have Whirl top rated & Gezora almost level on my ratings and much as I have an aversion to going against odds on shots Whirl has a negative against it in that UK/IRE raiders don't have a good record in this race. Whirl could be one of the very few to break the trend, given it's performance at Group level here, but I'd say it's certainly a factor to consider when since 2000, overall there have been 65 UK/IRE raiders and only 4 (6.2%) have won.
Ian_Davies
Conditional
I think this is yet another fabulous thread (I'm really enjoying the forum at the moment), full of interesting, diverse, views.
I wish I could add to them.
But I've seen ground initially described as testing rapidly change in description and turn out quite quick by post time at Deauville all summer and I'm unsure what it will be today.
Grey offers excellent input on French going imo, there's an opinionated (always valuable) angle from Slim's source, but I don't feel as sure as when doing my own research here in Blighty on Blighty ground.
The ground is only one factor, but imo there are four tight races full of ground-dependant horses today.
Dancing Gemini and Almaqam are just two who need cut imo, the likes of Henri Matisse and others would be best on a resilient surface imo.
I haven't had a bet yet, and I may just watch today, though if early race times give me a steer and the odds have shifted in the opposite direction to what I finally conclude the ground is, thus creating value bets imo, I might get involved.
Either way, it's an interesting card, made even more interesting by this discussion.
I wish I could add to them.
But I've seen ground initially described as testing rapidly change in description and turn out quite quick by post time at Deauville all summer and I'm unsure what it will be today.
Grey offers excellent input on French going imo, there's an opinionated (always valuable) angle from Slim's source, but I don't feel as sure as when doing my own research here in Blighty on Blighty ground.
The ground is only one factor, but imo there are four tight races full of ground-dependant horses today.
Dancing Gemini and Almaqam are just two who need cut imo, the likes of Henri Matisse and others would be best on a resilient surface imo.
I haven't had a bet yet, and I may just watch today, though if early race times give me a steer and the odds have shifted in the opposite direction to what I finally conclude the ground is, thus creating value bets imo, I might get involved.
Either way, it's an interesting card, made even more interesting by this discussion.
Slim
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Dancing Gemini is simply priced wrong on Betfair right now. It can’t be that short given today’s forecast.
Shouldn’t the Lead Artist groupies on the forum be giving him another go today?
Also, just to upset Ian, my friend posted this question:
“If there’s a tailwind on fastish ground, something strange could happen.”
Shouldn’t the Lead Artist groupies on the forum be giving him another go today?
Also, just to upset Ian, my friend posted this question:
“If there’s a tailwind on fastish ground, something strange could happen.”
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Ian_Davies
Conditional
When I put him up for the Lockinge at 18/1 (links provided by GAS - Gaylord Aftertiming Services - are available) it was partly ground related and if you forgave him a poor run at Royal Ascot and believed the ground today would be similar to that at Newbury he could be arguably a slither of value today.
My instinct is your source is right and there simply won't be any give today, but I'm too gutless to have a bet until I see early race times.
Though even those aren't guaranteed to be instructive - I think at least one of these four races under discussion today will be run at a false early pace - it's a regular feature of these races.
Blurgh I made a mistake and only included races where runners today ran in the last renewal, the full set is much bigger, since 2000, 286 runners coming from UK/IRE races and 30 (10.5%) winners
