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The remaining November Meeting races at Cheltenham

Danny said:
Dont think the Mrs would be to proud if I did an overnighter at Jinnys. More power to your elbow though gord.
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When you have been married like me for 50 years I think my wife trusts me now anyway Jinnyj's greyhounds would keep you in check 😆
 
My Mrs keeps advertising me free to good home ( doesn't even need to be that good according to her ). Even so I keep on keeping on.

One thing ive also learned down the years is unless you are young, virile and have a healthy ticker (personally none of the above) there are two types of women to steer clear of, those who keep a couple of grams of coke in their boot and women who ride horses.
 
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Danny said:
Why are Robicheaux or Chaumi coming to say hello ? Im pretty sure they said they were going but have yet to confirm that they are at least coming to say hello. Can't say as I blame them but was at least hoping to bag some proper tips.
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I can only attribute it to their consummate good taste.

Anyway, Lord Baddesley on Friday, Danny, I wouldn't lay 5/1 but a few books still will.

What beats it wins, I reckon.
 
Danny said:
My Mrs keeps advertising me free to good home ( doesn't even need to be that good according to her ). Even so I keep on keeping on.

One thing ive also learned down the years is unless you are young, virile and have a healthy ticker (personally none of the above) there are two types of women to steer clear of, those who keep a couple of grams of coke in their boot and women who ride horses.
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Don't think you would have got on with Jilly Cooper then Danny 😬
 
Priory Park for me in the 1.10 on Friday is interesting- looked a new horse since moving yard winning easy first time before a nice run over 3m in a reasonable enough handicap hurdle at Listowel. Eoin Staples rode the last twice and is over to ride on Friday taking another 6 lbs off for a yard who wouldn't send many across the water, I'd be keen to take a lot of these on anyway so I'll not turn down 25/1
 
The last race on Friday intrigues me.

Alphonse De Grande, even 2lb wrong, is hilariously thrown in on his Flat form and deteriorating ground shouldn't be an issue as he won a Cesarewitch on Soft.

But I'd be confident he'd get 3m over hurdles and, for me, it's an interesting decision to return to timber at this trip.

Fortune De Mer showed a good attitude in a Grade 2 at the last meeting here and, although top weight, he only actually runs off 124, he might be a fair bit better than that and consequently far too good for most of these.
 
Without trying to sound like a bellend I realise I spent the first half of the week convincing myself and others that there was some value taking on Jon Bon and I believe there was I also still think Matata is overpriced in comparison to the rest of the field at his current 16/1. However the main bulk of this chat was whilst Jon bon was priced up at between 2/5 and 1/3 he's now 5/6 best price and possibly going to see evs or a touch of odds against at some point. At what point does he have to get to where he'd be a bet ? As a rule i never punt at short prices myself but there's definitely a chance I could be looking at Jon Bon in the winners enclosure thinking how did they let him go off at that price ? Edwardstone is finished, not convinced the Skelton horse is top class Liberty Hunter is good on his day and conditions will suit he's 9yo how much better is he going to get than his current 151 rating ? And as much as im hopefully that Matata can return to something like its best and that will be enough to to mix it up with Jon bon at least he's just as likely to run another stinker.

Calling the short price lump Job punters...whats the price for him to be a bet ?
 
I don't think bad ground will bother Jonbon, who won a Tingle Creek well enough on Heavy, or Matata who won in pretty deep ground when I was at Windsor.

I don't like backing horses after lay-offs, especially at short prices - yes Jonbon would probably be too big at even money, but then again I think there are more solid even money shots every week.

He's the most probable winner, obviously, but he's one of those that I'm happy to see win without my money on him.
 
Truncheon said:
Forecast is not good, looks like soft to heavy ground is possible
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It'll be fine. Soft for Friday. Soft, gd to sft in places Saturday and by Sunday we'll all be broke so who gives a damn.

Got tired of waiting for Ian and Slim to tell us what the going is so I've just made it up completely.
 
It was 6.1 at 2.30pm today, that's actually higher than the 5.9 at the last meeting when the times endorsed the official description of Good.

There is rain on the way, but it's not like the ground is in a state at the moment.

I'm keeping an open mind in it for now.
 
Met office weather warning for Cheltenham on Friday

Remember the one for Epsom on Derby day? No f$%*er turned up and it didn't start raining till the last race

On the same day we was under a weather warning and it rained for about 15 seconds

Just forecast heavy rain ffs
 
I do remember and that's why, though I'm grateful for the heads up, I'm keeping an open mind about what will actually happen.

The Met Office can put us away about what the ground will be better than any CoC sometimes.
 
My take on Matata's form is that he has performed well when at or near the front in steadily run races. Might that happen for him on Friday? Probably not, because Jonbon will set a pace faster than that.
 
Grey said:
My take on Matata's form is that he has performed well when at or near the front in steadily run races. Might that happen for him on Friday? Probably not, because Jonbon will set a pace faster than that.
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You could have a point although I think in a couple of his races last year he did himself no favours by running too freely. Gunsightt Ridge may have run him down if he hadn't fallen at this meeting last year. And his best performance actually came at Windsor when he was ridden with a bit more restraint and took a lead from Editeur de Gite at Windsor before turning the taps on from half way.

Which ever way you look at it Jon bon is the best in the race and most likely winner but as pointed out his win in this last year he certainly wasn't at his best and i wouldn't expect him to be fully wound up again this year with bigger targets ahead. Edwardstone looked pretty much like a horse on the decline all of last season. The Arkle would have been won comfortably by Majborough but for an horrific mistake and the fact he still managed to get back up in front of Leau du sud after that would lead you to think that he's a bit short of top class. Leaving Majborough aside the other 3 were so close together in the Arkle it's highly unlikely any of them are the next big thing, well at least over the 2 mile trip.

Liberty Hunter has 2 narrow victories over Matata but the first of those he was in reciept of 11lbs and won by a length. The 2nd of those off level weights he and Master Chewy ran down Matata late at Newbury after Matata again had done most of the donkey work. This time around Matata has the benefit of youth and race fitness onside. You could say that Liberty Hunter won first time up last year and goes well fresh but to put that into context he won a handicap off 144 by 4 lengths more is required here. So at the end of the day Jon Bon is the one to beat, and on their best days you could probably throw a blanket over these other 3 at the finish but 2 of them were 4/1 and Matata we've managed to snaffle 28's on and some crazy prices taken on forecasts with him, god willing there are no NR's to feck that up. He's still 16's and I'd genuinely have him no bigger than 8's even after the poor show fto.

The point you mention is less of a concern to me than his run first time out. He stopped like he'd been shot. I'm hoping that was just a fitness issue rather than anything more sinister and I'm not sure if the dry spell has impacted trainers being able to get them as fit as they normally would be first time up. As Ian has said a possibility he blows out or even that he fails to reproduce his best from last term but for me i'll take that risk any day of the week at the prices.
 
18 declared for the 1.30 at Cheltenham on Saturday, I think I've got something for this, but I want to see the full jockey bookings, a first show of betting and get a better handle on what the weather's actually doing before making up my mind.
 
Ian_Davies said:
The last race on Friday intrigues me.

Alphonse De Grande, even 2lb wrong, is hilariously thrown in on his Flat form and deteriorating ground shouldn't be an issue as he won a Cesarewitch on Soft.

But I'd be confident he'd get 3m over hurdles and, for me, it's an interesting decision to return to timber at this trip.

Fortune De Mer showed a good attitude in a Grade 2 at the last meeting here and, although top weight, he only actually runs off 124, he might be a fair bit better than that and consequently far too good for most of these.
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I was on the phone to my form man friend earlier. I laughed hard when he told me Alphonse De Grande's hurdle mark. I'm going to bet this like it's 2002.
 
Ian_Davies said:
18 declared for the 1.30 at Cheltenham on Saturday, I think I've got something for this, but I want to see the full jockey bookings, a first show of betting and get a better handle on what the weather's actually doing before making up my mind.
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Are you waiting to see whether Derek O'Connor is available to ride Aurea Fortuna again? ( Chase winner over nearly three miles at Punchestown last time, and a hurdles winner over two miles at the Galway Festival.)

If I've got this right, the second - Java Point - and the third - Planned Paradise - from last year's race are running again. I was rather hoping the winner - Transmission - would be taking part.

Herakles Westwood looks a sound-jumping stayer. Trainer Warren Greatrex said that the main aim for the first part of the season would be the Welsh Grand National. " We'll give him a prep run before that. " May not be fully primed for Saturday's race.

An early morning inspection on Saturday may be a clue to Chambard's chances. Almost no worthwhile form since winning the Becher Chase nearly two years ago on very heavy ground. Nearly fourteen years old, and I was expecting him to be retired.
 
Derek O'Connor being considered a good jockey. f%*& me, it really is jumps season.
 
jinnyj said:
So my Just a Rose hasn't been declared but No Drama This End has so he's a pick for me. Haven't checked prices but with Cobden waxing lyrical he's not going to be much of a price
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This is an intriguing race. Will the jolly stay? Will the Nicholls horse be as good as Harry seems to think? I don’t think it would be the first time he and PFN have talked one up that disappointed on the track

And it’s not just a two horse race with Great Fleet lining up off a good run at the Showcase meeting amongst others.
 

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