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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Fast Work 11.42 Newcastle 100-1

You'd look at this initially and totally dismiss the chances of Sue Smith's maiden against several (on paper) useful-looking types.

But...

Two or three opponents may need the experience.
Two or three may not be up to this level anyway.

And Fast Work is an odd one.

SS had an entry for him in last year's Spring Sales. It's rare for Sue Smith to have an entry there. Though not quite unheard of - Midnight Shadow got a run in the 2017 renewal, subsequently winning two Grade 2 hurdles against no less than Ch'tibello and Wholestone!

FW never made it to that Newbury race. Possibly they over-estimated ability, and it wasn't apparent in the early bumpers, so they took a pull. Maybe they just decided he was ready to go over hurdles a bit earlier. n other reasons.

But in one of the bumpers, he ran 3rd to Bespoke Tailor. That wouldn't have been strong-looking form at the time, but Bespoke Tailor ran exceptionally well against Soldier Reeves at Cheltenham a couple of weeks ago. Supreme-level, maybe????

Two hurdle runs for Fast Work so far haven't shown anything. But if he does have something, it's possible the experience gained so far could give an advantage over a few of these.

And the yard has been in reasonable form. Even old Romeo Brown got his old act together yesterday.

If it's still not the day, I suspect losses will be recovered in future.
 
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I've probably lost my mind, but I can't let this horse run today at 66/1.

Kempton 1.57
Kaladan – 50/1 to 66/1

In the Racing & Football Outlook on 24/06/25, his trainer said the following:

KALADAN
2 b c Hello Youmzain – Moksha
He’s a lovely horse. He’s going to take a bit of time and will be out later on, but he’s my dark horse.

He's run twice, showing enough ability to pass horses and finishing sixth on both occasions. The three runs in three months might well be about getting a mark for next year. Today’s race is a complete unknown: seven of the ten runners are unraced. It’s Kempton in December, so if there’s a good one here, it’s likely to be one of them — but not all of them.

On his Newbury run, he beat a horse rated 69 by 3.5 lengths and was beaten 2.25 lengths by a horse rated 81. It’s fair to assume he ran somewhere in the mid-70s on his second start. If he is a slow-burner and can find another 6lb today, he could run to 80. Can that be said for the seven debutants?

If it doesn’t work out today, I’ll see where he goes first time out next year with a mark, but I have to chance it given the race make-up. Running to 80 should be enough to finish in the first four, and at 66/1 each way, you’ve got a live bet.
 
Peterborough Chase best odds:
Djelo 6/4
Jonbon 7/4
Saint Sam 7/2
Hitman 6/1
Boombawn 9/1
Edwardstone 14/1
Saint Segal 20/1

I can't resist 20s about Saint Segal for this. I don't think he can win really but he must have a better chance than most of these and seems way overpriced......esp' as it's surely more likely than not that Hendo doesn't bottle it with Jonners and he runs at Sandown.
 
13.50 ebony jade 18/1

Going to chance this one based on the following logic. Local trainer, sent off 4/1 last time out but he lost his shoes, open race in general. Also the jockey isn’t too shabby.
 
Robicheaux said:
Kempton 7.40 tomorrow. Fresh looks big at 33s. Last he ran in a class 4 was 5 years ago. He won that over c/d. As we know he was rated in the low 100s. Still running well as recently as last October.
Click to expand...
I've taken my time responding to this rather embarrassing effort🤣. Should never have been that price + yet drifts out to 66s, before trailing home last in a class 4 6f handicap beaten over 30 lengths. I wonder if the trainer was pulled in, or am I still being naive in my advancing years 😏
 
Robicheaux said:
I've taken my time responding to this rather embarrassing effort🤣. Should never have been that price + yet drifts out to 66s, before trailing home last in a class 4 6f handicap beaten over 30 lengths. I wonder if the trainer was pulled in, or am I still being naive in my advancing years 😏
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Racing post said horse had an irregular heartbeat, bled from the nose and finished lame! Don’t beat yourself up! Sounds like the horse is lucky to be alive!! 😂
 
Green Book 1.20 Sandown Saturday 22/1 Bet 365
Has not raced for approx 2 years after a series of injuries.
Races off the same mark as his previous win here at Sandown and with the stable starting to fire a big run is anticipated.
 
L'astroboy 2.25 Sandown tomorrow 40/1

Has been very lightly raced after a series of injuries.
His form in a grade 1 here reads very well and if he is back to somewhere near his best he could make a mockery of these odds.
A speculative selection at attractive odds.
 
Desijo said:
L'astroboy 2.25 Sandown tomorrow 40/1

Has been very lightly raced after a series of injuries.
His form in a grade 1 here reads very well and if he is back to somewhere near his best he could make a mockery of these odds.
A speculative selection at attractive odds.
Click to expand...

My main bet in the race (could only get 28/1) so let's hope it lives up to our hopes, Desijo.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Thanks, reet, but Hills won't let me bet with them.
Click to expand...

I had a look at the RP ratings for the Welsh National last night. These are the top 12.

Screenshot (408).png

If the top weight stands its ground the second on that screenshot is going to be some way out of the weights even if it makes the cut. Rock My Way is one of the favourites so I'm assuming Tommie Beau is the wrong price at 100/1.

Knowing I can't back it with Hills (the only firm going the odds) online I decided to take a wee detour from my thrice-weekly visit to Aldi via the local shop, the first time I have tried to place a bet in a shop for some years.

I'm wondering if my experience is the way it is everywhere?

There was a time the counterhand would look at the slip and say, "I need to phone Head Office for this."

The lad behind the counter seemed not to know the first thing about the sport. I wrote out my slip for Tommie Beau and asked quietly for the 100/1. He put the slip through the machine and handed it back to me.

I said, "Do you not need to put the odds on the slip?"

"Oh, do you want the odds?"

"Yes, please, 100/1."

He went on to his machine and after about ten minutes said, "I'm not seeing that race on here."

This doddering old technophobe had to walk him through the process:

Ante-post > National Hunt > ...

"Is it that race next week?"

"No."

"Is it the King George..."

"No," I hastily interrupted, it's after that. Keep scrolling..."

"Is it... no... ah, here it is..."

"Tommie Beau...Tommie Beau...Tommie Beau... I'm not seeing it... Ah, there it is..."

That's about twenty minutes of my life I'll never get back. Tommie Beau should at least do the decent thing and pay me for it.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I had a look at the RP ratings for the Welsh National last night. These are the top 12.

View attachment 24672

If the top weight stands its ground the second on that screenshot is going to be some way out of the weights even if it makes the cut. Rock My Way is one of the favourites so I'm assuming Tommie Beau is the wrong price at 100/1.

Knowing I can't back it with Hills (the only firm going the odds) online I decided to take a wee detour from my thrice-weekly visit to Aldi via the local shop, the first time I have tried to place a bet in a shop for some years.

I'm wondering if my experience is the way it is everywhere?

There was a time the counterhand would look at the slip and say, "I need to phone Head Office for this."

The lad behind the counter seemed not to know the first thing about the sport. I wrote out my slip for Tommie Beau and asked quietly for the 100/1. He put the slip through the machine and handed it back to me.

I said, "Do you not need to put the odds on the slip?"

"Oh, do you want the odds?"

"Yes, please, 100/1."

He went on to his machine and after about ten minutes said, "I'm not seeing that race on here."

This doddering old technophobe had to walk him through the process:

Ante-post > National Hunt > ...

"Is it that race next week?"

"No."

"Is it the King George..."

"No," I hastily interrupted, it's after that. Keep scrolling..."

"Is it... no... ah, here it is..."

"Tommie Beau...Tommie Beau...Tommie Beau... I'm not seeing it... Ah, there it is..."

That's about twenty minutes of my life I'll never get back. Tommie Beau should at least do the decent thing and pay me for it.
Click to expand...
I've followed you in DO
Managed to get 117/1 with Hills online through oddsboost.
I can normally get on with Hiils.
It's Skybet who limit me with pennies.
Best of luck🤞
 
Desert Orchid said:
I had a look at the RP ratings for the Welsh National last night. These are the top 12.

View attachment 24672

If the top weight stands its ground the second on that screenshot is going to be some way out of the weights even if it makes the cut. Rock My Way is one of the favourites so I'm assuming Tommie Beau is the wrong price at 100/1.

Knowing I can't back it with Hills (the only firm going the odds) online I decided to take a wee detour from my thrice-weekly visit to Aldi via the local shop, the first time I have tried to place a bet in a shop for some years.

I'm wondering if my experience is the way it is everywhere?

There was a time the counterhand would look at the slip and say, "I need to phone Head Office for this."

The lad behind the counter seemed not to know the first thing about the sport. I wrote out my slip for Tommie Beau and asked quietly for the 100/1. He put the slip through the machine and handed it back to me.

I said, "Do you not need to put the odds on the slip?"

"Oh, do you want the odds?"

"Yes, please, 100/1."

He went on to his machine and after about ten minutes said, "I'm not seeing that race on here."

This doddering old technophobe had to walk him through the process:

Ante-post > National Hunt > ...

"Is it that race next week?"

"No."

"Is it the King George..."

"No," I hastily interrupted, it's after that. Keep scrolling..."

"Is it... no... ah, here it is..."

"Tommie Beau...Tommie Beau...Tommie Beau... I'm not seeing it... Ah, there it is..."

That's about twenty minutes of my life I'll never get back. Tommie Beau should at least do the decent thing and pay me for it.
Click to expand...
That made me laugh.sounds right.ive had the same experience.
Takes me back also to the day of the gold cup when the tote had a bus going round with big pictures of Denman and Kauto star on the side.i phoned the tote and asked for a price on Denman and she said "what race is it in"
 
The shop staff nowadays are often minimum wage school leavers, I feel sorry for them.
Mind you I do miss the cut and thrust of the regulars trying to get one over the settler!

Mind you think it’s probably been 5 years since I was in a shop.
 

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