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The 2025 December Gold Cup Handicap Chase

jinnyj said:
You're not wrong there - Chads is prime red trouser land! There will be a lot of braying going on behind car boots. We're not like that down here in the West Country so much - you can drive a tractor into my town, park up on the double yellow lines and pop into the Co-op in a pair of wellies caked with mud and nobody bats an eyelid.
But have no fear! Gordon and I will protect you although I suspect G is secretly harbouring a wish to be "Blue Micc'd" - I on the other hand have an alternative suggestion as to where the Blue Mic could be inserted!
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No way do I wish to be Blue Micc’d my problem would be if they interview you Jinnyj think that you might let them have both barrels 💪💪
 
What chance Hoe Joly Smoke
Same mark as when finishing third to its stable companion Panic Attack.
Harry Skelton had ridden it in all of its eleven previous starts but Kielan Woods took the ride and gave the horse a lot to do.
Harry back on board and we all know they like to target these big Saturday handicaps.
 
I used to track Panic Attack when Pipe had her and I always had her down as a 3m plus mare, born out by her Hennessy win. For that reason I think the PP was a bad renewal for her to be able to score and so I'd be against HJS and Vincenzo.
 
Euronymous said:
I used to track Panic Attack when Pipe had her and I always had her down as a 3m plus mare, born out by her Hennessy win. For that reason I think the PP was a bad renewal for her to be able to score and so I'd be against HJS and Vincenzo.
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I'd agree in the main. Vincenzo didn't do much wrong so I can't really see how he can improve much on what he did there. However Chaumi pointed out to me when we were down at the course that he thinks Joe holy smoke was unlucky. Having watched the replay I tended to agree he made a mistake at a vital time and when he went to make his run a gap closed on him and stopped his momentum. That said my main concern here for him would be drying ground I can't see it being much worse than gd-sft looking at the forecast and as he has form over 3 miles and the way he ran in the Paddy power leads me to think that he probably needs testing ground in a race like this to bring the trip back to him a bit. I could be wrong but if he finds everything happening a bit quick for him on Saturday I wouldn't be too quick to write him off as I think there is still some juice in his mark. I'd probably have similar worries for Colonel Harry he seemed to hit a flat spot in the Sefton and looked beat a few furlongs out before staying on well to win. Despite the low numbers I think it's an interesting race and I could make a half decent case for a fair few of them just hoping I've bet the right ones.
 
Danny said:
I'd agree in the main. Vincenzo didn't do much wrong so I can't really see how he can improve much on what he did there. However Chaumi pointed out to me when we were down at the course that he thinks Joe holy smoke was unlucky. Having watched the replay I tended to agree he made a mistake at a vital time and when he went to make his run a gap closed on him and stopped his momentum. That said my main concern here for him would be drying ground I can't see it being much worse than gd-sft looking at the forecast and as he has form over 3 miles and the way he ran in the Paddy power leads me to think that he probably needs testing ground in a race like this to bring the trip back to him a bit. I could be wrong but if he finds everything happening a bit quick for him on Saturday I wouldn't be too quick to write him off as I think there is still some juice in his mark. I'd probably have similar worries for Colonel Harry he seemed to hit a flat spot in the Sefton and looked beat a few furlongs out before staying on well to win. Despite the low numbers I think it's an interesting race and I could make a half decent case for a fair few of them just hoping I've bet the right ones.
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Skelton wrote on Monday re Joe Holy Smoke on ATR:
"The forecast looks to be working out for him, there's not too much rain around so the ground should be perfect he'll have no excuses"
Mind you he is not averse to putting punters away is he?
 
Barnestormer said:
Skelton wrote on Monday re Joe Holy Smoke on ATR:
"The forecast looks to be working out for him, there's not too much rain around so the ground should be perfect he'll have no excuses"
Mind you he is not averse to putting punters away is he?
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is it on the new course which puts more stamina on the trip
 
luckyme said:
is it on the new course which puts more stamina on the trip
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​

Going/Tracks​

Good to Soft (Soft in places)

(New Course)

Going Stick 6.0 on Thu 14:00pm

Rails: Chase bend rail +5y Hurdle bend rail +4y

  • 12:10pm: Race distance is now +25y to 2m 204y
  • 12:40pm: Race distance is now +62y to 3m 1f 118y
  • 1:15pm: Race distance is now +46y to 2m 4f 173y
  • 1:50pm: Race distance is now +46y to 2m 4f 173y
  • 2:25pm: Race distance is now +31y to 2m 93y
  • 3:00pm: Race distance is now +50y to 3m 43y
  • 3:35pm: Race distance is now +37y to 2m 4f 93y
Low sun could result in obstacle omission at this fixture

Weather​

34.5mm rainfall Friday - Tuesday. Dry on Wednesday and forecast to be dry on Thursday. Light showers possible on Friday morning (1-2mm) with sunny spells during the afternoon (10 degrees). Dry forecast for racing on Saturday.
 
Hoe Hoe Hoe

Has been held up at the back of all/most of the recent 3 mile/3+ races. They tried to do the same in the PP, and it appears the effort needed to close in that race from the back contributed to the mistake - a mistake that possibly cost 2nd place.

It'll be interesting to see if Skelton tries a change and attempts to force it from near(er) the front, like he did in the Sandown 3 miler Dec 24 where I think (can't get the video) he had it won 3 or 4 out.

If it wasn't such pathetic odds, you might be thinking this is a Skelton Christmas gift.



It seems likely Martator will go from the back and try to run through. At 16s, that appeals most to me. Suspect that pricing is set based on (most of) VWs runners in the last 6 weeks or so. But it could be false..nearly everything has needed the run if coming in fresh (except the - probably classy - French hurdler and two other proper top of the tree chasers). Martator won't need it.
 
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You really think Joe's price is that bad chaumi ? Don't really know how you could expect bigger tbh. Paddy power also rans have a good record in this in the past and i'd definitely say he'd be the one from that paddy power id see as holding the best chance. I suppose you could say Il rodito and Es Perfecto could run a better races on better ground but I'd still say Given Skeltons winning everything currently i can't see how you could of expected Joe to be much bigger.
 
OFC, we'll all be different on what we think makes a fair price, Dan. For me, it's just an overall picture that's formed in context. Don't think it through as such, it's like driving or riding a bike, init.

If I thought 5-1 was fair, and Hoe really only had 1-3 to beat, I might well be all over it (well, have it for a bit of fun in an interesting race).

But there are plenty of shots every day, every week that go off at wildly bigger prices than their true - or perceived - chances really are...take the Moore handicap hurdler today at 32 or the Pauling bumper winner at 16 as reasonably good examples.

In this race Sat, I could name 7 or 8 that (I think) could win it. Even 'down' to and including GA Law. Put another way, what could you actually hard rule out from winning it (in other words, after the race you're thinking 'well, I couldn't have seen that in a million years).

So, at 5s...even if Dan (S) comes down my chimney tonight singing 'One More Sleep' and chanting '5-1 is my gift to you' as part of the chorus...I will likely tell him 'thx Dan, but you're having a laugh mate, it should be 6 or 7-1 the field minimum'.

Might put it in a placepot, though, or even a combi 1-2-3 if an expert happens to name which three others are likely to challenge Hoe at the last for the first 4 home.


PS Just to be clear in case it comes across the wrong way - I am in no way intending to judge or implying judgment of anyone who does believe 4 or 5-1 is fair in a race of this type. If Hoe pisses it, it will look like one of the easiest 5-1s of the season. And heartfelt congratulations will be due to anyone that availed.
 
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As I recall, the principals in the Mackeson, bar Vincenzo, came from well off the pace which leads me to believe he could well confirm the form with everything else off a less forceful ride.

That's not to say he will win, though. I disagree with Euro's opinion that it wasn't a great renewal but I do think this is a hotter race.
 
chaumi said:
OFC, we'll all be different on what we think makes a fair price, Dan. For me, it's just an overall picture that's formed in context. Don't think it through as such, it's like driving or riding a bike, init.

If I thought 5-1 was fair, and Hoe really only had 1-3 to beat, I might well be all over it (well, have it for a bit of fun in an interesting race).

But there are plenty of shots every day, every week that go off at wildly bigger prices than their true - or perceived - chances really are...take the Moore handicap hurdler today at 32 or the Pauling bumper winner at 16 as reasonably good examples.

In this race Sat, I could name 7 or 8 that (I think) could win it. Even 'down' to and including GA Law. Put another way, what could you actually hard rule out from winning it (in other words, after the race you're thinking 'well, I couldn't have seen that in a million years).

So, at 5s...even if Dan (S) comes down my chimney tonight singing 'One More Sleep' and chanting '5-1 is my gift to you' as part of the chorus...I will likely tell him 'thx Dan, but you're having a laugh mate, it should be 6 or 7-1 the field minimum'.

Might put it in a placepot, though, or even a combi 1-2-3 if an expert happens to name which three others are likely to challenge Hoe at the last for the first 4 home.


PS Just to be clear in case it comes across the wrong way - I am in no way intending to judge or implying judgment of anyone who does believe 4 or 5-1 is fair in a race of this type. If Hoe pisses it, it will look like one of the easiest 5-1s of the season. And heartfelt congratulations will be due to anyone that availed.
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Fairly much agree with all that Chaumi wouldnt be running out to back him at his current price myself but its where i'd of expected him to be in the market. But fully agree with most of these are in with a shout.
 
Euronymous said:
Did he say anything about Country Mile in the 2m race?
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2.25 - Cheltenham - Country Mile​

Country Mile is a very talented horse, although it's not easy to keep him at his best. We're spacing his races out a bit more now, and he's bringing some nice novice form into this handicap chase - that'll give him a chance here. But he is one of the least experienced, so we've got to get him in there and get him competing. He has won at this track before which is why I thought it was a sensible move to get him back here to give him his best chance.
 

1.50 - Cheltenham - Hoe Joly Smoke​

Hoe Joly Smoke runs in the big race of the day here, and I think the track will suit him. He finished third the last day here in what was a great run and I think the new track will suit him even more. I'm very happy with the work he's done at home; he's jumped beautifully this week and, again, there aren't really any negatives to say about him... I'm looking forward to it.
 
chaumi said:
a combi 1-2-3 if an expert happens to name which three others are likely to challenge Hoe at the last for the first 4 home.
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Bad news on this front, sadly.

Your Favourite Uncle Smart Arse jealously guards the value of his Trifecta and Exacta dividends and has decided to cease putting up any more combination bets.

As stated, YFUSA considers this an open contest, would just about give Colonel Harry a 5/1 favourite's chance and labelled 17/2 with the William Hill Orgsnisation as "fair."

Those odds appear to have gone now, but the beast is available to even bigger to the usual advance machine buttons.

Find two to go with the good Colonel and your Christmas is funded.

But, even though he's long since funded his own Christmas (and the next few Yuletides besides), YFUSA rather hopes most punters won't alight on the same trio as himself.

With pool bets, to paraphrase Gore Vidal: "It is not enough to succeed. Others must FAIL."
 

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