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The 2025 King George VI Chase

reet hard said:
Maybe I'm missimigg something,but 11/4 Gaelic Warrior is a barmy price.
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Personally I'd still come down on the side of Fact to File if they both run which I'd be more concerned atm that GW might not turn up. I'm absolutely kicking myself for not taking the 12's about Fact to file when everyone else seemed to be presuming he wouldn't run but I thought myself if it was down to JP's team then he was always coming here rather than go back to Leopardstown and face GDC again. Its not very often I fall foul of failing to pull the trigger but it is what it is.

I will say this though as Archipenko went through them the other day so did I and you can, make very reasonable arguments for Jango Baie, The juke box man, Djelo, Banbridge and who ever else and in doing so it can lead to some confusion about if there is any value in betting any of them. When I sat back and thought about it it became simpler. When I saw what Fact to file did in the Ryan air, and what Garlic Warrior did in the Bowl it convinced me that they were top class. When I saw them in the Durkan together when the taps were fully turned on ( the only time you can truly see how good a horse is) they both looked very special even to the opposition who probably couldn't see them as they crossed the line.

So a thought to anybody who backs against them, you are either hoping they don't run close to their best that they don't like Kempton or they fall never a good strategy. If not for that what will if take to beat them at anything near their best ? Imo it'd take the likes of Kauto or Galopin de champs at somewhere near their very best. So as I looked at Jango, Jukebox, Djelo and the rest I looked at their prices and thought would I back that price to say you're the next Kauto or GDC. The answer was no.
 
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Danny said:
Personally I'd still come down on the side of Fact to File if they both run which I'd be more concerned atm that GW might not turn up. I'm absolutely kicking myself for not taking the 12's about Fact to file when everyone else seemed to be presuming he wouldn't run but I thought myself if it was down to JP's team then he was always coming here rather than go back to Leopardstown and face GDC again. Its not very often I fall foul of failing to pull the trigger but it is what it is.

I will say this though as Archipenko went through them the other day so did I and you can, make very reasonable arguments for Jango Baie, The juke box man, Djelo, Banbridge and who ever else and in doing so it can lead to some confusion about if there is any value in betting any of them. When I sat back and thought about it it became simpler. When I saw what Fact to file did in the Ryan air, and what Garlic Warrior did in the Bowl it convinced me that they were top class. When I saw them in the Durkan together when the taps were fully turned on ( the only time you can truly see how good a horse is) they both looked very special even to the opposition who probably couldn't see them as they crossed the line.

So a thought to anybody who backs against them, you are either hoping they don't run close to their best that they don't like Kempton or they fall never a good strategy. If not for that what will if take to best them at anything near their best ? Imo it'd take the likes of Kauto or Galopin de champs at somewhere near their very best. So as I looked at Jango, Jukebox, Djelo and the rest I looked at their prices and thought would I back that price to say you're the next Kauto or GDC. The answer was no.
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GC' a monster,Danny, that's already shown his versatility.
 
Full disclosure - because IMO the King George is a specialist contest which historically various horses have farmed (multiple wins), a bit like the Champion Hurdle, I've got ante-post bets made the best part of a year ago on Banbridge and Il Est Francais.

Things haven't gone well for either since and I've consequently got under the current odds but, with my doubts about some at the head of the market, I've actually not entirely written off either bet.
 
Screenshot of the top Timeform jumpers (so most of the KG field are there) as of last week. I'm sure Banbridge was over 170 after winning last year's race:

1766395849926.png
 
The big story



By Scott Burton



Il Est Francais is ready to put an uninspiring comeback run at Ascot behind him, with trainer Tom George and his son Noel convinced he has turned a corner in the countdown to the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase.

A big-ticket runner at Kempton on the last two Boxing Days, Il Est Francais will be ridden for the first time in public by Harry Cobden, who Tom George revealed would have been aboard in the Ascot Chase last month but for the presence in the line-up of Pic D’Orhy for Paul Nicholls.

James Reveley has ridden Il Est Francais on all but two of his 17 starts over hurdles and fences, but with Richard and Lizzie Kelvin-Hughes having bought out co-owner Nicolas de Lageneste and moved the horse to Tom George from his son Noel's base near Chantilly, Cobden will now take over when the seven-year-old runs in Britain.

“James has done an unbelievable job with the horse, but he’s based in France and the horse is in England,” said Tom George. “Harry has put a lot of work into him, he’s been in schooling and knows him well now.

“It was always said that Harry would probably ride him when he was in Britain, and he would have ridden him at Ascot. There’s no ill-feeling, that was always how it was going to be."
 
It’s a watch, as I said, but I would normally go with a winner since the runner up would usually have given all, whereas the winner might have some more left. Not the case, though, when it’s a nip and tuck battle such as Gaelic Warrior and Fact To File served up last time. Not a fag paper between them, but the worry is that the Grundy/Bustino factor creeps in after such a hard (apparently) race. In that case Jango Baie might take advantage

Given that fag paper, you’d have to say Reet’s 11/4 Gaelic Warrior looks value. The front two are the best horses there and it’s difficult to see past them assuming no after effects from last time.
 
At 20s Il Est Francais is an ew bet for me. Not too bothered about his exploits at Ascot etc. Same horse who has shown up the last 2 Boxing days, won't be far away. Maybe Cobden will set slightly more sensible fractions +save a bit for the finish.
 
Euronymous said:
I am Maximum is 168 like I'm Brad Pitt. They need to shitcan the excessive overrating of the Nash. It's a fcuking glorified Stayers Hurdle these days.
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In that case I'm in the same shitcan, Euro. I think the National is fantastic handicap form, its OR is 170 and I have it on 172 (for being second in the National, an improvement on the 169 I gave when it won.

Mullins has sussed that he wins the National if he send a Gold Cup-level horse for the race 10lbs well in.
 
Nick Rocket is not a Gold Cup level horse though. If he ran in that he'd be lapped. You would never ever ever get a handicapper near the top of the flat ratings.
 
Fact To File has the best form over 3m in the race. Gaelic Warrior is coming to have pressure for the lead. I'm seeing this race completely differently.
 
luckyme said:
The big story



By Scott Burton



Il Est Francais is ready to put an uninspiring comeback run at Ascot behind him, with trainer Tom George and his son Noel convinced he has turned a corner in the countdown to the Ladbrokes King George VI Chase.

A big-ticket runner at Kempton on the last two Boxing Days, Il Est Francais will be ridden for the first time in public by Harry Cobden, who Tom George revealed would have been aboard in the Ascot Chase last month but for the presence in the line-up of Pic D’Orhy for Paul Nicholls.

James Reveley has ridden Il Est Francais on all but two of his 17 starts over hurdles and fences, but with Richard and Lizzie Kelvin-Hughes having bought out co-owner Nicolas de Lageneste and moved the horse to Tom George from his son Noel's base near Chantilly, Cobden will now take over when the seven-year-old runs in Britain.

“James has done an unbelievable job with the horse, but he’s based in France and the horse is in England,” said Tom George. “Harry has put a lot of work into him, he’s been in schooling and knows him well now.

“It was always said that Harry would probably ride him when he was in Britain, and he would have ridden him at Ascot. There’s no ill-feeling, that was always how it was going to be."
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Tom George is hard to be less exuberant,is he.
 
Robicheaux said:
At 20s Il Est Francais is an ew bet for me. Not too bothered about his exploits at Ascot etc. Same horse who has shown up the last 2 Boxing days, won't be far away. Maybe Cobden will set slightly more sensible fractions +save a bit for the finish.
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If he doesn't bleed, round there (he loves Kempton Park) what beats him probably wins it.
 
Euronymous said:
Agree. F2F not a 3 miler imo
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Every possibilty you could be right and I'm 50/50 on that myself. But in Fact to Files defense firstly how many animals in the last 10 years would've beat GDC at Leopardstown ? Also those races were not run at a strong gallop and they basically allowed GDC a very easy time of it in front (taking nothing away from him because he's class) Im sure if they'd made a bit more use of Fact to File early on he'd of faired better on both occasions.
 
The thing with the question of does a horse stay a trip isn't just down to the trip itself. A cart horse will get 3 mile it just does so in its time. Stamina will always be a combination of the speed of the gallop and the trip. This King George by all accounts looks like it is bound to be a strongly run contest with a couple of them who don't tend to hang about. Pace always puts more emphasis on jumping as horses may jump well when not under pressure but any horse when asked to go a stride quicker than he wants to be going will tend to have his jumping tested to the full. The good thing about a race run like that is in my opinion the cream will rise to the top.

The bottom line is this looks like being a great contest and the winner will have to be some horse.
 

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