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Champion Hurdle 2026

A lot hinges on ICH as to who goes where.
Hopefully the ground won't be too soft to spoil the weekend's racing.
I had a dream last night that Tom Lord Hogan wanted to supplement Hopeful Hero ; didn't know whether to laugh or cry.
WPM made an interesting remark last year or the year before when UK Champion trainer.
He said how when the list of injured horses /horses needing veterinary attention reaches him he scans it checking that the "big names " are absent and breathes a sigh of relief when that is the case.
When a big name gets injured it affects the morale and form of the whole stable in his experience.
Might that explain some of the form this season so far and what might Sir Gino's injury do to morale at Seven Barrows ?
 
edgt said:
A lot hinges on ICH as to who goes where.
Hopefully the ground won't be too soft to spoil the weekend's racing.
I had a dream last night that Tom Lord Hogan wanted to supplement Hopeful Hero ; didn't know whether to laugh or cry.
WPM made an interesting remark last year or the year before when UK Champion trainer.
He said how when the list of injured horses /horses needing veterinary attention reaches him he scans it checking that the "big names " are absent and breathes a sigh of relief when that is the case.
When a big name gets injured it affects the morale and form of the whole stable in his experience.
Might that explain some of the form this season so far and what might Sir Gino's injury do to morale at Seven Barrows ?
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luckily for them they have a few more good horses including a potential superstar in the supreme
 
I haven't really had my finger on the pulse of late but you lads mentioning El Fabiolo made me have a fresh look at him and the rest of the field and I can see your point. I posted this over my other place so thought I'd share it.

I was a massive fan of Lossie last season and thought she should have gone for the Champion although the one time I had a bit of a lump on her she fell and that was the end of that Champion hurdle campaign. Over time my enthusiasm but certainly not my affection for her has waned and as much as I'd love to see her do it the truth is I think her mark of 159-160 is as good as she is. That falls just short of the mid 160's mares that have won this and the 170+ boys of years gone by. On top of that there is no real doubt in my mind that she's at her best at 2 and half. So I think Brighterdaysahead may well turn the tables on her over 2 mile this weekend. But she in herself has shown her limitations I was never carried away by her performance at Leopardstown last year. It was clear to me that Stateman never really raised a leg that day, she ran clear and won well, visually impressive but for me the figures never really backed up the performance. She didn't show her best at Cheltenham but to be beat by Golden Ace I couldn't really see any reason she'd reverse that back at the same course in March.

Golden Ace herself, I'd say she was probably 5lbs shy of Stateman on his day she was also 2nd best to Sir Gino on a course that wouldn't suit her as much as Cheltenham. On those 2 performances alone I'd favour her over the majority of the field including the New lion who on all evidence thus far looks mid 150's to 160 horse at best and he's a fella so no allowance. But that still leaves Golden Ace needing a it to be a poor Champion hurdle to win it realistically.

So what's left? You only really have 4 horses left imo, who could be seen to have any sort of realistic chance and all Willies of course.

Poniros maybe full of potential but it's a giant leap from Triumph to Champion even if he did win it on debut, he's interesting at least.

Anzadam, has all the ability I feel to be a champion but on everything I've seen this year there is something wrong between the ears of this fella.

Ballyburn for me on seasonal debut he got caught short of pace against Cashedale lad and Teahupoo and that was over 2m4f. It may well have been a jog and sprint but being out sped by Teahupoo doesn't really scream Champion hurdler and there is no doubt all of his best form thus far is over further. He was campaigned last year as a staying chaser aimed at The 3 miler at the festival. I refuse to believe that Willie had him that wrong and that now he's quick enough to win a Champion hurdle.

Which leads me to the really interesting one in El Fabiolo. He's already scaled the heights needed over fences reaching a OR of 175 with several RPR's in the mid 170's. He's already won an Arkle at the course so no fears there. He reverted to hurdles first time up, tanked through the race made all and one easily from Glen Kiln who just won the Limestone lad and Spillanes who just won the Cotswold Chase. He was very slick at his hurdles very straight forward ride tanking from the front. He's 20/1 for the Champion hurdle a price that can only really be put down to him not coming the usual route, or having the usual profile of a normal Champion Hurdle winner but with Stateman, Sir gino and Constitution Hill all effectively out of the race this is no normal year we have a bunch of mid 150's to 160 horses all with different questions to answer whether in the case of Lossie the trip or BDA the course Or in the New Lions case ability.

The ICH if all turn up is the most interesting race of the season thus far.
 
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From what my poor memory recalls, wasn't Brighterdaysahead completely stopped in running in last seasons CH? When State Man fell? She may well have been coming to the end of her run and wouldn't have beaten State Man but I think would have finished closer to GA.
 
Just my view...

Lossiemouth - has run to about 160 enough times to be reliable at about that rating. Probably suited by further than 2 miles.

The New Lion - OR 159 and, again, probably suited by further.

Constitution Hill - officially 170 OR but no better than 162 the last year including when falling at Aintree when not going to win.

Brighterdaysahead - huge RPR when winning at Leopardstown is a total outlier. Probably very similar to Lossiemouth in terms of ability and best distance.

Golden Ace - can be relied upon to reproduce her 152 rating.

Anzadam - immature the most polite description. Has to find about 10lb but not impossible.

El Fabiolo - has a 168 OR over fences and seems to still have an engine.

Ballyburn - officially rated higher than most of the other geldings but it's hard to see 2 miles as his optimum trip.

All in all, and remembering the mare's allowance, now that Corals have nrnb for championship races, I like the 12/1 ew El Fabiolo in that book. If he flops at the weekend he won't run but a good run will see a price cut for this race. Can see him going off in front and being difficult to peg back.
 
archie said:
Golden Ace - can be relied upon to reproduce her 152 rating.
...
El Fabiolo - has a 168 OR over fences and seems to still have an engine.
...
All in all, and remembering the mare's allowance, now that Corals have nrnb for championship races, I like the 12/1 ew El Fabiolo in that book. If he flops at the weekend he won't run but a good run will see a price cut for this race. Can see him going off in front and being difficult to peg back.
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Just to reinforce the point you imply - GA's male opponents will need to run to 159 to dead-heat with or beat her.

I would be very wary of taking a chaser's rating as manageable over hurdles. I'd take 10lbs off.

Below is a screenshot of the field ordered by RPR and allowing for the mares' allowance. It's obviously taking BDA's best form at face value.

1769455616142.png
 
Just backed El Fabiolo as some bookmakers now going non runner money back Cheltenham festival all races. I hadn't backed him as wasn't certain if he would run here or Aintree, Sandown.

VF x
 
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I know D.O can't see this but I'm not really doing it for his benefit. The take 10lb off for a chaser returning to hurdles is illogical the way he comes to that conclusion, I've read his thoughts on that before and couldn't really be bothered to comment as it should be fairly obvious to all anyway.

D.O view is that the majority of horses improve 10lb from hurdling to chases therefore when they come back to hurdling their ability reduces again. There is a case that some horses are better chasers than hurdlers and visa versa that's not the point I'd be arguing. It's this general improvement of 10lb number that's the problem as there is a more basic explanation for this. A horse most often starts off hurdling and does so more often than not at the age of 5 or 6 I know there are Juveniles but for these purposes the average of 5 or 6 will do. And lets say as an average most horses would have a novice season, and then maybe a season handicapping at most before they go chasing. Sometimes it's just a novice season. But if a horse is thought to be capable of being made up into a chaser it would be rare for horses to spend much longer over hurdles than 2 seasons if they can jump a fence. Usually over hurdles most stick between 2m and 2m4f over those initial couple of years. Then lets say the average age to start Chasing is 6 or 7. Firstly a horse start at those ages will normally go until and average age of 10 so they spend more years jumping fences than they do hurdles and tend to try longer trips as they age factors that lead to improvement in their marks. But the main point here is what age would you say a national hunt horse reaches it's peak? In most cases it's between the ages of 6 and 8. Of course there are horses who peak early and some who flourish later in life but I'd say as an average 6-8 is fair.

So In the main your average national hunt horses who goes from hurdles to fences will spend his prime physical years over the larger obstacles, so is it any wonder they carry on improving by D.O's average of 10lbs. It's more to do with physical improvement than it is to do with the change in obstacles. As I've said earlier there are horses that are better in one discipline than the other. However that's purley down to jumping and should be judged on an individual basis. I'm sure we've all seen horses come back from fences and jump hurdles slow and cumbersome or balloon over them losing time in the air. However on the same hand we've seen horses who return to hurdles and still jump them very slickly. If this is the case to deduct a horse returning from chasing to hurdles 10lb as a rule of thumb borders on the ridiculous. If a horse has reached a level of ability in his peak years over fences, returns to hurdles during this time and is still able to to jump them slickly enough that improvement should reflect in his hurdles mark.

As with all racing, every race is a unique set of circumstances, every horse in it's own way unique and in general in my view to apply any rule of thumb is costly in betting especially when the concept hasn't been thought through for all the different cause and effect.
 
Danny said:
I know D.O can't see this but I'm not really doing it for his benefit. The take 10lb off for a chaser returning to hurdles is illogical the way he comes to that conclusion, I've read his thoughts on that before and couldn't really be bothered to comment as it should be fairly obvious to all anyway.

D.O view is that the majority of horses improve 10lb from hurdling to chases therefore when they come back to hurdling their ability reduces again. There is a case that some horses are better chasers than hurdlers and visa versa that's not the point I'd be arguing. It's this general improvement of 10lb number that's the problem as there is a more basic explanation for this. A horse most often starts off hurdling and does so more often than not at the age of 5 or 6 I know there are Juveniles but for these purposes the average of 5 or 6 will do. And lets say as an average most horses would have a novice season, and then maybe a season handicapping at most before they go chasing. Sometimes it's just a novice season. But if a horse is thought to be capable of being made up into a chaser it would be rare for horses to spend much longer over hurdles than 2 seasons if they can jump a fence. Usually over hurdles most stick between 2m and 2m4f over those initial couple of years. Then lets say the average age to start Chasing is 6 or 7. Firstly a horse start at those ages will normally go until and average age of 10 so they spend more years jumping fences than they do hurdles and tend to try longer trips as they age factors that lead to improvement in their marks. But the main point here is what age would you say a national hunt horse reaches it's peak? In most cases it's between the ages of 6 and 8. Of course there are horses who peak early and some who flourish later in life but I'd say as an average 6-8 is fair.

So In the main your average national hunt horses who goes from hurdles to fences will spend his prime physical years over the larger obstacles, so is it any wonder they carry on improving by D.O's average of 10lbs. It's more to do with physical improvement than it is to do with the change in obstacles. As I've said earlier there are horses that are better in one discipline than the other. However that's purley down to jumping and should be judged on an individual basis. I'm sure we've all seen horses come back from fences and jump hurdles slow and cumbersome or balloon over them losing time in the air. However on the same hand we've seen horses who return to hurdles and still jump them very slickly. If this is the case to deduct a horse returning from chasing to hurdles 10lb as a rule of thumb borders on the ridiculous. If a horse has reached a level of ability in his peak years over fences, returns to hurdles during this time and is still able to to jump them slickly enough that improvement should reflect in his hurdles mark.

As with all racing, every race is a unique set of circumstances, every horse in it's own way unique and in general in my view to apply any rule of thumb is costly in betting especially when the concept hasn't been thought through for all the different cause and effect.
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There are no boring posts from you, Daniel.

I'm not quite as much as a numbers fiend as some, but it has always been my impression that the ORs get a bit inflated over fences compared to hurdles at all levels.

All horses are different, and some are more progressive than others, but I have to fess up to being someone who wouldn't necessarily expect a beast to run to its Chase OR, if reverting to hurdling, if it has never done that number over timber.

But if El Fabiolo delivers at the weekend, he will have shown it can be done - how exciting!
 
Again El Fabilio might not as he's turned 9 now and hasn't shown his peak form since 2024. Like I said it's all down to individual circumstance. Whilst I wouldn't have thought him a 20/1 shot amongst the current line up for the CH I've invested nothing in that opinion. And as for the 12/1 NRNB you can get 8's possibly bigger on the day on Sunday in the without Con hill, Golden Ace, New Lion as well as a host of others market. I know which is the better bet.
 
Mr Vango has been entered for the 3 miles handicap chase at Sandown next Saturday, and also for another race, the twice as valuable 3 miles handicap hurdle, which is unlikely to be run because of a waterlogged track. It might have been an inspired piece of placing if the main aim is still a deep-ground Grand National.
The Irishracing.com website yesterday showed him with a hurdles rating of 123 compared to a chase rating in the 150s. I've checked today, and the BHA have amended his hurdles rating to 143 to go alongside a chase rating of 155. I'm assuming that would be done subsequent to the entry in a handicap hurdle race.
 
Why are they even talking about bringing him back at this stage. Get the horse fixed up and well in himself before trying to say when he'll be back on a track. Another one who should probably never see a raceourse again as much as a shame as that is because he was a tremendous talent.
 

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