I haven't really had my finger on the pulse of late but you lads mentioning El Fabiolo made me have a fresh look at him and the rest of the field and I can see your point. I posted this over my other place so thought I'd share it.
I was a massive fan of Lossie last season and thought she should have gone for the Champion although the one time I had a bit of a lump on her she fell and that was the end of that Champion hurdle campaign. Over time my enthusiasm but certainly not my affection for her has waned and as much as I'd love to see her do it the truth is I think her mark of 159-160 is as good as she is. That falls just short of the mid 160's mares that have won this and the 170+ boys of years gone by. On top of that there is no real doubt in my mind that she's at her best at 2 and half. So I think Brighterdaysahead may well turn the tables on her over 2 mile this weekend. But she in herself has shown her limitations I was never carried away by her performance at Leopardstown last year. It was clear to me that Stateman never really raised a leg that day, she ran clear and won well, visually impressive but for me the figures never really backed up the performance. She didn't show her best at Cheltenham but to be beat by Golden Ace I couldn't really see any reason she'd reverse that back at the same course in March.
Golden Ace herself, I'd say she was probably 5lbs shy of Stateman on his day she was also 2nd best to Sir Gino on a course that wouldn't suit her as much as Cheltenham. On those 2 performances alone I'd favour her over the majority of the field including the New lion who on all evidence thus far looks mid 150's to 160 horse at best and he's a fella so no allowance. But that still leaves Golden Ace needing a it to be a poor Champion hurdle to win it realistically.
So what's left? You only really have 4 horses left imo, who could be seen to have any sort of realistic chance and all Willies of course.
Poniros maybe full of potential but it's a giant leap from Triumph to Champion even if he did win it on debut, he's interesting at least.
Anzadam, has all the ability I feel to be a champion but on everything I've seen this year there is something wrong between the ears of this fella.
Ballyburn for me on seasonal debut he got caught short of pace against Cashedale lad and Teahupoo and that was over 2m4f. It may well have been a jog and sprint but being out sped by Teahupoo doesn't really scream Champion hurdler and there is no doubt all of his best form thus far is over further. He was campaigned last year as a staying chaser aimed at The 3 miler at the festival. I refuse to believe that Willie had him that wrong and that now he's quick enough to win a Champion hurdle.
Which leads me to the really interesting one in El Fabiolo. He's already scaled the heights needed over fences reaching a OR of 175 with several RPR's in the mid 170's. He's already won an Arkle at the course so no fears there. He reverted to hurdles first time up, tanked through the race made all and one easily from Glen Kiln who just won the Limestone lad and Spillanes who just won the Cotswold Chase. He was very slick at his hurdles very straight forward ride tanking from the front. He's 20/1 for the Champion hurdle a price that can only really be put down to him not coming the usual route, or having the usual profile of a normal Champion Hurdle winner but with Stateman, Sir gino and Constitution Hill all effectively out of the race this is no normal year we have a bunch of mid 150's to 160 horses all with different questions to answer whether in the case of Lossie the trip or BDA the course Or in the New Lions case ability.
The ICH if all turn up is the most interesting race of the season thus far.