The 2024 'Should Be Odds-on' Thread

Midair - 6:40 Windsor tomorrow - was persistently denied a clear run last time at Ascot and would certainly have made his presence felt otherwise. He was up in grade and distance for that race and his fourth place gave him his best RPR of 89 which leaves him with a lot in hand over his opposition tomorrow (theoretically). That was a Class 3 race, tomorrow’s is Class 5. 13/8 atm, but should be odds on I reckon - mind you, he’s been odds-on twice before when only managing second.

Went to odds-on, but second again - that’s four times in the last five runs. Not a good record to have.
 
Last edited:
Wednesday, 3.45 - Laurel 10/3 - She went up to 112 for winning the 2022 Sun Chariot (G1) and, after an easy return win last year, was only 10/3 for the Lockinge but she disappointed and hasn’t been seen since. She’s in the Sussex Stakes so is presumably still held in some regard and has been noted positively in recent gallop reports. Moore takes the ride so it looks like they're very serious about this. I don't think she'd have won the Lockinge anyway but if she'd been third or fourth it would put her some way clear of this level.
 
Did you see the Kevin Blake piece (extract below) in ATR last Wednesday,desert?

With so much other great racing to build us up to Royal Ascot and an audience that are not fixated on just one meeting, news that is relevant to the Royal meeting can sometimes fly under the radar. A very good example of this came on Saturday when Emma Berry of the Thoroughbred Daily News posted a video clip of a racecourse gallop involving Inspiral, Lord North and Laurel at Newmarket’s July Course on X. In the work, Inspiral worked well to finish on top of Lord North in the closing stages, but the real story was that Laurel had dropped off that pair from the furlong pole and was eased right down. Bearing in mind that Laurel is the clear ante-post favourite for the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes on the Wednesday of Royal Ascot, it was remarkable that the footage didn’t cause more of a stir and indeed still hasn’t seemed to have had any impact on the betting market.

One doesn’t have to cast their mind too far into the past to remember the sheer pandemonium that followed a poor performance from Constitution Hill in a racecourse gallop prior to the Champion Hurdle to see how much more amplified any sort of Cheltenham-related news is compared to a somewhat similar case such as the above on the Flat. While Constitution Hill was obviously a very short-priced favourite for the Champion Hurdle and one of the biggest stars in the sport, it still puzzles that the Laurel gallop didn’t create more chatter.
 
I did see it, Bj, but it didn't register with me.

The previous weeks' gallops reports in the Weekender (which I only checked this afternoon) use the word 'impressed' regarding Laurel and maybe she just had an off day.

In any event, better that she has an off day on the gallops than on the track ;)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday, 3.45 - Laurel 10/3 - She went up to 112 for winning the 2022 Sun Chariot (G1) and, after an easy return win last year, was only 10/3 for the Lockinge but she disappointed and hasn’t been seen since. She’s in the Sussex Stakes so is presumably still held in some regard and has been noted positively in recent gallop reports. Moore takes the ride so it looks like they're very serious about this. I don't think she'd have won the Lockinge anyway but if she'd been third or fourth it would put her some way clear of this level.
Click to expand...

Just tuning up for something else. Good second without being asked a serious question. I'm a wee bit annoyed but I'll get that money back in due course.
 
Curragh 3.30 - Emily Upjohn 11/4 - clear on all the figures and certainly should be favourite. I did swither about putting her on this thread but on her best form she should be odds-on. My slight concern is that the trip might be on the sharp side but there are no males here as there were in the Eclipse last season, on which form she is entitled to win. A couple of disappointing runs this season require forgiving but Gosden Sr said on TV last week that maybe Meydan in the spring isn’t her time of year and they backed off her after that so her defeat in the Coronation Cup can be forgiven. She’s been noted working well in recent gallop reports so I’m keen to be with her this time. On her very best form that 11/4 would be Christmas six months early.
 
The race comment says she idled once she went three clear. Maybe a combination of that and lack of peak fitness?

Fair play to Bluestocking. She's on a curve and knows how to battle.

Worth supplementing for the Arc if she continues to progress?
 
Overdue a winner.

As I mentioned on the Euros thread, Spain were 1/3 after getting into the final with England v NL still to play. In the outright market Spain are something like 8/11 but they're 6/4 in the 90-minute market.

I think 1/3 was closer to the true price for the outright title during the week and reckon they should be something like 4/6 in 90 minutes this evening.

I don't imagine many would want to follow me in other than maybe some sickness insurance if you're an England fan.

Despite my utter respect for Southgate and the job he's doing, Spain just need to relax and play their game to run rings round England. There is chance Spain will concede but they're more than capable of scoring two or three.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Overdue a winner.

As I mentioned on the Euros thread, Spain were 1/3 after getting into the final with England v NL still to play. In the outright market Spain are something like 8/11 but they're 6/4 in the 90-minute market.

I think 1/3 was closer to the true price for the outright title during the week and reckon they should be something like 4/6 in 90 minutes this evening.

I don't imagine many would want to follow me in other than maybe some sickness insurance if you're an England fan.

Despite my utter respect for Southgate and the job he's doing, Spain just need to relax and play their game to run rings round England. There is chance Spain will concede but they're more than capable of scoring two or three.
Click to expand...
You missed out on BTTS
 
Desert Orchid said:
Overdue a winner.

As I mentioned on the Euros thread, Spain were 1/3 after getting into the final with England v NL still to play. In the outright market Spain are something like 8/11 but they're 6/4 in the 90-minute market.

I think 1/3 was closer to the true price for the outright title during the week and reckon they should be something like 4/6 in 90 minutes this evening.

I don't imagine many would want to follow me in other than maybe some sickness insurance if you're an England fan.

Despite my utter respect for Southgate and the job he's doing, Spain just need to relax and play their game to run rings round England. There is chance Spain will concede but they're more than capable of scoring two or three.
Click to expand...
Good call -easily the better team.
 
Surely Auguste Rodin will start odds on for the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth?

I really don't see where the danger is coming from.
 
Thursday, Nassau Stks - Emily Upjohn 2/1 - I missed the 9/4 but 2/1 is still generous. She should have beaten Bluestocking at the Curragh and that one was the only one to get a sniff of Goliath's arse the other day. She'll appreciate the faster ground here and should outclass what is effectively G2 opposition.
 
I'm afraid Shoemark won't last too long as the Gosden's stable jockey. Dreadful ride. No doubt Big John will excuse him publicly but privately he'll be raging. He wasn't pleased with Hollie Doyle last year but defended her in interviews.

I usually see Shoemark as a positive and he gave EU a fine ride at the Curragh. He maybe wasn't to know she'd idle from the front but he was never further back than midfield that day and went prominent at halfway. This was an absolute shocker today. She was the class horse in the race and should have been able to go prominent early and tuck in.

That has fair put me on the back foot for the week.
 
They were talking about the winner as an Arc horse before and after todays race -I'd be surprised if she wasn't the best horse in the race.She probably won't get her ground at Longchamp but she would be a strong contender for the Breeders Cup.
 
Quite impressive interview from Kieran Shoemark there and I'm now willing to forgive him yesterday's ride.

He also came across as intelligent and articulate and will have a future career in the media if he doesn't decide to go into training.

Now, can somebody tell him how to wear a tie? It looks like it's there to dab his dick after a pish.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Quite impressive interview from Kieran Shoemark there and I'm now willing to forgive him yesterday's ride.

He also came across as intelligent and articulate and will have a future career in the media if he doesn't decide to go into training.

Now, can somebody tell him how to wear a tie? It looks like it's there to dab his dick after a pish.
Click to expand...

And fair play to him, fine ride on Lead Artist there.
 
Cliff time...

I've taken 4/1 Emily Upjohn for tomorrow. This is arguably the weakest G1 she's ever contested. She has a 5lbs advantage on current ORs but started this season another 5lbs higher. Yes, she's quirky and lost the race at the start last time but she ended up not having a hard race and has been freshened up for this.

I think that price is monstrous. I went on to oddschecker to see if I could get evens.
 
Just watched the race. I presume she went long odds on about two out.

Looked like a non-stayer today rather than idling but looked by miles the best horse in the race until the final furlong.

I'm not sure what to make of her now. A tube of Uhu, maybe...

The only comfort is that I didn't go in as heavily as at Goodwood.
 
Back
Top