The 2024 'Should Be Odds-on' Thread

Midair - 6:40 Windsor tomorrow - was persistently denied a clear run last time at Ascot and would certainly have made his presence felt otherwise. He was up in grade and distance for that race and his fourth place gave him his best RPR of 89 which leaves him with a lot in hand over his opposition tomorrow (theoretically). That was a Class 3 race, tomorrow’s is Class 5. 13/8 atm, but should be odds on I reckon - mind you, he’s been odds-on twice before when only managing second.

Went to odds-on, but second again - that’s four times in the last five runs. Not a good record to have.
 
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Wednesday, 3.45 - Laurel 10/3 - She went up to 112 for winning the 2022 Sun Chariot (G1) and, after an easy return win last year, was only 10/3 for the Lockinge but she disappointed and hasn’t been seen since. She’s in the Sussex Stakes so is presumably still held in some regard and has been noted positively in recent gallop reports. Moore takes the ride so it looks like they're very serious about this. I don't think she'd have won the Lockinge anyway but if she'd been third or fourth it would put her some way clear of this level.
 
Did you see the Kevin Blake piece (extract below) in ATR last Wednesday,desert?

With so much other great racing to build us up to Royal Ascot and an audience that are not fixated on just one meeting, news that is relevant to the Royal meeting can sometimes fly under the radar. A very good example of this came on Saturday when Emma Berry of the Thoroughbred Daily News posted a video clip of a racecourse gallop involving Inspiral, Lord North and Laurel at Newmarket’s July Course on X. In the work, Inspiral worked well to finish on top of Lord North in the closing stages, but the real story was that Laurel had dropped off that pair from the furlong pole and was eased right down. Bearing in mind that Laurel is the clear ante-post favourite for the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes on the Wednesday of Royal Ascot, it was remarkable that the footage didn’t cause more of a stir and indeed still hasn’t seemed to have had any impact on the betting market.

One doesn’t have to cast their mind too far into the past to remember the sheer pandemonium that followed a poor performance from Constitution Hill in a racecourse gallop prior to the Champion Hurdle to see how much more amplified any sort of Cheltenham-related news is compared to a somewhat similar case such as the above on the Flat. While Constitution Hill was obviously a very short-priced favourite for the Champion Hurdle and one of the biggest stars in the sport, it still puzzles that the Laurel gallop didn’t create more chatter.
 
I did see it, Bj, but it didn't register with me.

The previous weeks' gallops reports in the Weekender (which I only checked this afternoon) use the word 'impressed' regarding Laurel and maybe she just had an off day.

In any event, better that she has an off day on the gallops than on the track ;)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday, 3.45 - Laurel 10/3 - She went up to 112 for winning the 2022 Sun Chariot (G1) and, after an easy return win last year, was only 10/3 for the Lockinge but she disappointed and hasn’t been seen since. She’s in the Sussex Stakes so is presumably still held in some regard and has been noted positively in recent gallop reports. Moore takes the ride so it looks like they're very serious about this. I don't think she'd have won the Lockinge anyway but if she'd been third or fourth it would put her some way clear of this level.
Click to expand...

Just tuning up for something else. Good second without being asked a serious question. I'm a wee bit annoyed but I'll get that money back in due course.
 
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