What are you backing Today? Part 2

Kabral Du Mathan 3.35 Ascot tomorrow
Is unbeaten in 3 races and the horse he beat last time out at Kempton King William Rufus has just hosed up in a competitive handicap at Ascot
If you can take the form at face value 6/1 may seem a big price around 3.45 tomorrow.
 
Desijo said:
Kabral Du Mathan 3.35 Ascot tomorrow
Is unbeaten in 3 races and the horse he beat last time out at Kempton King William Rufus has just hosed up in a competitive handicap at Ascot
If you can take the form at face value 6/1 may seem a big price around 3.45 tomorrow.
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Looks like a few have taken note
It's in to 7/2 in places.
 
My Silver lining 138 her 12/1 Is down to run in the W national but it usually has a month between races and tomorrow drops into class 3.
Stratton oakmont 315h 10/1 Should give a good account of himself.
Impero335a 14/1 could still have more to offer
Percussion 205h 12/1 I still think there is a good race in him.
Hartur d'arc 300a 14/1
Answering 230th 10/1
 
Some watchable racing today. My tuppenceworth (as written yesterday):

Hay 2.05 - Percussion looks a very solid each-way pop. The second season novices will struggle to improve past him. Credo is worth a win bet too. I’ve never heard of the jockey but he’s had two winners and six placers from just 11 mounts for the yard this season so the trainer must hold him in some regard as value for his claim. As things stand, Credo is 8lbs lower than when third in this race last year and if the claimer is worth anywhere near most of his allowance he must have a chance.

Asc 1.15 - I have reservations about my figure for Solo so I’m going to go with Scarface as the most likely of the second-season novices. The price (11/4) might be marginally generous.

Asc 1.50 - It’s not often outside of the Aintree and Cheltenham festivals that Irish runners outnumber British ones yet the sole rep of the latter group heads the betting and with not that much justification on my figures. O’Neill tried to show off last time and got his backside handed to him on a plate when he couldn’t get past Trelawne but this is a much hotter race. I’m backing Jungle Boogie who ran tremendously well in the Gold Cup, still bang there until a bad mistake three out knocked the stuffing out of him. He was a doubtful stayer that day and there’s nothing of Gold Cup calibre in this field. Rising 11, he’s still lightly raced but they probably need to get some prize money out of him unless they’re aiming for a valuable handicap over here later on.

Asc 2.25 - With not much way of knowing which Botox Has will turn up, 9/4 about Strong Leader looks more than fair but some sickness insurance on the former is also in order, just in case. I also plan to watch carefully how Beauport runs. He won a handicap by massive margins, the type you tend only to get in heavy ground, on good ground last time so I imagine the plan now is to preserve a good mark for the Grand National.

Asc 3.00 - Much has been made of how Victtorino came home in the Hennessy and he got a big mark-up (8lbs) for that but for all he did me a couple of turn last autumn I’ve never been impressed by his jumping, although going right-handed might suit him better. He might even shorten up from 9/4 and is arguably the most likely winner but I’d rather take a chance on Heloy Delabarriere whose French hurdles rating has jumped 17lbs this season – he’s been running very well in G1s – to 166 so he has to be a bet off 139 here. I came unstuck with General En Chef in the Hennessy but the TPD site says all the evidence is that he simply didn’t stay. Heloy Delabarriere hasn’t run over fences sine the early summer but if that improvement can translate back to fences he’s got to be in the mix. I imagine Flegmatik is being trained for another go at the more valuable Kempton race in February; he’s now rated to win that. Two For Gold is a good marker, holding his form well for his age but vulnerable to improvers, the most likely of which are The Changing Man and the selection.

Asc 3.35 - This is a poor level for such a valuable handicap but it is chock full of potential. They finished quite well strung out in the Greatwood which is unusual for a top good-ground handicap and Be Aware was only beaten by arguably the handicap good thing [on its Flat form] Burdett Road. It’s easy to see why he’s favourite here but there are plenty of unexposed types here. I’m not sure I can call Impero a novice as he was running over hurdles two seasons ago but he did miss all of last season. Be that as it may, he’s hit a curve now and looks overpriced at 16/1 so has to be a bet. Go Dante didn’t run its race in the Greatwood and is also overpriced now as a result. Literally any one of this field could win and I wouldn’t put anyone off any of them but I’ll stick with my top two and hope one of the darts lands.
 
I'm with DO on the frenchie in the 3.00, I could do with that winning.

My two against the field in the handicap hurdle are Go Dante and Black Hawk Eagle. The latter might have been plotted for this. Either that, or Kerry Lee has just pitched him way above his grade. We'll see.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Asc 1.15 - I have reservations about my figure for Solo so I’m going to go with Scarface as the most likely of the second-season novices. The price (11/4) might be marginally generous.
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This might be my lucky day. I decided to get ahead with some Christmas cooking and forgot to back Scarface. :)
 
Desert Orchid said:
Asc 1.50 - It’s not often outside of the Aintree and Cheltenham festivals that Irish runners outnumber British ones yet the sole rep of the latter group heads the betting and with not that much justification on my figures. O’Neill tried to show off last time and got his backside handed to him on a plate when he couldn’t get past Trelawne but this is a much hotter race. I’m backing Jungle Boogie who ran tremendously well in the Gold Cup, still bang there until a bad mistake three out knocked the stuffing out of him. He was a doubtful stayer that day and there’s nothing of Gold Cup calibre in this field. Rising 11, he’s still lightly raced but they probably need to get some prize money out of him unless they’re aiming for a valuable handicap over here later on.
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Definitely looking luckier. I got 7/2 JB and the fav got knocked out at the first.
 
Back with a bump with Percussion going too fast up front and fading out of it but to balance that I decided not to back Strong Leader after holding out for a wee drift that didn't materialise. Botox Has never competitive but I was hoping Beauport would hold on. That race ended up a very good one made so by his bold performance up front.
 
A strange run from The Wallpark who was flying at the finish but had got too far back. Suspicion that the jockey thought Strong Leader was the danger and tracked that one for most of the race realising too late that was the wrong strategy
 
Dans le vent 210c was 33s early doors which I missed and so took 12s.
I used to like this horse when it was in the 140s and with her claim its now off 120.
I know its 11 now but off that rating it should be competitive. ( I hope )

I've also done its stablemate can you call 7/1 in the 105c.
 
I've found a nice ew Trixie for today.

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6 Iron Bridge
7/1
Win - 14:50 Chepstow
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9 Lark In The Mornin
8/1
Win - 14:20 Leopardstown
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15 Hgranca De Thaix
9/1
 
I can't believe the price now of Dr T J Eckleburg at Chepstow in the 3.25. He's very capable, in good form, and well enough handicapped too, especially having beaten General Medrano last time, who has won since. I don't think the good doctor has lost a leg, pardon the pun, and 7s is a great price, beforehand anyway.

Frero did me a good turn last time at Newcastle, and he could go close again in the 3.08, but I'm generally looking for sound each way bets today for the super heinz, and Bass Rock will do for those purposes. I remember him from a few years back when over hurdles for a different trainer. I thought he had ability then, so maybe today is the day if he puts it all in over fences.

Staying at Kempton, there's only the 7 runners now in the 2.30. On ratings Traprain Law has a lot to find. I was disappointed with the last days effort. He had his soft ground, which I thought was what he needed, but still ran poorly. Too poorly to be true in fact. Perhaps he's not so ground dependant after all. Don't get me wrong if he was 5/1 against the calibre of this lot, I would completely serve him, but at around the 18/1 mark, I can't let him go. The usual terms and conditions apply, I. E he might need a few to underperform, but all I can say, is there indeed were one or two really good efforts last season, so if you could put a line through the last run, then hope he could actually improve since his last season, he could out run the odds.

That's my ramble for today.
 
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Marb said:
Staying at Kempton, there's only the 7 runners now in the 2.30. On ratings Traprain Law has a lot to find. I was disappointed with the last days effort. He had his soft ground, which I thought was what he needed, but still ran poorly. Too poorly to be true in fact. Perhaps he's not so ground dependant after all. Don't get me wrong if he was 5/1 against the calibre of this lot, I would completely serve him, but at around the 18/1 mark, I can't let him go. The usual terms and conditions apply, I. E he might need a few to underperform, but all I can say, is there indeed were one or two really good efforts last season, so if you could put a line through the last run, then hope he could actually improve since his last season, he could out run the odds.

That's my ramble for today.
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Really interesting race that and it's so much better as a handicap. I can't have Edwardstone or Boothill off their marks and Martator is a worthy fav but I've gone with Sans Bruit. He has a massive weight pull with Venetia's horse from the last time they met but after yesterday with pumpkin (Fire Flyer double with Banbridge and Tahmuras apost at 8s) I'm not that confident.
 
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