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The 2025 Longshot Thread

I can’t resist a small dabble on Shimaleyah in the 7.40 Lingfield. This doesn’t look a strong race with 11 runners, with 4 places and 125/1 available.

Shimalayeh was a slightly unlucky 4th in a maiden 2nd time out, his best piece of form. That looked an OK maiden at the time, but hasn’t proved that good so far. If he has improved from that though, he could be competitive here. There has been a big drift on him, which could be ominous, but the stable had a 50/1 winner earlier in the week, with a horse with a similar profile, which had also drifted significantly (though not as much, and not as early).
 
Coral Eclipse

Camille Pissarro is a best price 10/3 for the French Derby (Chantilly 3.05 Sunday).

Now, I'm not sure this horse wants 10f but he's got every chance from.his draw in stall 1. If he does prove he stays then surely he'll go to Sandown for the Coral Eclipse like St Mark's Basilica. It's hard to see how he is available at 50/1 for Sandown. You'll always want to be on a 3yo in the race and if he wins on Sunday he's far more likely to run in the race then any 3yo ahead of him in the betting.
 
Coral Eclipse

Camille Pissarro is a best price 10/3 for the French Derby (Chantilly 3.05 Sunday).

Now, I'm not sure this horse wants 10f but he's got every chance from.his draw in stall 1. If he does prove he stays then surely he'll go to Sandown for the Coral Eclipse like St Mark's Basilica. It's hard to see how he is available at 50/1 for Sandown. You'll always want to be on a 3yo in the race and if he wins on Sunday he's far more likely to run in the race then any 3yo ahead of him in the betting.

Right. He gets the trip but Aidan said he could go back to a mile as well. The only race he mentioned by name was the Eclipse. The key he is how Aidan stressed what an important sire prospect he is now. The Eclipse is the sire making race. I'd be 1/10 he runs at Sandown now. I wouldn't lay the 10/1 out there.
 
Only caught the replay and I'm kicking myself but it looked like a cracking ride again from Moore.
 
Purest Time 5.40 Epsom Saturday 22/1 W Hill
Was a decent performer in France winning several times.
Had no chance last time out at Chester from a wide draw and trainer Ian Williams does well with type.
I believe this horse was mentioned previously in a thread and apparently he is well regarded by his current stable with the return to 6 furlongs a plus.
 
I've had my eye on Flying Finn in the 3.25 Epsom but really it does look like he'd need softer ground to be at his best. However, at 33/1 with a little juice in the ground, I'm having a tickle for insurance purposes.
 
Epsom 4.15 - The first one I was drawn to was Maxi King, who has had the gelding operation, and could improve a lot for it. He has some half decent form, but it still feels like he's been chucked in the deep end off top weight in a race like this. That said, I wouldn't put anyone off each way, and I'll have a saver on.

However, my main longshot is Torcello. This horse has been a grand old horse for trainer Shaun Lycett. He's 11 years old now, but it's encouraging that's he's been lightly raced in recent seasons. He's an excellent win strike rate of 25 percent, and a lot of those races were run in the mud. He's won at Epsom, so I just think he's well overpriced at 40/1 tomorrow.
 
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1.00 Epsom - Kindest Nation has plenty to find on the book to be competitive in a tricky looking contest. However she will greatly appreciate all this forecast rain and can run better than her odds suggest. 66/1 with 4 places ( 365/Sky ) 1.5pt EW & 22/1 Top 3 finish ( 365 ) 2pts

I've tipped this one on Twitter also ....................... I reckon by the first race the going is going to be close to soft, Kindest Nation is a filly that has won on Heavy in the past, she will need a huge career best to take a hand in the finish, but the going at times can be a great leveller, and whilst it is difficult seeing her win the race - there has to be value in the suggested bet. I would personally make her a 33/1 chance to win with 3 Places on offer - the Place part equating to 6.6/1 ( 33/5 ) ..... 66/1 equates to 13.2/1 and an extra Place with the two mentioned bookies ...... 22/1 for anywhere in the Top 3 is simply wrong in my calculations.

Kindest Nation is a good value speculative play - win lose or draw.

Be Lucky If You Play.
 
1.00 Epsom - Kindest Nation has plenty to find on the book to be competitive in a tricky looking contest. However she will greatly appreciate all this forecast rain and can run better than her odds suggest. 66/1 with 4 places ( 365/Sky ) 1.5pt EW & 22/1 Top 3 finish ( 365 ) 2pts

I've tipped this one on Twitter also ....................... I reckon by the first race the going is going to be close to soft, Kindest Nation is a filly that has won on Heavy in the past, she will need a huge career best to take a hand in the finish, but the going at times can be a great leveller, and whilst it is difficult seeing her win the race - there has to be value in the suggested bet. I would personally make her a 33/1 chance to win with 3 Places on offer - the Place part equating to 6.6/1 ( 33/5 ) ..... 66/1 equates to 13.2/1 and an extra Place with the two mentioned bookies ...... 22/1 for anywhere in the Top 3 is simply wrong in my calculations.

Kindest Nation is a good value speculative play - win lose or draw.

Be Lucky If You Play.

Also with Bet365 they have a Free £10 bet offer on that first race at Epsom ........ bet Ten receive it back in Free Bet Credits
 
Epsom 1.35 - Cairo 25/1 - third top on my figures and seemingly has improved for Alice Haynes so probably should be a single-figure price. Plus, I have reservations about my top-rated in the race.
 
I've had my eye on Flying Finn in the 3.25 Epsom but really it does look like he'd need softer ground to be at his best. However, at 33/1 with a little juice in the ground, I'm having a tickle for insurance purposes.
And me.
 
Epsom 2.45 - Desert Cop 20/1, five places - I mentioned before how some of the Bahrain form is under-rated and I think this is another example. It looks to me like the new trainer, who is local to the track, has got this one back to his best and that would probably be good enough to win. -

Edit - same race, One Night Stand 50/1, 5 places - has worked its way back down to a mark 4lbs lower than when winning a race last season and is drawn near the stands' rail.
 
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Derby outsiders:

I went through the field last night and noted all the dosage profiles and stride patterns for which I could find the info. I decided to back all the outsiders with ticks in both boxes. They might just plod into a top ten finish but it's not unusual these days for a three-figure shot to get a place - I know, I've backed a couple - so I've backed these, all to four places:

Lazy Griff 50/1
Nightime Dancer 150/1
Green Storm 200/1
Rogue Impact 300/1
 


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