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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Redcar 4.35 - Penzance 35/1 (28/1, 4 places Sky) - I'm not convinced he needs a synthetic surface to show his form, the best of which entitles him to win. I can't say it's a confident bet even for a place but it is my main one in the race. I'll settle for the place return if that's what happens.
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Backed into 14/1 and I was very encouraged to see it ridden prominently but it couldn't quicken when it needed to and then had nowhere to go and was looked after. I'm not sure the jockey really asked it to quicken so I'm wondering what it's being aimed at given that this was a £40k race.
 
Ballinrobe 7.00 She is Electric 20/1


10yo but only 14 rules races. I had her marked down as talented but she's been off and thrown a mare but is now back hurdling. This is, remarkably, her first handicap and I reckon she may be well in.
 
yorick said:
Ballinrobe 7.00 She is Electric 20/1


10yo but only 14 rules races. I had her marked down as talented but she's been off and thrown a mare but is now back hurdling. This is, remarkably, her first handicap and I reckon she may be well in.
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Two NRs ... Rule 4 and 7 runners put a slightly different complexion on the bet.
On the positive side, she now has only six rivals and she's still 18/1.
 
Well, faded after being up there for some time. It may be she needed the run. I'm not perturbed; I reckon she's well handicapped.
 
And again! a 10 runner field ew for 3 places now three NR's, down to 7 runners, two places.

Every effing time. How long can this chicanery carry on?!?!?!
 
Saturday, York 2.40 - Bond Chairman 25/1 - bombed last season but has moved to Geoff Oldroyd who appears to be very selective - and very successfully so - in placing his horses. Chucked in on its old form and might even need a rise to get into the Ascot race.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, York 2.40 - Bond Chairman 25/1 - bombed last season but has moved to Geoff Oldroyd who appears to be very selective - and very successfully so - in placing his horses. Chucked in on its old form and might even need a rise to get into the Ascot race.
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Nice one!
Corals offer 25s and 4 places, for anyone interested
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, York 2.40 - Bond Chairman 25/1 - bombed last season but has moved to Geoff Oldroyd who appears to be very selective - and very successfully so - in placing his horses. Chucked in on its old form and might even need a rise to get into the Ascot race.
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Pocklington - rated 96 - is another Geoff Oldroyd horse in the same ownership. His last run was over five and a half furlongs at the Ebor meeting when finishing 10th of 22 ( 25/1) when the first five all raced on the far side of the track. I've been keeping an eye out for him ever since and at least I haven't missed a winner ( hopefully ).
" Raced near side, raced in last, slightly hampered over 1f out, ran on well inside final furlong, nearest finish, eyecatcher, 3rd of 11 in group. "

His race prior to York was 10th of 14 ( 40/1 ) in the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, beaten a couple of places by Starlust, the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint winner.
 
Copied from the Derby thread:

I've no idea if the intention is to run but I've taken some 66/1 about Luther.

Not beaten far behind Henri Matisse at Longchamp, form which has been franked, he is bred to come into his own at a minimum of 12f so even modest improvement should effectively put him in with a very strong chance.
 
Chester 2.10

Despite his finishing position last time when 8th, Kingdom Come ran a lot better than he did at Thirsk the previous outing, racing prominently but then just weakening in the final furlong. I think based on that evidence, he's interesting now dropped to 7 furlongs. I'll probably be in the minority, as the fact he's never won on turf will put people off, but I think he's a good each way chance anyway.
 
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The Fortune Teller said:
Chester 2.10

Despite his finishing position last time when 8th, Kingdom Come ran a lot better than he did at Thirsk the previous outing, racing prominently but then just weakening in the final furlong. I think based on that evidence, he's interesting now dropped to 7 furlongs. I'll probably be in the minority, as the fact he's never won on turf will put people off, but I think he's a good each way chance anyway.
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I hope you are right. He has run OK on turf, without matching his AW ratings and I think he is overpriced, probably because he’s never won on turf.
 
He hasn't got a great draw in stall nine. He should stay the 7F well enough so hopefully there'll be positive tactics tomorrow and race prominently from the get go. If he's slow out the gate, I'll know my fate pretty soon I reckon.
 
In May 2023 and May 2024, Michael Dods managed 16 wins at a 20% strike rate. Only once has he surpassed 16 wins in a month in his entire training career. This May he has managed a solitary victory from 59 attempts and that was on the first day of the month. Paul Mulrennan hasn’t ridden a winner for him so far this year.

So the stats aren’t good ahead of the 1.48 at Haydock tomorrow, where amongst Dods 4 entrants, I am drawn to Bosh (the longest price of the 4). A very consistent horse when trained by Richard Hannon, including 2 narrow defeats off 93, he has had 3 runs for Dods and dropped 6lbs. I think he can do some damage off this mark and hope it is tomorrow.

He’s been 40/1 for most of the day, but 33/1 is almost gone now and generally 28/1 now.

Whatever he does tomorrow, he’s one for my tracker, perhaps when the Dods stable is going well.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Newbury 3.45 - Purest Time 33/1, 4 places - makes his debut for Ian Williams who has a very good record in this type of race at the track, operating at close to 20% for the last 10 years.
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Engaged tomorrow, 2.10 Chester, 50/1, 4 places. Got to be worth a pop again. The high draw is a worry but there has to be a chance they'll just scratch it but Fanning is good round Chester


The Fortune Teller said:
Chester 2.10

Despite his finishing position last time when 8th, Kingdom Come ran a lot better than he did at Thirsk the previous outing, racing prominently but then just weakening in the final furlong. I think based on that evidence, he's interesting now dropped to 7 furlongs. I'll probably be in the minority, as the fact he's never won on turf will put people off, but I think he's a good each way chance anyway.
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Yes, I have him clear top on his AW form and have taken some 33/1. I'm more willing to accept Tapeta form back on turf than Polytrack.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, York 2.40 - Bond Chairman 25/1 - bombed last season but has moved to Geoff Oldroyd who appears to be very selective - and very successfully so - in placing his horses. Chucked in on its old form and might even need a rise to get into the Ascot race.
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Tipped by Rory Delargy in the SL at 12/1.
 
I've just taken 33/1 Estrange for the Arc.

Today's win at Haydock doesn't amount to Arc-winning form but she was mightily impressive and is very lightly raced so potentially loads more to come.
 
There was no mention of being in-foal in any of the interviews there and O'Meara seemed quietly excited about the prospect of her getting there.
 
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