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The 2025 Longshot Thread

Desert Orchid said:
Saturday, 2.35 - Lead Artist 20/1 (B365) - I think this price is seriously wrong. I'm not saying the horse will win but on my figures it only has Rosallion and Notable Speech, both of which make their seasonal debut, to overtake and should be no more than 5/1. It's had a run, albeit a moderate one, and Murphy takes over from the unfortunate Shoemark. Only B365 are going the price at the moment but it allows it to qualify for the thread. Not the main bet, though.
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You're the man DO👍🏻
Well done.
 
Irish 1000 Guineas this Sunday.
As long as any forecast rain doesn't get into the ground.
I think, based on her 2nd in the May Hill. January looks overpriced at 28/1
 
Temple Stakes - Vadream 28/1, 4 places (Betfred) - generally 33s to 3 places but happy to take this price for the extra place. To say she's inconsistent is like saying bears shit in woods but every now and again she shows her form. They've been watering at Haydock and there are rain showers forecast overnight and into tomorrow so there's a chance the ground might not inconvenience her. On my figures her best form of last year has her joint-top and I reckon I'm getting 28/1 about her having a going day, which is more than fair as she usually runs her race two or three times a season and her best run last season was here in the Sprint Cup. Nothing ventured and all that cliché crap...
 
Irish 2000G - Comanche Brave 50/1 - only three places going but I think this price is wrong. Officer (OR108) is 10/1 and even Windlord (105) is 'only' 33/1. CB is rated 107 and I think is potentially some way better than that. I think he probably has a similar chance to Rashabar (which I see has been backed into 10s/11s generally, so I presume Pricewise is putting it up). If it turns out FOG isn't over Newmarket and with Moore abandoning Expanded, Scorthy Champ not good enough at Newmarket and Hotazhell not good enough even to be sent there, there is the potential for an upset.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Irish 2000G - Comanche Brave 50/1 - only three places going but I think this price is wrong. Officer (OR108) is 10/1 and even Windlord (105) is 'only' 33/1. CB is rated 107 and I think is potentially some way better than that. I think he probably has a similar chance to Rashabar (which I see has been backed into 10s/11s generally, so I presume Pricewise is putting it up). If it turns out FOG isn't over Newmarket and with Moore abandoning Expanded, Scorthy Champ not good enough at Newmarket and Hotazhell not good enough even to be sent there, there is the potential for an upset.
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Even though it was me that put Rashabar up. I've had a little on this at 50s. Henri Mattise line looks pretty strong
 
Desert Orchid said:
Irish 2000G - Comanche Brave 50/1 - only three places going but I think this price is wrong. Officer (OR108) is 10/1 and even Windlord (105) is 'only' 33/1. CB is rated 107 and I think is potentially some way better than that. I think he probably has a similar chance to Rashabar (which I see has been backed into 10s/11s generally, so I presume Pricewise is putting it up). If it turns out FOG isn't over Newmarket and with Moore abandoning Expanded, Scorthy Champ not good enough at Newmarket and Hotazhell not good enough even to be sent there, there is the potential for an upset.
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I landed on Comanche Brave too - but not an overly confident selection. Small ew bet. Pricewise hasn’t put anything up for this race in his latest column. He has however picked out Dashing Darcey in the 1.15 Haydock, as has Paul Kealy. I had hoped to put that one on here and he was 22/1 when I had a small amount on him yesterday evening. I was expecting him to drift a bit from that -and was intending to back him again - but he is now best priced 6/1. That is a terrible price. If he disappoints tomorrow (and I kind of hope he does), I still think he is worth keeping an eye on for later in the season.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Temple Stakes - Vadream 28/1, 4 places (Betfred) - generally 33s to 3 places but happy to take this price for the extra place. To say she's inconsistent is like saying bears shit in woods but every now and again she shows her form. They've been watering at Haydock and there are rain showers forecast overnight and into tomorrow so there's a chance the ground might not inconvenience her. On my figures her best form of last year has her joint-top and I reckon I'm getting 28/1 about her having a going day, which is more than fair as she usually runs her race two or three times a season and her best run last season was here in the Sprint Cup. Nothing ventured and all that cliché crap...
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I've also taken Twilight Calls (22/1, 4 places). It's co-second-top on my figures and showed some promise on its first run for its new yard last time.
 
Other longshots today:

Curragh 4.15

No More Porter 25/1, 5 places
Exquisite Acclaim 50/1, 5 places

They're stablemates and jockey arrangements suggest EA is the main hope. NMP is jt-top on my figures and EA is next so I think they are overpriced. They're just savers, though.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Other longshots today:

Curragh 4.15

No More Porter 25/1, 5 places
Exquisite Acclaim 50/1, 5 places

Their stablemates and jockey arrangements suggest EA is the main hope. NMP is jt-top on my figures and EA is next so I think they are overpriced. They're just savers, though.
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I thought No More Porter was quite interesting. Plenty of good efforts at the Curragh (all 3 career wins, 3 2nds and 2 3rds - but 21 of his 44 runs have been here). Was 40/1 this morning, came in to 22/1, but 28/1 now available.

The other one I was interested in was Jessica Harrington’s second string Presence, currently 30/1. He is up 14lb for decisive CD win last October and ran well in Listed race after, without apprentices claim. Decent comeback before disappointing last time out over longer trip. Back to a mile, I think he may run well.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Irish 2000G - Comanche Brave 50/1 - only three places going but I think this price is wrong. Officer (OR108) is 10/1 and even Windlord (105) is 'only' 33/1. CB is rated 107 and I think is potentially some way better than that. I think he probably has a similar chance to Rashabar (which I see has been backed into 10s/11s generally, so I presume Pricewise is putting it up). If it turns out FOG isn't over Newmarket and with Moore abandoning Expanded, Scorthy Champ not good enough at Newmarket and Hotazhell not good enough even to be sent there, there is the potential for an upset.
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I've just got round to watching the race. Comanche Brave was only a neck behind Rashabar at the end so did indeed outrun his odds.
 
Cur 3.05 - Continuous 125/1 - stupid, stupid price. Not saying it will win but it started last season on 120 which, were he still able to run to it, would be deserving of a single-figure price here. He probably can't but I have doubts about some of the others so I think the price is worth some sweetie money and even a place return could bag a whole lot of sweeties.
 
For Bank holiday Monday:

4.35 Redcar. Lord Protector 20/1 was 2nd in this off 7lb higher last year. Bit worried ground might be a bit too lively for him, but worth a go at the price.

3.20 Windsor. 2 horses of interest to me in this. Sommelier is getting very well handicapped and this could be the day for him. Indian Creak is a 5 time CD winner and dropped to a very interesting mark. Trainer seemed to hint this was the plan for him when making his seasonal debut a couple of weeks ago. Currently 33/1.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cur 3.05 - Continuous 125/1 - stupid, stupid price. Not saying it will win but it started last season on 120 which, were he still able to run to it, would be deserving of a single-figure price here. He probably can't but I have doubts about some of the others so I think the price is worth some sweetie money and even a place return could bag a whole lot of sweeties.
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I'm on it also just missed the 150s.
I assume he's in there to set a strong pace, as I think Lis Angeles is vulnerable to someone with a turn of foot over the trip.
Hoping they give him a soft lead. Unlikely, but as you say, he's a ridiculous price.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Cur 3.05 - Continuous 125/1 - stupid, stupid price. Not saying it will win but it started last season on 120 which, were he still able to run to it, would be deserving of a single-figure price here. He probably can't but I have doubts about some of the others so I think the price is worth some sweetie money and even a place return could bag a whole lot of sweeties.
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You’ve moved the market! Best price 66/1 now.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Wednesday, York, 2.42 (WTF!) - Brave Empire 40/1, 5 places - third top on my figures and Marquand looks a positive booking.
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12 days on, Brave Empire is out again at Redcar tomorrow. Wasn’t a bad run at York, 8 length 12th of 16 and lost a shoe on first run for 10 months. Down to Class 4, from class 2 at York. 22/1 available is fair. Admiral D lurks near the bottom of the weights and could be very dangerous. Was 20/1 earlier, but that has now gone.
 
I'm tempted by 28/1 Our Sam in the 3:30 at Carmel (ew four places). Well-weighted on his best form, as evidenced by the fact that he was 11/4 fav to win a similar C&D affair off 115 last August. He has not run well since, but was never involved over a shorter trip last time out. Now racing off 109, first time cheekpieces.
 
Redcar 4.35 - Penzance 35/1 (28/1, 4 places Sky) - I'm not convinced he needs a synthetic surface to show his form, the best of which entitles him to win. I can't say it's a confident bet even for a place but it is my main one in the race. I'll settle for the place return if that's what happens.
 
Generous1991 said:
I'm tempted by 28/1 Our Sam in the 3:30 at Carmel (ew four places). Well-weighted on his best form, as evidenced by the fact that he was 11/4 fav to win a similar C&D affair off 115 last August. He has not run well since, but was never involved over a shorter trip last time out. Now racing off 109, first time cheekpieces.
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For a moment I thought he'd be in the shakeup, faded after the last
 
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