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The 2025 Derby

If we get the rain, I'm not sure it will suit Tornado Alert, but I'm not in the business of putting people off horses at big prices because that's the road to 40/1 Omaha City and Rishi Persad.

If there is one at a colossal price that might outrun its odds, I'd say it is Tuscan Hills, still three figures on the machine last time I looked.

Mojo Star, King Of Steel, don't underestimate this outfit at big prices in this race.

Tuscan Hills wasn't beaten that far in the Dante at York, he's got Soft ground form as a 2yo and the granddam won The Oaks.
 
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If we get the rain, I'm not sure it will suit Tornado Alert, but I'm not in the business of putting people off horses at big prices because that's the road to 40/1 Omaha City and Rishi Persad.

If there is one at a colossal price that might outrun its odds, I'd say it was Tuscan Hills, still three figures on the machine last time I looked.

Mojo Star, King Of Steel, don't underestimate this outfit at prices in this race.

He wasn't beaten that far in the Dante at York, he's got Soft ground form as a 2yo and the granddam won The Oaks.
Bloody hell. That could be 4 in my ew folio now 🤣
 
I wouldn't rule Midak out of it, especially if the rain arrives the next three days.

Sea Bird and Pour Moi won the Greffhule and when you look at the stamina on the dam's side 1m4f on long-term watered ground might suit even better than 1m2f110yds on Good ground at Saint-Cloud.

Barzelona might well lead and, if he audaciously grabs the stands rail after Tattenham Corner, he might want some catching.

He could be a late addition to the thus far all win only "Derbfolio," each-way four places.
 
I have backed Midak myself after looking at the weather forecast for Saturday.
Would be a poignant winner as the race this year is named in honour of the late Aga Khan.
I thought the renaming interesting and wondered if it was a shrewd move to try to attract the family back to having horses in training in Britain. Before the fallout from Aliysa's Oaks disqualification the Aga Khan had 90 horses in training here. He didn't take that decision too well!!
 
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One comment I will add about TLIW is that this softening ground will help any issues with his feet. If he does suffer from corns/bruises then galloping downhill on a soft surface isn't as much of a problem I would have thought.
 
I wondered if the Aga Khan's executors' runner was by way of a 'thank you' to the Epsom exec for honouring him.
 
I'm not suggesting it doesn't have a chance but they supplemented it so the race wasn't on their radar until recently.
I wondered this too. They didn't even have him in any of the French Classics and said his target was the Grand Prix de Paris but they thought they'd use this race on the way. That doesn't sound like a hugely confident plan? I did watch his last race and although he won nicely, the odds on favourite underperformed and the rest didn't look that strong. I'm not saying he didn't win well and he's three from three so improvement is likely.
 
Francis Graffard already had two horses entered in the Grand Prix de Paris so when the Aga Khan's daughter asked him where could they run it next he answered ' why not Epsom'
I think the fact that Mickael Barzalona had trouble pulling the horse up after his last win made up his mind.
 
There's more stamina than you can shake a stick at on the dam's side of Midak's pedigree.

The dam won at 1m6f and he's a half brother to a 2m1f French Hurdles winner.

He was never going to be a Prix Du Jockey Club winner in a million years since they reduced the trip and it's a miracle he won the Greffhule over 1m2f110yds.

The trainer is "shrooder" than Francois Le Shrood, winner of last year's Monsieur Shrood contest in the Paris suburbs, he knew there would be a weather front the size of a Fjord heading directly towards Epsom from Oslo so he's making sure his stamina-laden beast is there to take full advantage. 😂
 
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Stamina alone doesn't win Derbies, though, otherwise there would have been loads of future hurdlers on the roll of honour.

You need something with the pace and balance to be in a good position, the class to be competitive late and the stamina to see it out. I always look at the dosage profiles for this race. Midak's looks okay rather than nailed-on but 20 is a lowish overall score for the figures to be reliable.

DP = 1-1-13-5-0 (20) DI = 0.74 CD = -0.10

Footstepsinthesand never got the chance to prove he'd stay and his best progeny's best ratings were at 7f/1m, with a maximum OR of 121.

More doubts there than in a chainsmoker's ashtray...
 
There's more stamina than you can shake a stick at on the dam's side of Midak's pedigree.

The dam won at 1m6f and he's a half brother to a 2m1f French Hurdles winner.

He was never going to be a Prix Du Jockey Club winner in a million years since they reduced the trip and it's a miracle he won the Greffhule over 1m2f110yds.

The trainer is "shrooder" than Francois Le Shrood, winner of last year's Monsieur Shrood contest in the Paris suburbs, he knew there would be a weather front the size of a Fjord heading directly towards Epsom from Oslo so he's making sure his stamina-laden beast is there to take full advantage. 😂
Hang on a minute ... Is this rain thing becoming a little overdone?
5 mm today.
A little bit more tomorrow and Saturday but not as much as today.
On the parched ground of Surrey.
It'll probably just be regular good ground.
 
Stamina alone doesn't win Derbies, though, otherwise there would have been loads of future hurdlers on the roll of honour.

You need something with the pace and balance to be in a good position, the class to be competitive late and the stamina to see it out. I always look at the dosage profiles for this race. Midak's looks okay rather than nailed-on but 20 is a lowish overall score for the figures to be reliable.

DP = 1-1-13-5-0 (20) DI = 0.74 CD = -0.10

Footstepsinthesand never got the chance to prove he'd stay and his best progeny's best ratings were at 7f/1m, with a maximum OR of 121.

More doubts there than in a chainsmoker's ashtray...

Simon Rowlands doesn't seem in any doubt about Midak's staying the trip based on his striding pattern. Second only to Lambourn in that regard.
 
Stamina alone doesn't win Derbies, though,
Err, I would like to think that you know that I know THAT, Maurice! 😂

But when my weather app is telling me 17mm further rain could be coming, so it could yet turn out to be a Teenoso beats Carlingford Castle type of year, having a horse that would probably get the Leger trip might be a boon! 😂

All depends on the weather for me at this stage.
 
Hang on a minute ... Is this rain thing becoming a little overdone?
5 mm today.
A little bit more tomorrow and Saturday but not as much as today.
On the parched ground of Surrey.
It'll probably just be regular good ground.
There wasn't quite as much yesterday as I was expecting so, yes, overdone so far, but there's more bad weather on the way apparently, just a question of how bad.

I'm happy to bet based on what hasn't yet happened in these scenarios as the upside (mudlark price collapses) if it materialises is usually bigger than the downside (mudlark mild price easing) if it doesn't.
 


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