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The 2025 Derby

The Lion in Winter is back into favourite. So I am guessing he has come out of the Dante very well although bar cantering, they are unlikely to have done much more with him by now.

I had a very interesting conversation with the step-mother of a lad who rode out at Ballydoyle last year and TLiW was his Sunday ride. She said the horse suffers from really bad foot problems which I would think means he gets corns and bruises easily and that's what kept him off course for such a long time. Its a slight concern for me that he may nor enjoy running down hill or on an awkward camber if that's the case. That said the rest of the conversation was fascinating. They went out to visit son and she said the place is in a different world even to the one she was expecting. Even down to the air quality and humidity....they build test stables and monitor to see what works best. The sheer advanced nature of the facilities was mind-blowing to her and I couldn't keep up with the number of things she was telling me about. So I am sure that foot problems are one thing they are able to cope with.
 
No foot no horse. Foot problems don't go away alas.
Rip Van Winkle was another with foot problems here; he performed a little in and out on the racecourse and was a fiasco of a sire, though undoubtedly a very decent racehorse on his day.
Nearly forty years ago while seeing practice in Coolmore I spied a ventilation report of the stabling in Coolmore and Ballydoyle.
The Ballydoyle stables got an AA++ report that time .
 
As stated on my unofficial blog in Chit Chat, there was a time when you wouldn't touch an also ran in the Dante with a barge pole at Epsom, but the last two Derby winners from that yard both ran shockers in the 2,000 Guineas on their previous outing.

The Lion In Winter is ludicrously short on paper, but the same might have been said of Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy.

That outfit can never be discounted.
 
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All I'd add is, whereas City Of Troy and Auguste Rodin were both Group 1 winners at two who clearly ran well below par in the Guineas, The Lion In Winter is an Acomb winner who was 4l sixth in the Dante.

The other two had the top-class form in the locker to return to, whereas The Lion In Winter has never even run in a Group 1, let alone won one.
 
Ryan Moore will ride the Lion In Winter. Delacroix is an average horse that's beat nothing. Look at Green Impact in the Guineas.
 
edgt said:
No foot no horse. Foot problems don't go away alas.
Rip Van Winkle was another with foot problems here; he performed a little in and out on the racecourse and was a fiasco of a sire, though undoubtedly a very decent racehorse on his day.
Nearly forty years ago while seeing practice in Coolmore I spied a ventilation report of the stabling in Coolmore and Ballydoyle.
The Ballydoyle stables got an AA++ report that time .
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Yes it would worry me with him coming down the hill. He was a bit scratchy going to post at York. RVW I do remember having poor feet. I saw him at the Breeder's Cup and they looked awful then. Bosra Sham was another who really struggled with her feet - bit flat shelly feet always prone to corns and bruises.
 
After Field Of Gold confirmed the merit of this year's 2,000 Guineas in the Irish equivalent at The Curragh on Saturday, Ruling Court's Derby prospects are surely enhanced.

In any sane world a 2,000 Guineas winner who has the highest OR in the field and is by a Belmont (1m4f) winner out of a dam by a Derby winner would be favourite ahead of a Group 3 winner as a 2yo who was only sixth in a Group 2 on his reappearance.

Unlike Auguste Rodin and City Of Troy, The Lion In Winter doesn't even as yet have Group 1 form to bounce back to.

Win or lose, his odds are madness and in any other yard he'd be at least 16/1 and probably bigger tbh.
 
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He is a bad price but I'm against Ruling Court on stamina grounds. Winning a Belmont doesn't mean Justify was a proper 12f horse and he has hardly any 12f performers. City of Troy was (although his best form was over shorter) but he was out of a Galileo mare and he imparts more stamina than HC.
 
Chris Cook put up 4 outsiders for consideration this morning.
1 Stanhope Gardens 20/1 placed behind Ruling Court and Delacroix last year.
2 Puppet Master 50/1 Aiden's front running Lingfield Trial winner.
If Shamie could ride him he could be fun !
3 Lazy Griff 66/1. Runner up in Chester vase. Needs rain but getting it now.
4 Al Wasl Storm 150/1.
Owner had Hoo Ya Mal and Khalifa Sat placed at big odds in the past few years and his Chester win proves the track should be no bother.
 
Euronymous said:
He is a bad price but I'm against Ruling Court on stamina grounds. Winning a Belmont doesn't mean Justify was a proper 12f horse and he has hardly any 12f performers. City of Troy was (although his best form was over shorter) but he was out of a Galileo mare and he imparts more stamina than HC.
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I always respect your opinions and it would be beyond boring if we all agreed all the time.

Justify clocked 2m28.18s when he won his Belmont and he's already sired a Derby winner, so I've zero concerns on the sire's side of the pedigree.

The dam sire High Chaparral has produced winners of the 2m4f Prix Du Cadran and the 2m Melbourne Cup, he's got a 12% strike rate with stock at 1m4f-1m5f, his joint-highest percentage at any trip segment, and he outstayed Hawk Wing to win The Derby himself, so no concerns there either.

My main concerns are the dam herself, who seemed best at 1m110yds, is related to some similar mile influences and Ruling Court's career to date - he's clearly rapid.

He pulverised them for foot in Meydan and has quickened up well at the end of a 2,000 Guineas run at a moderate early pace.

But I like my historical comparisons and it reminded me of Dancing Brave, who was always "in the van" in a slowly-run Guineas before overwhelming Green Desert at the business end.

Dancing Brave was by Lyphard, not necessarily bred to stay 1m4f, but he should have won The Derby (I was there in the press box on the line and I'll never forget it) and he did win the King George and the Prix De L'Arc De Triomphe.

Ruling Court has to go to Epsom favourite on my tissue and if William Buick rides him as if stamina is no issue, thus avoiding a Greville Starkey-esque nightmare, I think Ruling Court is even money to properly stay the trip and, if he properly stays, he wins, simple as that.
 
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edgt said:
Chris Cook put up 4 outsiders for consideration this morning.
1 Stanhope Gardens 20/1 placed behind Ruling Court and Delacroix last year.
2 Puppet Master 50/1 Aiden's front running Lingfield Trial winner.
If Shamie could ride him he could be fun !
3 Lazy Griff 66/1. Runner up in Chester vase. Needs rain but getting it now.
4 Al Wasl Storm 150/1.
Owner had Hoo Ya Mal and Khalifa Sat placed at big odds in the past few years and his Chester win proves the track should be no bother.
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I took 100/1 Nightwalker the other day. Ran better than the bare result in the Dante.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I took 100/1 Nightwalker the other day. Ran better than the bare result in the Dante.
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I nearly put a note on about this yesterday. Juddmonte Racing Manager, Barry Mahon, gave this a good mention on Racing TV yesterday and referred to him as their Derby horse. Their only other entry is Purview. He did run OK at York, and Barry explained what went wrong. He was doing his best work at the end of the race. I rarely bet Antepost, but did have a small sum with Ladbrokes + boost yesterday at 110/1. He was 66/1 this morning.

I was hoping for better from Tuscan Hills in the Dante, he did travel very well, but then faded tamely. Might be interesting if he stills turns up on Derby Day.
 
Slim said:
Ryan Moore will ride the Lion In Winter. Delacroix is an average horse that's beat nothing. Look at Green Impact in the Guineas.
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Watch The Lion In Winter drift like an absolute barge if Moore gets off it to ride Delacroix instead as O'Brien is hinting he will tonight.
 
Nightwalker now 33s generally, 40s in a couple of places.

Wish I'd mentioned it on the longshot thread when it was still 100/1.

I've only just caught up with the Barry Mahon interview. He did seem very keen to promote Nightwalker ahead of Purview as the Juddmonte operation's Derby horse and gave details of why it didn't quite run its race in the Dante. That's maybe what's behind the drop in price rather than significant money for it.
 
Modern Art = "I could have done that" + "yeah, but you didn't."

Well done for getting the hundreds, Maurice, but, for once, it's "yeah, but you didn't" over putting it up. 😂
 
Slim said:
Ryan Moore will ride the Lion In Winter.
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Whereas right now, that could be shaping up to be quite the inaccurate prophecy.

But one shouldn't count one's chickens and it's never over until it's over.

You may yet be proved right.

We shall see.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Whereas right now, that could be shaping up to be quite the inaccurate prophecy.

But one shouldn't count one's chickens and it's never over until it's over.

You may yet be proved right.

We shall see.
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Aidan O'Brien's comments in today's Racing Post are fairly meaningless. He hasn't said anything that one couldn't deduce for themselves—that is, Moore's mount will depend on The Lion In Winter's work next week.
 
Interesting take on it - and I agree inasmuch as when I read it I thought: "there are Betfair requests to back The Lion In Winter that want hoovering up fast" and indeed there has been a correction overnight - definitely self fulfilling prophecy material.

I'd be mildly surprised if Moore rides The Lion In Winter now, but O'Brien could easily u-turn himself on it in the next week so, as stated, you could yet be vindicated.
 
I think if Moore switches to Delacroix it will be much more to do with the other one disappointing, which to me wouldn’t exactly speak volumes in favour of the yard winning the Derby.
 
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