Yes, I see that, CM, certainly right in the shortlist. The two from from my notes are Grand Karat and Chalk Mountain.
Grand Karat has been entered and pulled out that many time the last few weeks, that they've probably spent more on entrance fees than the 4th place prize money on offer. I noted it at Newcastle where it crossed right over from a low draw, then had to switch right around them all and ROW. I thought it might enjoy 1M on GD - GDfm. Breeding suggest 1M would be OK. There'd been around a 1.5 - 2L pace collapse in that Newcastle race.
Chalk Mountain, if accouting for incidents LTO, could have run to it's mark, maybe 1lb better, However, that was a lower grade and didn't look too strong a race to me. Both good turf runs (Newb class5 and LTO) have been roughly genuine GDFM. Rob Hornby isnlt exactly in great form statistically at the moment either.
This rain they're getting now, I 'think', will turn the course GD - GDfm, with perhaps a patch of GDsft where the round course joins (just that furlong or so there) with the rest of the straight being GDfm. I'm using the turftrax map cmbined with radar and minutecast to come to this assumption. There's only an even pace forecast, but that patch of slower ground may just be in Grand Karats favour, by making the race a little more of a stamina test overall, with the rest of the race on groudn it should really enjoy.
Outsider has seen something, or knows something, I haven't, or don't, regarding Local Hero. I can't see that one turning the form around with Grand Karat on the Newcastle run off 3lbs better terms.
Twisiting Physics with Buick riding is kind of concerning, but wasn't exactly impressive when essentially running in a 3yo race LTO at Carlisle.
No market confidence, but happy with Grand Karat 14/1 EW to medium stakes.