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What are you backing Today? Part 2

Chunky Monkey said:
Taking a chance on Photosynthesis stepping up to 7f.
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Yes, I see that, CM, certainly right in the shortlist. The two from from my notes are Grand Karat and Chalk Mountain.

Grand Karat has been entered and pulled out that many time the last few weeks, that they've probably spent more on entrance fees than the 4th place prize money on offer. I noted it at Newcastle where it crossed right over from a low draw, then had to switch right around them all and ROW. I thought it might enjoy 1M on GD - GDfm. Breeding suggest 1M would be OK. There'd been around a 1.5 - 2L pace collapse in that Newcastle race.

Chalk Mountain, if accouting for incidents LTO, could have run to it's mark, maybe 1lb better, However, that was a lower grade and didn't look too strong a race to me. Both good turf runs (Newb class5 and LTO) have been roughly genuine GDFM. Rob Hornby isnlt exactly in great form statistically at the moment either.

This rain they're getting now, I 'think', will turn the course GD - GDfm, with perhaps a patch of GDsft where the round course joins (just that furlong or so there) with the rest of the straight being GDfm. I'm using the turftrax map cmbined with radar and minutecast to come to this assumption. There's only an even pace forecast, but that patch of slower ground may just be in Grand Karats favour, by making the race a little more of a stamina test overall, with the rest of the race on groudn it should really enjoy.

Outsider has seen something, or knows something, I haven't, or don't, regarding Local Hero. I can't see that one turning the form around with Grand Karat on the Newcastle run off 3lbs better terms.
Twisiting Physics with Buick riding is kind of concerning, but wasn't exactly impressive when essentially running in a 3yo race LTO at Carlisle.

No market confidence, but happy with Grand Karat 14/1 EW to medium stakes.
 
Dingo Bingo said:
Yes, I see that, CM, certainly right in the shortlist. The two from from my notes are Grand Karat and Chalk Mountain.

Grand Karat has been entered and pulled out that many time the last few weeks, that they've probably spent more on entrance fees than the 4th place prize money on offer. I noted it at Newcastle where it crossed right over from a low draw, then had to switch right around them all and ROW. I thought it might enjoy 1M on GD - GDfm. Breeding suggest 1M would be OK. There'd been around a 1.5 - 2L pace collapse in that Newcastle race.

Chalk Mountain, if accouting for incidents LTO, could have run to it's mark, maybe 1lb better, However, that was a lower grade and didn't look too strong a race to me. Both good turf runs (Newb class5 and LTO) have been roughly genuine GDFM. Rob Hornby isnlt exactly in great form statistically at the moment either.

This rain they're getting now, I 'think', will turn the course GD - GDfm, with perhaps a patch of GDsft where the round course joins (just that furlong or so there) with the rest of the straight being GDfm. I'm using the turftrax map cmbined with radar and minutecast to come to this assumption. There's only an even pace forecast, but that patch of slower ground may just be in Grand Karats favour, by making the race a little more of a stamina test overall, with the rest of the race on groudn it should really enjoy.

Outsider has seen something, or knows something, I haven't, or don't, regarding Local Hero. I can't see that one turning the form around with Grand Karat on the Newcastle run off 3lbs better terms.
Twisiting Physics with Buick riding is kind of concerning, but wasn't exactly impressive when essentially running in a 3yo race LTO at Carlisle.

No market confidence, but happy with Grand Karat 14/1 EW to medium stakes.
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Grand Karat was the other possibility for me, so undoubtedly Outsider will have trumped us both the wily fox 😀
 
Believe The Storm. 54/5 on exchanges when withdrawn.. Books 5/1 - 6/1 (couple 13/2).
Yes, they're so very worried about problem gamblers. Give em a good milking, teach them a lesson, try and keep them away. Nice plan.
 
YORK 3:00
EASY PEELER 9/2 EW

24/05/25 HAYD 4:10 EASY PEELER
Slightly slow out of stall (+1L), but made little difference as they went steady early. Crossed to sit behind after they decided to race centre. Then opted to come towards stands side (not that this cost it much (0.5L). Was just last to act, but couldn't get between runners, so checked and came to inside, rattled home after responding to a smack with whip. Showed determination, and looks likely to continue progressing this year. Looks sure to pick up a race off this sort of mark, and perhaps showed here (with it's finishing speed against those not slowing), that it outclassed this lot. Couldn't see what happened to it after line, but did respond well for a smack, wasn't a blistering turn of foot visually, but considering the horses in front had plenty of energy and weren't slowing, it obviously was powerful at the end.
Will have been spotted by everyone, but looks like it might start climbing the class ladder this season. Was good prize money on offer here for a class 4. Rated 78 is at the right end of the HCP to go up through the ranks. Can see it leveling out rated in the mid - high 90's and taking it's chances in average class 2's.

CONCLUSION
Running in an average class2, ground should be ok. Is a 3yo taking on older horses and usually wait another 2 -3 weeks. Is at the right end of HCP though, so can understand impatience for better prize money (grab as much as possible off low weights). Is entered again over 6F at York on Saturday in a better race than this. Will it be running with a penalty tomorrow and smashed off the boards? I hope so.

I can't do this, but I would suggest watching the race live with your chosen bookies page open on tomorrows race. Currently 20/1, so if Easy Peeler is cruising and looking to sprint clear (it does have a turn of foot), grab the 20's about tomorrow if you can. I know there's a delay in TV footage, but if it looks a question of jockey pressing the button, you might be able to grab the 20's in time. Not sure what's in the shops now, but I recall the SIS feed being quite a bit quicker than the TV at home. That was 25 years ago though, so no idea now. If you're actually at York races today with phone in hand, that would be the way to go. All hypothetical though at the moment.

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Runners I won't be backing today, but interested in.

YORK 1:50 YAASER
Looks like it's come back to form, but yard not statistically as good as a few weeks ago. Amie Waugh riding I'm taking as a negative too. Zero value at 6's and I wouldn't be interested in even a small EW at 12's. Interesting runner nevertheless.

CHES 2:15 KAMEKIST
I had noted it at Windsor on the 5th and backed it EW LTO at Haydock. Does look slightly well in, as ran a good race LTO, but drawn out in stall 13 is too much of a negative. I also have a dislike of Chester for betting purposes and for the same reason, the need for an extra thick notebook when reviewing replays from there.

SAND 2:40 MUSTAZEED
Might run really well if there's a serious downpour (SFT/HVY). Looks likely to be GDsft at slowest. So on that note, looks a touch high in weights for this, could run well, but probably come up just a few lbs short, even if running to it's best on likely ground.

YORK 4:10 SOVEREIGN SEA
BURITO up 10lbs, SS up 8lbs, Jockey taking 5lb off, so a 7lb swing. I can't trust it, as just does not want to lead. That might have been sorted at home somehow, but I don't think it will have been. Burrito open to imp, but HCPer 'could' have hold of it, though maybe it's still well in due to more improvement? RON O could run a big race, but probably needs the run. Also a little confused with yard change, as Ray Craggs owns the horse. Can someone explain that to me (I'm not big on trainers/owners other that checking stats)?
Anyway, no headgear tried, so leaving SS alone today. Very interesting so see how Jockey handles the horse when things get serious.
 
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Outsider said:
Well done dingo
I'm a bit gutted at the sp.i only had 4 /1 and 16/5
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I was suprised at the SP too.
I was tired when I made that suggestion earlier. I later realised I could back it EW, then if it lost today, quickly cash out. It's 1lb out of the HCP tomorrow and will have a 6lb penalty, but I'm on at the big odds for 6 places.
I can't see it winning tomorrow, as it didn't scoot clear today. The place return isn't too bad, but to keep the bet it feels like I'm tossing away the win element. For todays performance, I think the HCPer will put it up to around 85 from 79, which is tomorrows penalty. Will get more cover tomorrow
It'll also mean MAELSTROM is 6lbs better off for the Haydock encounter, while I don't expect Easy Peeler to improve from todays run, it has possibly impoved a little since Haydock, which was it's seasonal debut, so parhaps a little more than Maelstrom has since then. It's tight between them.
There's also these thundertorms to consider. Along with American Style and a few others. With the uncertainty of these potential heavy downpours, I'm geting out. It's drifting back out a bit now, having initially dropped ot 10's and 9's.
 
CHES 2:15 KAMEKIST (NR)
Looks like they wern't happy with stall 13.

SAND 2:40 MUSTAZEED (NR)
Didn't get the heavy rain it needed.

The pair of them have been entered quite a bit over the 5 day stages, especially Kamekist.
 


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